Hope & Change the Iran Way

~Don't hold your breath for either!

Tags

  1. iran
  2. 2009 iran election
  3. historical tracking
  4. ayatollah montazeri
  5. liveleak
  6. iran elections

Comments


Seth says
There has been some Iran news over the weekend that has not gotten much play in the media.  First is that Rafsanjani meets (or is going to meet?) with high ranking clerics in Qom.  This is important because it shows that there is a serious rift between the Mullahs and not just between the government and the streets.  Second is that the most senior panel of election monitors acknowledged that election was flawed because the number of votes cast exceeded the actual number of voters.  Those are now facts on the ground. 

In this regard we also get this "insight" from one of my trusted sources on the ME:
source: Robert Fisk
But the Supreme Leader is not a stupid man. So why did he glue himself to Ahmadinejad? Could it be he is worried about another very powerful clergyman who lives in the golden-domed city of Qom, a certain Ayatollah Yazdi who has long feted and praised the aforesaid Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? And is it possible – it is, by the way – that Ayatollah Yazdi would very much like to be the next Supreme Leader?

Good reason then for Khamenei to stand by the President who insisted a halo shone around his head when he addressed the UN.

Because the fundamental conflict in Iran is being fought not on the streets of Tehran – a mere tragic, brutal sideshow that could soon become a bloodbath – but beneath the cupolas and minarets and pale blue tiles of the mosques of Qom.
... At some point this kind of info might inform a prediction about the fate of the uprising.

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-06-22 10:09:30 12104
source: MR above
but we also have a free press & the right to assembly enshrined in the first amendment to the U.S. Constitution
Yep ... also institutions like the ACLU to defend our rights .
source: about the ACLU
"So long as we have enough people in this country willing to fight for their rights, we'll be called a democracy." - ACLU Founder Roger Baldwin

There is some evidence that Roger Baldwin was a communist. Go figure.

Seth says
source: MR above
but we also have a free press & the right to assembly enshrined in the first amendment to the U.S. Constitution
Yep ... also institutions like the ACLU to defend our rights .
source: about the ACLU
"So long as we have enough people in this country willing to fight for their rights, we'll be called a democracy." - ACLU Founder Roger Baldwin


Mark de LA says
Well, I heard of the election I assumed that Ahmadinejad would win.  It is almost as easy to predict Russian elections.  That any protests would occur was somewhat of a surprise. We had a disputed election w/ Gore v Bush in 2000 - no burning things, no riots, no killing in the streets (a la Rodney King) - just a lot of bloviating.  We do have riot control in this country as well, but we also have a free press & the right to assembly enshrined in the first amendment to the U.S. Constitution.  It's all about FREEDOM! Which is universal.
(**)
Braveheart

Seth says
source: MR about my comment 2009-06-22 09:03:21
~btw, you left barbs in.
Yeah one slipped in about the media you frequent garbeling ... sorry about that.

I don't see why Obama would have been surprised by the election protest, when even an uninformed person like myself was thinking about it ... too bad i didn't publish my thoughts in advance.  Had Obama lost with widespread suspicion of election fraud, you would have seen similar protests in this country.  It was a no brainer.  It was even pretty easy to anticipate that Ahmadinejad would steal the election when there was a last minute surge of popularity of his primary opponent.  But your right, if the regime successfuly supresses this uprising, then it does not bode well for any progress on the issue of nukes.  On the other hand if the uprising continues to gain momentum, then we may have a dramatic change of government in Iran and that may be very promising.  At the moment i cannot forsee anythying that running his mouth will accomplish, but let us hope that Obama is doing everything in his power behind the scenes to assist. 

Mark de LA says
~btw, you left barbs in.  In any case, I think Obama was surprised by the Iran election protests. It seems to derail his talk directly to Ahmadinejad thingy which he had high hopes for on his World stage. If the Ferengi prevails then he will be even more or an asshole.  Don't ask for any links or references for my statements as they seem to inferior to your already made up mind anyway.

