Facebonked

About: tagroom of items tagged with facebonk

~
 It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I remember when eBay first came out & there was a bru-ha-ha about how to value such a company. That problem is there with facebook.  The primary problem being that as mobile increases & facebook is used by more mobiles that that is where their advertizing is less effective.


ZUCKED!

NASDAQ WOULD HAVE PULLED STOCK....

MORGAN STANLEY Under Review...

Massachusetts subpoenas...

Congress investigates...

Investors Sue...

'The insiders got greedy'...

'They knew the jig was up'...

Even Zuckerberg Sells!

DOOM: FACEBOOK could destroy economy?

Tags

  1. facebook
  2. ipo
  3. zuckerberg
  4. facebonked
  5. stock

Comments


Seth says
M 2012-05-23 12:03:11 16028
seth 2012-05-23 11:52:08 16028
I'm not so very sure that mobile is going to cut into the facebook advertising.   I haven't seen a lot of it there, but then there are so many different mobile platforms, it is a very wide spectrum of appearances indeed.   I do like facebook advertising.   The reason being that it is far more targeted ... or at least can become more and more targeted.  That and it allows you to interact with an ad.  For example i noticed that you liked some ad ... forget what it was .... something about networking i think ... but i knew you cliked on it Mark, because facebook told me ... that made that ad more important to me and it escalated it in my attention.  The other thing i like about facebook ads is that you can hide specific ads you dont like ... and then you get to give feedback about that ad ... for example i didn't like some right wing ad because it had Sarah Palin's face on it ... i clicked that the ad was "sexually explicit".

We probably will be advertising speaktomecatalog.com on Facebook real soon. 
That was not my analysis but someone in the IPO business. The problem is that their business plan involves their only source of income so far which is advertizement. During the last moments before IPO some identified that flaw about their predictions.  If they could polish their social crystal ball well enough to forecast their profit over the next 5 years AND publish it well enough to the investors so that confidence increases then the stock will go up. Otherwise the hype bubble will burst & they will perhaps need private capital to restructure their adventure.  Good ideas like even CyberMind need to have believability & viability in the market place. Otherwise they will bomb & disappear despite their artistic & aesthetic merits.

Yes, there is no doubt that Zuckerburger hyped the IPO and issued more stock at a higher price than the enterprise was worth.  Denise wanted to jump on it ... i cautioned to wait till the market setteled on a reasonable price.  I notice that today the stock went up a bit from yesterday ... even with all the negative attention (see item above) ... so perhaps the stock is work about $31 ... no it wasn't worth $38.  Thing is Zuckenburger got the $38 ...

Mark de LA says
seth 2012-05-23 11:52:08 16028
I'm not so very sure that mobile is going to cut into the facebook advertising.   I haven't seen a lot of it there, but then there are so many different mobile platforms, it is a very wide spectrum of appearances indeed.   I do like facebook advertising.   The reason being that it is far more targeted ... or at least can become more and more targeted.  That and it allows you to interact with an ad.  For example i noticed that you liked some ad ... forget what it was .... something about networking i think ... but i knew you cliked on it Mark, because facebook told me ... that made that ad more important to me and it escalated it in my attention.  The other thing i like about facebook ads is that you can hide specific ads you dont like ... and then you get to give feedback about that ad ... for example i didn't like some right wing ad because it had Sarah Palin's face on it ... i clicked that the ad was "sexually explicit".

We probably will be advertising speaktomecatalog.com on Facebook real soon. 
That was not my analysis but someone in the IPO business. The problem is that their business plan involves their only source of income so far which is advertizement. During the last moments before IPO some identified that flaw about their predictions.  If they could polish their social crystal ball well enough to forecast their profit over the next 5 years AND publish it well enough to the investors so that confidence increases then the stock will go up. Otherwise the hype bubble will burst & they will perhaps need private capital to restructure their adventure.  Good ideas like even CyberMind need to have believability & viability in the market place. Otherwise they will bomb & disappear despite their artistic & aesthetic merits.


