The Obama-Prompter

About: pruden: a crucial week for obamas teleprompter - washington times

I like Pruden's writing. A salient point about BHO's spokesman's ridicule of the subject in 12508 is this quote:
WashTimes: ...

Having finally flayed the bones of George W. Bush into a handful of dust, the White House, unable to persuade and convince, in desperation turns its contempt on the American public. The president's press spokesman Monday derided the parents' protest as "an 'Animal House' food fight." This sounds less like strategy than surrender. Mr. Obama was educated at Yale Law School, but a professor at Grinder Switch A&M could have told him that no matter how tempted he may be, a lawyer never insults the jury. The jury gets the last word.


...
I will predict that BHO's speech to Congress will not engage much in specifics but give Congress a choice of contents for his health care plan so that in the end he can't be criticised and Congress will get the blame. Another of his tactics might be anchoring in feel good new buzzwords for the same old shit in a different package. He might also ask for another blank check for a bunch of feel good buzzwords by racheting up crisis mode arguments much the way his stimulus package was marketed. 
... we'll wait & see. 
.... meanwhile

Tags

  1. prediction
  2. bho
  3. health care
  4. cite

Comments


Seth says
A good prediction is stated in a way which can be objectively verified or falsified.  Yours is stated in a way which pretty much guarantees that it will come true for you, at least if he is unsuccessful in passing an effective bill.

I predict that Obama will give more details on the 7 points i though his plan contained:
  1. Leave alone those things that are working.  
  2. Establish a "exchange" where individuals and businesses can choose an affordable private insurance policy where:
    • you cannot be excluded because of preexisting conditions
    • you cannot be canceled if your pay your premiums
  3. Put in the exchange an option of an insurance company administered by the government without profit.  That public option would be restricted to paying claims out of premiums and not out of tax payer money.
  4. Establish a counsel of experts which would establish rules for payment of claims based upon a scientific study of what health care works best.  These rules would be implemented if Congress did not override them.  It is unclear to me what relationship this would have to 1, 2, 3, and medicare - that needs to be researched.
  5. Eliminate known inefficiencies in the delivery of health care.  I'm not quite sure what is covered by these inefficiencies; but a couple come to mind:
    • eliminate Medicare Advantage
    • improve automated medical records
    • eliminate redundant or unnecessary tests (research defensive medicine)
    • skew what is paid for to include more for prevention 
    • skew what is paid for to be not so much for procedures done, but rather for health delivered
    • skew what is paid for to encourage more primary care not so much specialty
  6. Mandate that businesses (and possibly individuals) must have health care policies.  These mandates make the pool of covered individuals much larger making it possible to eliminate the cancellations and exclusions of the current system.
  7. Provide subsidies for people who cannot afford the premiums. It is unclear to me whether the monies for the subsidies would come from premiums collected from the larger pool or whether they would come from tax payer monies.
(3), the public option, will probably be tripped by a trigger.  And (4), the counsel of experts who set payment rates and coverages, will probably be radically revised.  Unfortunately I can't predict whether he will get an effective bill passed or not.

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-09-08 10:20:30 12565
source: MR above
Well, mine was commentary or editorialization (spin if you like) that yours wasn't is an absurdity; rainy NW notwithstanding.
Well If there is any spin in ...
source: seth above
I predict that he will be quite specific about the items i listed above and there will be no choices of contents; rather some things will be left broadly defined.  He will not specify which deviations will cause a veto.
... I missed it.  Of course now we are totally into RWG mode; but for the sake of debugging i'll post the symbol just to see if you can quote respond to it.



Glad to oblige. Yours & mine are all spin because the speech has not been read by the Obamaprompter yet nor the text released - hence no reality.  It is all speculation yours from your point of view & mine from mine.


Mark de LA says
seth 2009-09-08 09:21:44 12565
MR 2009-09-08 09:10:36 12565
seth 2009-09-08 09:07:57 12565
MR 2009-09-08 08:46:57 12565
Mine was a prediction about his speech not whatever happens in Congress or the bill itself, except that he will state things in such a way (in the speech) so that he can't be blamed if Congress goes against him &/or nothing gets done.

I found it hard to isolate your prediction about the speech from the embedded assumption in your second clause that implied the bill would not pass.  Determining his motivation for saying what he is going to say is not falsifiable, hence it is extraneous to any prediction.  Sans that assumption your prediction just yields:  there will be not "much in specifics" and he will "give Congress a choice of contents".  

I predict that he will be quite specific about the items i listed above and there will be no choices of contents; rather some things will be left broadly defined.  He will not specify which deviations will cause a veto. 
Nope! Mine is all about the speech your counter spin notwithstanding.

Yep yours is about the speech, and so  is mine.  I totally do not get that mine contains spin and yours does not.  Sorry, that must be something that obtains down there in dreamy California and not up here in the crystal clear air of the North West.

Well, mine was commentary or editorialization (spin if you like) that yours wasn't is an absurdity; rainy NW notwithstanding.

Seth says
MR 2009-09-08 11:43:50 12565
seth 2009-09-08 10:20:30 12565
source: MR above
Well, mine was commentary or editorialization (spin if you like) that yours wasn't is an absurdity; rainy NW notwithstanding.
Well If there is any spin in ...
source: seth above
I predict that he will be quite specific about the items i listed above and there will be no choices of contents; rather some things will be left broadly defined.  He will not specify which deviations will cause a veto.
... I missed it.  Of course now we are totally into RWG mode; but for the sake of debugging i'll post the symbol just to see if you can quote respond to it.