Seth says
MR 2009-06-22 06:58:23 12104
seth 2009-06-21 16:28:11 12104
MR 2009-06-21 16:01:02 12104
Except ours (1776) !
Was that a failed revolution?  That's distressing to hear.
Well, I guess ours wasn't a failure. Then again, we had the help of the French & the Germans of that time. The wait & see policy sometimes just dooms the struggle. In this case it's hard to see who are the good guys. One can always take a stand for democracy & freedom though, and against repression of human rights!

Well there is no question at all that the WH has taken a stand for democracy and freedom, you can read it here in case the media you frequent garbled it.  It is also no secret why the administration does not take a more aggressive stance.  Henry Kissinger said it better than i can: "I think the president has handled this well. Anything that the United States says that puts us totally behind one of the contenders, behind Mousavi, would be a handicap for that person."  It was reported on CNN this morning that the administration is listening to spokesmen from the resistance.  [RWG barb omitted in hopes of more rational dialogue.]

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-06-21 16:28:11 12104
MR 2009-06-21 16:01:02 12104
Except ours (1776) !
Was that a failed revolution?  That's distressing to hear.
Well, I guess ours wasn't a failure. Then again, we had the help of the French & the Germans of that time. The wait & see policy sometimes just dooms the struggle. In this case it's hard to see who are the good guys. One can always take a stand for democracy & freedom though, and against repression of human rights!


Seth says
Good find on  LiveLeak .  The script as i read it now goes that the Iranian government will be able to suppress the uprising.  The regime will become more oppressive and militaristic.   I think even the Mullahs will loose some power to the military.  I would expect Ahmadinejad to take a more agressive stance twards US and Israel as a diversion from his domestic problems.  Nothing unites a government more than a foreign enemy.  Me thinks it is too early to call it a revolution.  A failed revolution ends us in the Historry books as just a riot.

Mark de LA says
Attempted Iran media clampdown meets Internet age!

Seth says
Today Iran's most senior Islamic cleric threw his weight behind opposition charges that Ahmadinejad's re-election was rigged. ...
source: Translation of Ayatollah Montazeri's letter from a blog.

In the name of God

People of Iran

These last days, we have witnessed the lively efforts of you, brothers and sisters, old and young alike, from every social category, for the 10th presidential elections.

Our youth, hoping to see their rightful will fulfilled, came on the scene and waited patiently. This was the greatest occasion for the government’s officials to bond with their people.

However, unfortunately, they used it in the worst way possible. Declaring results that no one in their right mind can believe, and despite all the evidence of crafted results, and contrary to the people’s protestations, in front of the eyes of the same nation who carried the weight of a revolution and 8 years of war, in front of the eyes of local and foreign reporters, attacked the children of the people with astonishing violence. And now they are attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals, political opponents and Scientists.

Now, based on my religious duties, I will remind you:

1- A legitimate state must respect all points of view. It may not oppress critical views. I fear that this will lead to the loss of people’s faith in Islam.

2- Given the current circumstances, I expect the government to take all measures to restore people’s confidence. Otherwise, as I have already said, a government not respecting the people’s vote has no religious or political legitimacy.

3- I invite everyone, especially the youth, to continue reclaiming their dues calmly, and not to allow those who want to associate this movement with chaos succeed.

4- I ask the police and army personnel not to “sell their religion”, and be aware that receiving orders will not excuse them before God. Recognize the protesting youth as your children. Today, censorship and cutting telecommunication lines can not hide the truth.

I pray for the greatness of the Iranian people.

Note that Ayatollah Montazeri is a member of the Guardian Council, and is a a leader of the 1979 Islamic revolution who's often feuded with Khamenei and once vied with him for the supreme leader's position, Montazeri accused the government of attacking "the children of the people with astonishing violence" and "attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals, political opponents and scientifics." (Thanks McClatchy)  He is no light weight. 

Seth says
Latest Update on Iran's Election turmoil.