Mark de LA says
seth 2012-05-29 09:46:58 16028
  It's down to $29 last time i looked.  Now i'm wondering: where the bottom is and when to buy?  What is a reasonable  value for this stock? ...

after reading this ... i might put in a buy order for $9 ... from that floor it might actually go up


I'll buy $25 worth when it becomes a penny stock - just for grins.


Mark de LA says
... & a cartoon chronicles the convergence of story of a spelling bee & facebook:


Mark de LA says
My dirty crystal ball says wait until the European Union crashes before making more predictions.


Seth says
seth 2012-05-29 10:25:02 16028
M 2012-05-29 10:03:34 16028
seth 2012-05-29 09:46:58 16028
  It's down to $29 last time i looked.  Now i'm wondering: where the bottom is and when to buy?  What is a reasonable  value for this stock? ...

after reading this ... i might put in a buy order for $9 ... from that floor it might actually go up


I'll buy $25 worth when it becomes a penny stock - just for grins.

if it becomes a penny stock, you would be wasting your $25.  

The bet is whether Facebook will become bigger and more effective than Google.   Me, i'm thinking it will not and will continue to be, and grow, on par with Google ... perhaps add Apple in there, but i'm pretty much discounting Microsoft.  For me this is figuring out where Facebook will bottom out of the hype and start growing ... $9 ... maybe  $5 ... but $.09 ... no, that would be a bet that Facebook would implode like MySpace did ... or that something totally new would hit the internet.   Hmmm ... maybe that would not be a bad bet after all ...

Today we see a prediction of the bottom here.

Me i would wait for when the Facebook bottom syncs with a overall market crash ... i'm thinking somewhere between $10 and $20.  Might be a good buy there ... hold till the next boom and sell about $40 ... sweet, eh?



Mark de LA says
More speculation: http://www.cnbc.com/id/47674474 
source: ... When you look over these three generations, no matter how successful you are in one generation, you don't seem to be able to translate that into success in the second generation, no matter how much money you have in the bank, no matter how many smart PhDs you have working for you," Jackson said. "Look at how Google [GOOG 578.59 7.61 (+1.33%) ] has struggled moving into social, and I think Facebook is going to have the same kind of challenges moving into mobile."

Last month Facebook acknowledged its mobile challenge in a regulatory filing. The company stated that the growing number of mobile users using Facebook is hard to monetize and "may negatively affect our revenue and financial results."


...

Mark de LA says
FYI .... great socializer not so good with business plans:
http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-zuckerberg-lost-20120803,0,1952427.story
source: ...

At market close Thursday, Zuckerberg was worth $10.2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

That knocked him out of the top 10 for richest technology billionaires, according to Bloomberg, putting him $400 million behind James Goodnight, the co-founder of software maker SAS Institute Inc.

Facebook’s stock picked up Friday morning. At the time of this writing, shares had increased 4.8% to about $21.

... All in all I'm not crying any tears yet.

Seth says
source: M above re: Mark Zuckerberg has lost $9 billion since Facebooks IPO
FYI .... great socializer not so good with business plans:
... well i don't think you can reliably make a business plan about stuff like this.  

This was predicted (see mine above of 2012-05-31 10:45:31).   So the IPO is just about at it's bottom here and almost ripe to buy.  Of course one needs to be able to predict whether Facebook is going to be just another fad like MySpace or rather a fixture in our Internet world like Google.  But i'm thinking now put in a buy order at $19 ... hope it will drop to there. 

I do need to report that i was confused when i reported above: "Thing is Zuckenburger got the $38" ... no that is not true, that would only have been true if Zuckerberger had sold all of his shares right away ... which he obviously could (should) not have done.

