Crisis Over (or NOT) ?

About: A selection of pertinent cartoons from Townhall.Com

~Is the crisis over now that Obama has his historic slush fund past congress?
Drudge headlines follow:
DIRE EMERGENCY CANCELLED:

Obama Declares: Economic crisis 'not as bad as we think'...

Summers: 'Excess of fear' must be broken...

Retail sales not as bad as feared...



Rally Fizzles: Is This the End of the Line?
Is Obama selling short?
A crisis is a terrible thing to waste!
-Rham

Tags

  1. obamanomics
  2. dow
  3. predictions
  4. kramer

Comments


Seth says
It's a good question.  Below is the DJI since the great depression (first graph, max years).  Looks to me that we have a ways to go if it is going to be as deep.  On the other hand do we have a dead cat bounce going on right now, or the start of a recovery (second graph, 3 months)?  But what i find entertaining is the humiliation of Kramer by John Stuart.  Let me know if you missed the first installment and i'll go look up the URL.  Sales this month has been a little better than last year and up from January, in part due to our outrageous price on the MP3 player where we even beat WalMart.  If you run your business on good solid value, i think you will be able to weather the storm.
...







Mark de LA says
I didn't watch Jon Stewart he had too much Bush Derrangement Syndrome for me to watch very long the last time I watched him.  However here is a cartoon summing up his program:


Mark de LA says
Notice your first graph appears logarithmic.

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-03-13 11:39:18 11621
MR 2009-03-13 11:26:05 11621
Notice your first graph appears logarithmic.
The stock prices go up in direct proportion (not log).  Maybe your talking about the volume ... yeah that might look logarithmic for short section there.  Normally i skip the daily show too, but you will be missing some entertainment if you miss the Kramer vs Stuart tapes ... it almost symbolizes the whole crash.  I can't watch Mad Money very long either ... too gimmicky, but ever so once in a while i watch it for the entertainment, but there are many who watch it for the stock tips ... well maybe that may be a thing of the past.  I watch CNBC every morning ... also mostly for the entertainment and because i am a tracking junkey ... i like to track change.
Well, I don't watch either.  The first time I saw Kramer I thought he was bipolar.


Mark de LA says
~somebody gets the point


Seth says
source: Kramer on this "dead cat bounce"
Cramer said the hedge fund managers were looking for bad news this week. A former hedge fund manager himself, he said he knows how these guys think, and outlined the 10 bits of news these fund managers were hoping not to hear this week.

1. Positive comments from Obama. Hedge funds hated any positive comments about the markets.

2. News about China doing well. Hedge funds want China to remain in the doldrums for awhile longer.

3. Better-than-expected retail sales figures. Hedge funds needed to see a weaker consumer.

4. The uptick rule. Hedge funds are reeling at the thought of the uptick rule being reinstated.

5. A profitable Bank Of America (BAC). Hedge funds were hoping for a government takeover, not a solvent entity.

6. A scared Warren Buffett. Instead the famed investor offered some hope for the future.

7. General Electric (GE) downgraded hard. Hedge funds wanted the bellwether's ratings slashed big, not small.

8. Analyst downgrades. Funds were looking for more downgrades, but the few upgrades they got instead.

9. An even bigger rally. With a market up even more, there would've likely been a big reversal to capitalize on.

10. No more takeovers. Instead, hedge funds saw takeovers picking up steam, with company after company seizing low prices to make acquisitions.

Since all of these came true, the spiral of bad news has been broken, and the hedge funds will have to change course. And that's why Cramer feels the market could see Dow 8,000 before the rally is over.
... We will see.  I say that we will see 7,000 again before we see 8,000.  This is not over yet.

Mark de LA says
It all depends upon how much Obama says about the economy & how much he & Pelosi start to push a Porkulus-II. If Obama says nothing then Kramer is right.

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-04-02 08:37:53 11621
seth 2009-03-14 13:56:49 11621
MR 2009-03-14 12:51:04 11621
It all depends upon how much Obama says about the economy & how much he & Pelosi start to push a Porkulus-II. If Obama says nothing then Kramer is right.
... sorry i can't think like that ... i like to think with sharper edges.  Kramer is right here if, and only if  "the Dow sees 8,000 before the rally is over" .  I made the edge sharper by defining what constitutes the rally being over.  So now this is something that will be decided (unless the dow remains above 7000 and below 8000 forever).  Obama will obviously continue to run his mouth, so according to you Kramer is already right.
Now this is one of those stimulus/responses on fbi that qualifies as "bullshit" ... in case you were confused about my use of the word.   Is it fun?  Idk, i'm doing this one for my own titillation.
Kramer's prediction has been vindicated ... today the Dow went above 8000 and Wall street declared and official bull market.
Well, it's interesting to observe that Obama is out of the country this week!  Some very confusing economic news in this article. Some news today suggests the economy was already recovering some says it's getting worse.

Mark de LA says
Someone should do a correlation between Obama talking on the economy, presenting budgets & porkulus & spinning his plans versus the rise & fall of the stock markets. I say his silence is golden!