Mark de LA says
It will be interesting to see if the mid-term elections cut down one or both of the houses of Congress so that Obama has to work with them instead of ramming his programs through without talking to the other side (see the proposed ABC "non-infomercial" infomercial on his healthcare that will have no opposing sides presented. 


Seth says
MR 2009-06-17 20:59:09 12104

Seth: ...
Yes pretty good analysis.  But your own choices are apparent in your writing ... some time try to write your analysis sans that.  For example you might characterize Liberals as more secular than conservatives, not "fairly anti-religious" ... and Liberals want values and principals too .. that is not just the domain of conservatives.

...
Yep, I generalized. The edge I experience from liberals is more anti religious rather than pro secular. I will cite the ACLU as prime example & the removing of God from about everything governmental (even though God is relatively non-denominational).  Liberals want values but find the politics of class & diversity more politically beneficial for gaining power.
To be secular is to disparage the governments involvement with religion.  That is what we Liberals want.  We don't want a regime like Iran where the priests control the people.  It is a twist to say that we are anti-religious.  Organizations like the ACLU guard our freedoms ... if you respect our open society, then you should support their efforts. Liberals support equality of opportunity for all people.    Conservatives seem to be just for the advantaged, and fight efforts to level the playing field. Your ranks are dwindling, you may find that affecting your political power.  Now there are things to be said for both sides of the fense.  Conservatives are for minimizing government ... that's a good thing. 

Useful political analysis acknowledges the other side of the coin, rather than just ignoring it. That's what i find lacking in most of your analysis.   You should learn from our president.  He does acknowledge the other side.

Seth says
I think this one nails it, thanks TheWeek ...

But seriously, this situation is still in flux ... some of the best images i found here.


Mark de LA says
Good find of pictures. I wonder how many of those in the pics will end up in some jail or worse. Then again, like the riots that ended the Soviet Union one can hope for a change.


Mark de LA says
maybe just one more....


Seth says
Correction: Ayatollah Montazeri is not a member of the Guardian Council.  Hot Air, perhaps, sheds some more light.

Mark de LA says
~Montazeri seems to have a level head. There may be hope & change yet.  I wonder who between the supreme leader & Montazeri is the most senior ayatollah.


Mark de LA says
~ I like the timeline of the newsfront on this topic provided by the Google news website when I chased some of the 8K plus articles link:

 It is one way of documenting the cloud. This newsfront has several piles with probably a many-to-many mapping. In this one where the front began is fairly clear as it was tied to a particular election in Iran. With some other things it may be unclear where the mess begins & where it is going. group UnhackTheBrain is gaining tools.

Seth says
source: MR above
It is one way of documenting the cloud. This newsfront has several piles with probably a many-to-many mapping. In this one where the front began is fairly clear as it was tied to a particular election in Iran.
Interesting the first i became aware of the Khamenei vs Montazeri connection was today, June 17, yet the graph here shows a dramatic dip in the activity today.  I guess this is not rocket science yet.

Seth says
MR 2009-06-17 12:03:28 12104
seth 2009-06-17 11:50:23 12104
source: MR above
I wonder who between the supreme leader & Montazeri is the most senior ayatollah.

Well there is a lot of infromation about Montazeri on the web now ... here is his Wikipedia article.  Obviously the term "most senior ayatollah", which came from the McClatchy article, was a misnomer - probably a bad translation.

This article might imply that his is not as anti-semitic as the current supreme leader.  But this, from Wikipedia, might imply that he is not much better from a western point of view ...
source: Wikipedia
Reputation:
Montazeri has been described by his allies as "brilliant," down-to-earth, unpretentious, plain spoken, and as one who "lives plainly, and equates Islam with social justice" and stays above political infighting. His detractors have portrayed him as stubborn and naive in his insistence that the Islamic republic find reconciliation with the "Hypocrites and Liberals" who are its "internal enemies."
... Strange how these "extremist Ayatollas" seem to rag like you do against Liberals.  Might that give you pause to think?