Mark de LA says
If you go public you have to have a prospectus &/or a business plan.  Look up SEC rules. The reason shares got devalued was that Zuckerberg's wasn't credible. They went public rather hurriedly without it being analyzed thoroughly.  Popularity of the product which is free does not mean viability of income (through advertizing?).  That is almost the essence of a con game.  If you can't predict reasonably what your future income is likely to be why would any person be stupid enough to invest?
Even Common Logic had a business plan.  The problem there was that we also needed a small track record of sales to back it up and a polished product on something besides the Apple-II.

Why don't you get the prospectus &/or invest $20 for a share to get it & you will understand better.

Mark de LA says
See also Hen Fever  [con hen fever: item 15700]

Seth says
M 2012-08-05 10:04:34 16028
If you go public you have to have a prospectus &/or a business plan.  Look up SEC rules. The reason shares got devalued was that Zuckerberg's wasn't credible. They went public rather hurriedly without it being analyzed thoroughly.  Popularity of the product which is free does not mean viability of income (through advertizing?).  That is almost the essence of a con game.  If you can't predict reasonably what your future income is likely to be why would any person be stupid enough to invest?
Even Common Logic had a business plan.  The problem there was that we also needed a small track record of sales to back it up and a polished product on something besides the Apple-II.

Why don't you get the prospectus &/or invest $20 for a share to get it & you will understand better.
Well if i buy Facebook ... perchance for under $20  ... it will not be because i had studies their prospectus.  You would need to be a expert in that field to separate the hype from reality.  I also do not think a prospectus is anything like a business plan. 

One thing i can, however, report is that we were not able to successfully utilize Facebook advertising for our business.  We spent about $50 and that yielded no sales whatsoever.  Compare that to our own email newsletters which yield many orders every time we send them out ... and they cost us nothing.  But perhaps that is just because we haven't discovered a good strategy for social media promotion of our particular business. 

Mark de LA says
seth 2012-08-05 12:07:18 16028
M 2012-08-05 10:04:34 16028
If you go public you have to have a prospectus &/or a business plan.  Look up SEC rules. The reason shares got devalued was that Zuckerberg's wasn't credible. They went public rather hurriedly without it being analyzed thoroughly.  Popularity of the product which is free does not mean viability of income (through advertizing?).  That is almost the essence of a con game.  If you can't predict reasonably what your future income is likely to be why would any person be stupid enough to invest?
Even Common Logic had a business plan.  The problem there was that we also needed a small track record of sales to back it up and a polished product on something besides the Apple-II.

Why don't you get the prospectus &/or invest $20 for a share to get it & you will understand better.
Well if i buy Facebook ... perchance for under $20  ... it will not be because i had studies their prospectus.  You would need to be a expert in that field to separate the hype from reality.  I also do not think a prospectus is anything like a business plan. 

One thing i can, however, report is that we were not able to successfully utilize Facebook advertising for our business.  We spent about $50 and that yielded no sales whatsoever.  Compare that to our own email newsletters which yield many orders every time we send them out ... and they cost us nothing.  But perhaps that is just because we haven't discovered a good strategy for social media promotion of our particular business. 
You can actually google around for the prospectus: (May) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303610504577420330688934066.html ... there are others including the IPO.  Then too there's this: google facebook business plan.


Mark de LA says
New low today below $20.


Mark de LA says
M 2012-08-16 09:25:50 16028
New low today below $20.

Newerlow Monday $18.75 - could bounce up when the price is right.

Seth says
M 2012-08-20 08:28:17 16028
M 2012-08-16 09:25:50 16028
New low today below $20.

Newerlow Monday $18.75 - could bounce up when the price is right.



so was that the bottom?

Mark de LA says
seth 2012-08-20 08:36:14 16028
M 2012-08-20 08:28:17 16028
M 2012-08-16 09:25:50 16028
New low today below $20.

Newerlow Monday $18.75 - could bounce up when the price is right.



so was that the bottom?
For today perhaps.  Here is a better picture from Bloomberg.
It is a gambling mentality that plays with this one. Until we know what the future plans for revenue are the sheeple who play in the stock market cross their fingers to buy & sell imho.


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