Seth says
MR 2009-03-14 14:07:27 11621
Someone should do a correlation between Obama talking on the economy, presenting budgets & porkulus & spinning his plans versus the rise & fall of the stock markets. I say his silence is golden!

Apparently not ... as soon as he started talking positively about the economy and especially after he suggested people might want to invest in the market, it went up by about 700 points in 4 days.

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-03-14 14:38:31 11621
MR 2009-03-14 14:07:27 11621
Someone should do a correlation between Obama talking on the economy, presenting budgets & porkulus & spinning his plans versus the rise & fall of the stock markets. I say his silence is golden!

Apparently not ... as soon as he started talking positively about the economy and especially after he suggested people might want to invest in the market, it went up by about 700 points in 4 days.
source: ...
One afternoon last week, cable news viewers saw, at the top of their screens, the president launching yet another magnificent intention -- the disassembly and rearrangement of the 17 percent of the economy that is health care. The bottom of their screens showed the Dow plunging 281 points. Surely the top of the screen partially explained the bottom.
...



Mark de LA says
~ watch out for the whiplash!


Mark de LA says
~


Mark de LA says
seth 2009-03-16 16:47:55 11621
What's funny is how the cartoonist (above) chopped up what was a very profound quote:  "It's never as good as people say it is when they say it's good, and it's never as bad as people say it is when they say it's bad."  Something to keep in mind when people make dire or rosy predictions. 
Whose quote?

Mark de LA says
So.... he's either wise or hyping & spinning to rob the taxpayers - hmmm.... both? neither?

Seth says
MR 2009-03-16 17:22:50 11621
seth 2009-03-16 16:47:55 11621
What's funny is how the cartoonist (above) chopped up what was a very profound quote:  "It's never as good as people say it is when they say it's good, and it's never as bad as people say it is when they say it's bad."  Something to keep in mind when people make dire or rosy predictions. 
Whose quote?
Summers said that quoting the president. 
source: McConnell and Summers on This Week
SUMMERS: George, no one can make that -- no one can make that judgment. You know, the president said something else that was very wise. He said, you know, "It's never as good as people say it is when they say it's good and it's never as bad as people say it is when they say it's bad."
... However i will bet that the quote came originally from somewhere else. It also appears on this page, June 2008.  

Seth says
seth 2009-03-14 13:56:49 11621
MR 2009-03-14 12:51:04 11621
It all depends upon how much Obama says about the economy & how much he & Pelosi start to push a Porkulus-II. If Obama says nothing then Kramer is right.
... sorry i can't think like that ... i like to think with sharper edges.  Kramer is right here if, and only if  "the Dow sees 8,000 before the rally is over" .  I made the edge sharper by defining what constitutes the rally being over.  So now this is something that will be decided (unless the dow remains above 7000 and below 8000 forever).  Obama will obviously continue to run his mouth, so according to you Kramer is already right.
Now this is one of those stimulus/responses on fbi that qualifies as "bullshit" ... in case you were confused about my use of the word.   Is it fun?  Idk, i'm doing this one for my own titillation.
Kramer's prediction has been vindicated ... today the Dow went above 8000 and Wall street declared and official bull market.

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-04-02 09:44:54 11621
source: MR above
Some news today suggests the economy was already recovering some says it's getting worse.
Well our sales in March were up over March last year ... the only down month this year has been January but that was probably due to a exceptionally strong January last year.  It is also possible that our increased sales reflect the faster more reliable web hosting.  As to the rest of the economy i don't know.  Wall street likes bull markets and me thinks they try to create them whether they are warranted by real economic trends or not.  Then too the dollar dropped about 1 cent (1%) last night so me thinks that needs to be subtracted from the 300 point gain today which is probably mostly due to the prospect of relaxing of the mark-to-market rule. </economic rambel>
     Your fascinating pseudo html label notwithstanding, one of the things that has always amused me is the gambling nature of the stock-market. The huge amount of mumbo-jumbo & witchcraft used to pretend that most of it is just pure gambling. If it was science & mathematics then it should all be certainty. Some will say that markets are just too complex to wrap your mind around & so it is de facto gambling.
     I think that part of the eventual threefoldness underpinnings of a future economic life-blood of society will show up as less gambling & more directing capital to enterprises which support vital human needs & those things which should be free of economic influence like education & health care. The challenge is getting the right people doing the directing & not the government. It would be fun to model such.
 

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-04-02 10:26:21 11621
source: MR wishes for
a future economic life-blood of society will show up as less gambling & more directing capital to enterprises which support vital human needs & those things which should be free of economic influence like education & health care.
..., then you don't wish for a free market run by the self interest of capital gains ?
When all parties in a free market negotiate with each other, removing impositions from government, unions & corporations you will find that things have a different flavor than greed! We certainly don't have a free market today with tariffs, oil cartels, & nations jockeying for power & domination. Most people actually want to earn their keep & have a sense of worth out of what they are doing. When humankind develops the finest sense of what the Golden Rule is really all about this area will accelerate beyond our wildest imagination.  Right now it is going through spasmodic involutions, evolutions & revolutions.

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