Those in power are called the conservatives in Iran - the theocrats.  Those who love freedom & more secular lives are the liberals. It's a distorted mirror of this country; neither a reflection nor a direct translation. Liberals in this country are fairly anti-religious, but want bigger & bigger government which by it's very nature restricts freedoms. Conservatives tend to want Christian (or otherwise) religious values & principles, but want smaller government & more freedom from regulations & the burden of taxes required by bigger & bigger government.
 

Yes pretty good analysis.  But your own choices are apparent in your writing ... some time try to write your analysis sans that.  For example you might characterize Liberals as more secular than conservatives, not "fairly anti-religious" ... and Liberals want values and principals too .. that is not just the domain of conservatives.

Mark de LA says
Nice little aside, now back to the subject.
LiveLeak has some disturbing videos from the streets in Iran. From the demonstrations one can almost assume that there is another revolution going on. I guess Iran is not as tightly controlled in the media area as the mullahs would like.

Seth says
This needs to be said here ... World's First Twitter Revolution ... (Thanks McClatchy) ...





Seth says
More analysis of the political factions in Iran.

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-06-17 13:01:39 12104
source: MR above
It is one way of documenting the cloud. This newsfront has several piles with probably a many-to-many mapping. In this one where the front began is fairly clear as it was tied to a particular election in Iran.
Interesting the first i became aware of the Khamenei vs Montazeri connection was today, June 17, yet the graph here shows a dramatic dip in the activity today.  I guess this is not rocket science yet.
Mine tracked the Khamenei vs Montazeri tokens yours probably tracked something else it all depends upon which pile you check on. 

Mark de LA says

Seth: ...
Yes pretty good analysis.  But your own choices are apparent in your writing ... some time try to write your analysis sans that.  For example you might characterize Liberals as more secular than conservatives, not "fairly anti-religious" ... and Liberals want values and principals too .. that is not just the domain of conservatives.

...
Yep, I generalized. The edge I experience from liberals is more anti religious rather than pro secular. I will cite the ACLU as prime example & the removing of God from about everything governmental (even though God is relatively non-denominational).  Liberals want values but find the politics of class & diversity more politically beneficial for gaining power.

Mark de LA says
~Hope & Change go bye-bye as Iran declares no vote nullification


Mark de LA says
Then there is some evidence that Obama doesn't want to fuck up his diplomacy with Iran. For example his planned invitation to diplomats to 4th of July celebration at US Embassies is still on.
source: ...

WASHINGTON (AFP)The United States said Monday its invitations were still standing for Iranian diplomats to attend July 4 celebrations at US embassies despite the crackdown on opposition supporters.

President Barack Obama's administration said earlier this month it would invite Iran to US embassy barbecues for the national holiday for the first time since the two nations severed relations following the 1979 Islamic revolution.

"There's no thought to rescinding the invitations to Iranian diplomats," State Department spokesman Ian Kelly told reporters.

"We have made a strategic decision to engage on a number of fronts with Iran," Kelly said. "We tried many years of isolation, and we're pursuing a different path now."

...
... still ass kissing in the Middle East, eh?

Mark de LA says
~ snapshot - more votes than voters must mean that the theocracy has some extra votes from Allah! - the revolution begins to die, not for today.

Timeline of articles

Number of sources covering this story
Iran admits 50 cities had more votes than voters
Times Online - ‎Jun 22, 2009‎
Iran admits vote 'irregularities'
BBC News - ‎22 hours ago‎
Tips to Unravel the Complexities of Iran's Theocracy
FOXNews - ‎19 hours ago‎
Iran election annulment ruled out
BBC News - ‎6 hours ago‎
Iran elections: Guardian Council says there will be no rerun

Mark de LA says
I wonder, here is a curious fact that the WashTimes uncovered. Accordingly
source: ...

Prior to this month's disputed presidential election in Iran, the Obama administration sent a letter to the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling for an improvement in relations, according to interviews and the leader himself.

Ayatollah Khamenei confirmed the letter toward the end of a lengthy sermon last week, in which he accused the United States of fomenting protests in his country in the aftermath of the disputed June 12 presidential election.