Glad to oblige. Yours & mine are all spin because the speech has not been read by the Obamaprompter yet nor the text released - hence no reality.  It is all speculation yours from your point of view & mine from mine.

Huh?  Predictions are spin because they haven't happened yet.  I guess weirder worlds have obtained. 

Mostly responding here to see if you broke it.

Mark de LA says
Prediction in the political domain at least often is spin - so are polls.
Wikipedia: ...

In public relations, spin is form of propaganda, achieved through providing an interpretation of an event or campaign to persuade public opinion in favor or against a certain organization or public figure. While traditional public relations may also rely on creative presentation of the facts, "spin" often, though not always, implies disingenuous, deceptive and/or highly manipulative tactics.[1]

Politicians are often accused by their opponents of claiming to be honest and seek the truth while using spin tactics to manipulate public opinion.

Because of the frequent association between "spin" and press conferences (especially government press conferences), the room in which these take place is sometimes described as a spin room. A group of people who develop spin may be referred to as "spin doctors" who engage in "spin doctoring" for the person or group that hired them.[2]


... that's what talking heads do is predict (spinning current events to support their predictions), chase their favorite polls & in some cases lie through their teeth.

Mark de LA says
A sample of the google timeline on the speech tonight is here. Some headlines are building up expectations to a bar that BHO could hardly meet with must do lists & others are lowering the bar so that he could hardly fail. I like to call all that the pre-spin.  We'll see what it looks like after the postgame show.
Will it be just pigma?
?

Mark de LA says
MR 2009-09-09 10:41:12 12565
seth 2009-09-09 09:24:00 12565
Yep, frequently spin is coded as prediction.   Many of the politicians and pundits who went on TV and predicted that there won't be health reform, did so to kill the bill.  Obama went on the same TV and said the opposite, and was spinning too.  These kind of spin, coded as predictions, have the intent to affect outcome.  But sometimes people actually do try to  predict.  Their motivation is to test their knowledge of the situation and their skill in the art of guessing correctly.  It is not always easy to tell the difference.  I don't suppose it would do any good for me to tell you that with me it's always the latter. 
Nope! You would have to convince me that you can think & write without your point of view directing your attention.

In a seminar long long ago we had discussions for creating distinctions & making transformations in ourselves & society.  The first part always was to unconceal & bring out all that was coming to the table, all points of view & agendas - mostly by category & summarized by the moderator. The M$M should be doing that, but they are rather bipolar. When you bring everything to the table you can create out of nothing because nothing is hidden. Today's government has all kinds of hidden agendas - that's why nobody trusts them & the polarity is increasing. It would be quite interesting to create the atmosphere of trust that a room full of ~2000 people ACHIEVED exposing their innermost thoughts while working on the transformation of a company.


Mark de LA says
... meanwhile
Source: ...

What's At Stake Tonight

If the president walks away from the public option and caves in to the smears and lies of the Republican super-minority in Congress, I think there's really only one choice for the progressive left: a Van Jones primary challenge in 2012.


...


Seth says
MR 2009-09-09 11:18:27 12565
MR 2009-09-09 10:41:12 12565
seth 2009-09-09 09:24:00 12565
Yep, frequently spin is coded as prediction.   Many of the politicians and pundits who went on TV and predicted that there won't be health reform, did so to kill the bill.  Obama went on the same TV and said the opposite, and was spinning too.  These kind of spin, coded as predictions, have the intent to affect outcome.  But sometimes people actually do try to  predict.  Their motivation is to test their knowledge of the situation and their skill in the art of guessing correctly.  It is not always easy to tell the difference.  I don't suppose it would do any good for me to tell you that with me it's always the latter. 
Nope! You would have to convince me that you can think & write without your point of view directing your attention.

In a seminar long long ago we had discussions for creating distinctions & making transformations in ourselves & society.  The first part always was to unconceal & bring out all that was coming to the table, all points of view & agendas - mostly by category & summarized by the moderator. The M$M should be doing that, but they are rather bipolar. When you bring everything to the table you can create out of nothing because nothing is hidden. Today's government has all kinds of hidden agendas - that's why nobody trusts them & the polarity is increasing. It would be quite interesting to create the atmosphere of trust that a room full of ~2000 people ACHIEVED exposing their innermost thoughts while working on the transformation of a company.

Well, yeah, creating an atmosphere here on fastblogit where useful dialogue can happen has always been my aim.  Unfortunately i haven't been able to make any progress towards that goal.  The scientific method is forming hypothesis and testing them.  That is like making predictions and seeing if they come true.  The better you are at that the better you are at thinking.  That's why i am a prediction freak.

Mark de LA says
The scientific method when applied to politics is a GIGO process. You need to iterate through all the factors & elements of a domain to get real tranformations. Otherwise you pick & choose the things you want to look at which support your desired outcomes. Let 12568 grow on you! The MacroVU way is a start. Notice that in the health care debate it is mostly about money.  Notice also that nobody is talking about how to make more money so that individuals can buy more health care. They are all looking for the government to fix something & use other people's money to buy it for them. The truly good solution would be to remove health care from the domain of economics into the domain of the spiritual where it once started (Hippocrates et. al.).  Unfortunately, you would have to unconceal a lot of the hidden agenda of BHO & others to do that job.

Seth says
Yep, the 7 points of my comment 2009-09-08 08:37:55 above, are pretty much all there.

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