... may account for the initial ambivalence to the election protests. Apparently the still remaining members of the axis of evil, Iran & the Norks, are not bending to Obama's silver tongued diplomacy.
 


Mark de LA says
~tyranny under the theocratic robes:


Mark de LA says
seth 2009-06-24 08:44:40 12104
MR 2009-06-24 08:36:52 12104
I wonder, here is a curious fact that the WashTimes uncovered. Accordingly
source: ...

Prior to this month's disputed presidential election in Iran, the Obama administration sent a letter to the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling for an improvement in relations, according to interviews and the leader himself.

Ayatollah Khamenei confirmed the letter toward the end of a lengthy sermon last week, in which he accused the United States of fomenting protests in his country in the aftermath of the disputed June 12 presidential election.

... may account for the initial ambivalence to the election protests. Apparently the still remaining members of the axis of evil, Iran & the Norks, are not bending to Obama's silver tongued diplomacy.
 

Yeah and in other disclosures we find that the Brits secretly met with the Ayatolla ...
source: Tehran Broadcast
In this meeting, the following requests have been made by Ali Khamenei’s representatives:

1. The UK must stop its moral support for the protests and demonstrations in Iran.

2. BBC must stop or tone down its coverage of the election fallout and ensuing upheavals in Iran.

3. The UK must lift the freeze on $1.6 billion Iranian assets in Britain. These assets were frozen in Britain under international sanctions imposed over Tehran’s nuclear program on Thursday, June 18. According to our sources, the assets belong to the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

In return, Khamenei’s representatives have offered to assist the UK and the US, in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In particular, they have offered to stop supporting the Afghan rebel leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
... to which i have only one response: LOL. 

I hope Neda Soltani is enjoying your laughing as much as you do

More reporting here.

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-06-24 12:06:53 12104
MR 2009-06-24 10:09:15 12104
seth 2009-06-24 09:47:23 12104
MR 2009-06-24 09:32:39 12104
seth 2009-06-24 09:28:48 12104
source: MR picks a fight above
I hope Neda Soltani is enjoying your laughing as much as you do
... What kind of bull shit position are you painting me in now?  Obviously I was laughing at the Aytollah's demands.   Neda is a righteous martyr for the cause now, notwithstanding the regime's efforts to discredit her.  Those of you on the right wing in this country seem to glom onto anything to score your little political jabs.  Why don't your cirticize Obama for not declaring a Neda memorial day here in the USA?  LO(fucking)L !
You are not clear what you are laughing at. Perhaps the word Obama melted your mind again. Apparently he was in touch with the Ayatoilet before the elections & maybe that made him certain that he can get away with a stollen election, perhaps not. Anyway, the election there had real consequences - nothing to laugh at! Your stinking partisanship notwithstanding.

Maybe you didn't even read the Ayatollah's demands to the Brits that i published and laughed about.  When you read them what was your reaction? 
Perhaps you should have put your comment in a separate comment so as not to confuse what you were laughing at.  Obama sending overtures to the Ayatollah prior to the election which may have sent him a signal - that was the importance of my post.  You went somewhere else and made fun of it.

Whatever, the syntax of my LOL was quite clear indeed, your lack of reading comprehension notwithstanding.  Your suggestion that Obama "may have sent him a signal" is just the usual hyperpartisan jab that it not funny at all.  I did, however, try to put it in the context of something that gave me a chuckle and at the same time may have served to inform.  I'll bet that the British Defense Secretary got a checkel from it too ... or maybe he puked.
Since you seem to be confused & irrational I suggest you try some detergent to wash ythe stink out your mind & get a brand new start on life - here is my suggestion to do the job (must remove your head out of the sand first!)



Mark de LA says
The recriminations of the election protestings notwithstanding, the Supreme Leader of Iran may be losing his grip on Iran.
Source: ... If Khamenei tries to crush Qom in the way that Khomeini crushed Grand Ayatollah Shariatmadari in Tabriz in 1979/80, he'll probably push Qom into open rebellion. If he tries using the Guards Corps as a vehicle of oppression against the clerical establishment, he would surely risk his office. The unthinkable--being dethroned by the Assembly of [clerical] Experts, the institution that constitutionally has the authority to appoint and remove supreme leaders--would become immediately thinkable. Rafsanjani, who appears to have spent considerable time working on the members of the assembly, as well as on the clerical establishment in Qom, could spring a trap on Khamenei. And if Khamenei were to try to crush Qom, or to ignore and financially starve his foes there, he could run the serious risk of making Grand Ayatollah Sistani an active antagonist. Sistani is not a bold man. He survived in Najaf under Saddam because he kept his head down. He knows how nasty Khamenei can be with foes inside Iraq (he's watched them die). But if Khamenei tries to play hardball, there is a decent chance he will push Sistani, too, into open rebellion. (Sistani's office in Qom is massive; his office in Mashhad, Khamenei's power-base, has reportedly been growing rapidly.) If Najaf and Qom form an axis, which no doubt has already been discussed among the representatives of senior ayatollahs, Khamenei is looking at an unwinnable situation.
...it's kinda like the college of cardinals revolting against the pope (only different).


Seth says
I wonder, how important is this "Association of Researchers and Teachers" ?  But it sure seems that they are sticking their neck out.  

Seth says
Andrew Sullivan reports news from the Iran "uprising", its not over yet.  May F&L triumph!

Mark de LA says
Show trials & torture? The news front of ~1,350 articles is here, but not for long.
My question at this point is what responsibility does the rest of the World have in the face of theocracies which make up their own rules & then torture & kill their subjects to remain in power?
Perhaps in another article someday we can discuss such rationally (or not).  How come we cant get together all nations to speak with one voice & hold one policy? ...& sanctions?

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-08-02 13:45:20 12104
source: MR asks
My question at this point is what responsibility does the rest of the World have in the face of theocracies which make up their own rules & then torture & kill their subjects to remain in power?
Well we have that pesky little international principal of sovereignty.  I'm pretty sure we don't want other countries or the UN telling us what kind of government we can have or how we should treat our citizens.  Me thinks the responsibility your talking about ends at our borders.
Well, yes of course. But, there is the UN. People are also trying to force us into climate change bullshit. People are also trying to force us to get rid of Gitmo. The Islamists are trying to force other countries to rule by Sharia....etc. Osama ben Laden etc... Globalization & Israel vs Palestine.... it's not so clear cut as before.

Mark de LA says
According to this article Iran admits to torturing their protesters.
And here is the Google timeline on how they want to prosecute their opponents.
 
Top Iranian general: Let's prosecute opposition leaders
‎6 hours ago‎ - CNN International
Iran judiciary looks to calm prison abuse outrage
‎19 hours ago‎ - The Associated Press
ANALYSIS-Iran hardliners take gloves off against opponents
‎Aug 9, 2009‎ - Reuters


Mark de LA says
~ now the govt of Iran has goons who pertetrate a bloody suppression of the people who oppose the regime.


Seth says
Iranian Govt. Calls for Friday Rally to Show "Hatred" for Opposition

so what is it we have here now ... in Iran they vote for their regime by registering their hatred?  What is that ... a new style democracy?

It actually might be interesting to track this and see which side demonstrates the greater hate.  Does the side which demonstrates the greater hate actually win ?

Seth says
... and that is tweetable

source: my tweet



...


Mark de LA says
seth 2011-02-16 10:08:47 12104
Iranian Govt. Calls for Friday Rally to Show "Hatred" for Opposition

so what is it we have here now ... in Iran they vote for their regime by registering their hatred?  What is that ... a new style democracy?

It actually might be interesting to track this and see which side demonstrates the greater hate.  Does the side which demonstrates the greater hate actually win ?
Yep, that's the chutzpah method, wherein the regime thinks it will get more "votes" by hating the electorate!


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