We are going to run out of oil in this century.

About: Hubbert peak theory - Wikipedia,

The Wikipedia article is quite complete and contains a critical analysis at the end.  There is some recent commentary in AlterNet's article: Peak Oil = Urban Ruin and plenty other articles to be found by google oil peak

My spin is as follows:  We need to kill two birds with one stone.  Both Global Warming and the comming oil shortage can be solved by accepting that we need to re-tool our economy the get off of our oil addition.  It is time for the chic to stop  sucking on the yolk  ... it is time for us to break through the shell.  By taking this re-tooling seriously and with strong leadership from our next president we don't need to be looking forward to a downturn in our economy .... NO ... quite the opposite.  Taken seriously the re-tooling will mean millions of new jobs. 


... accepted dialogue on this node will consist only of pertinant science,  and reasoned commentary against or in support of the proposition in the title or my spin on the subject ... leftrightism will be deleted.

Tags

  1. oil
  2. peak oil
  3. global warming
  4. proposition node
  5. oil sands
  6. fort mc murray
  7. oil shale
  8. gas prices
  9. methane hydrate

Comments


Mark de LA says
See this item for a solution. Maybe advances in recovery from oil shale can be made environmentally friendly yet. Don't panic yet - I don't think you will be around when it's gone. 


Seth says
Actually oil from shale may extend our oil supply longer.  One question that i have in that regard is that the price of oil has been above the $40/barrel for some time (the projected price where it becomes economical), yet i do not see a rush of activity to implement oil from shale.  Now that may be that i simply do not run in the circles where this activity is happening and that such activity is not likely to find itself on the web.  I don't know.  Is all of this oil shale a reality? ... or is is a pipe dream.  Perhaps some in-deapth reasearch will claify that issue. 

Note that the "" in this comment does is not directed against oil from shale.  Rather it represents the fact that this comment contains material that may detract from the proposition in the title of this item.  As this is an official proposition node, please observer the normative formalism that we are experimenting with. 


Seth says


Mark de LA says
So are you just using the  for "is supported by" and "is disputed with" links?  They don't appear to be links. They are just merely sight tags & have no depth to them.


Seth says
M 2006-06-26 07:12:29 3761
M 2006-06-26 06:58:52 3761
What is the Sierra Club's numbers & statistics for it's unsupported statement?
None at their website - just assertions.

I don't see anyone disputing these figures (except perhaps you) ...
source: Washington Post

The miners have created a marvel of human industry that takes a spongy muck once considered worthless and converts it into oil for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. But the price of that alchemy is high: Each barrel of oil requires two to five barrels of water, carves up four tons of earth, uses enough natural gas to heat a home for one to five days, and adds to the greenhouse gases slowly cooking the planet, according to the industry's own calculations.

BTW ... all of this subsequent discussion re the enviromental effects of mining oil sands is off topic here ... and on a proposition node the thumbs should be used only in direct support or against the proposition in the title. 

Mark de LA says
uri http://armor.typepad.com/bastardsword/2004/04/saudis_triple_o.html - Saudia Arabia says Oil reserves have tripled. Can we believe the doom-and-gloom predictions in the title of the item ? 


Seth says
M 2006-06-26 06:59:50 3761
are already have emotional baggage - not good for the "is supported by" & "is disputed with" notions.


You might try cooperating with the in this regard in the spirit of 3796.  I think if we use this dicipline it will actually help focus the dialogue ... it is a mechinism for staying on topic and making your reactions less subjective (don't think of as your thumbs being waved expressing your own subjective reaction to what you are responding against) ... rather think of the thumbs are arguing for or against a specific proposition.  If your message does not add or subtract facts or reasoning to the topic at hand, then it does not belong under that topic.

If we cannot do even that, then we cannot do something with even finer resolution, such as labeling arrows from that node, as you had initially proposed.  If we can acutally do this then we can imporve it and come up with other icoology and became more and more specific.  This is just a large scale experiment to see if we can even go in this direction together.  So far the experiment has failed.  But i am still trying and working on it to see if helps.  Do what thou wilt.

Seth says
M 2006-06-26 07:51:11 3761
So your mention in the original post on oil sand of the Sierra Club's comments is also OFF TOPIC !
Yes it was off topic.  Yet note how i said it ... "That this is bad news for the environment ... is grist for another item" ... and note that i did not use any thumbs with it.  But you are right, were we following the dicipline stickly, it was out of line. 

Seth says

EnCana Vice President Gerry Protti says commitment to reduce GHG emissions can be maintained even as oil production increases.

Sounds like good news

Seth says
Predicting Peak Oil (and global warming events) might end up being more fun than betting on the Derby ...
source: Expert: "Peak oil" will force changes

The U.S. Energy Information Administration continues to predict that oil production will peak around 2037. "But almost nobody takes that seriously anymore," Pahl says.

Geophysicist and author Ken Defeyes, meanwhile, believes that we already hit the peak oil moment in December 2005 and that we're on the down slide.

"Those are the two extremes," Pahl says. "But the growing consensus is that it's probably going to happen in the next five years."


Seth says
source:  Guardian
World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.
... I'm thinking about making another prediction ... now i will never buy gas at under $3.00 per gallon. But i need to study the fundamentals first.

Mark de LA says
seth 2007-10-22 10:09:05 3761
source:  Guardian
World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.
... I'm thinking about making another prediction ... now i will never buy gas at under $3.00 per gallon. But i need to study the fundamentals first.
Maybe Seth will get his wish & not have to pour concrete in all those oil wells!


Seth says
A couple others are reporting peak oil already happened.  Here is a detailed study ....
source: Report to the Energy Watch Group

The major result from this analysis is that world oil production has peaked in 2006. Production will start to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame. The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life.

Climate change will also force humankind to change energy consumption patterns by reducing significantly the burning of fossil fuels. Global warming is a very serious problem. However, the focus of this paper is on the aspects of resource depletion as these are much less transparent to the public.

The now beginning transition period probably has its own rules which are valid only during this phase. Things might happen which we never experienced before and which we may never experience again once this transition period has ended. Our way of dealing with energy issues probably will have to change fundamentally.

The International Energy Agency, anyway until recently, denies that such a fundamental change of our energy supply is likely to happen in the near or medium term future. The message by the IEA, namely that business as usual will also be possible in future, sends a false signal to politicians, industry and consumers

Mark de LA says
seth 2007-10-24 10:07:03 3761
M 2007-10-24 09:46:31 3761
I wonder if the pain of living in scarcity & panic will ever produce brilliant innovation and invention.
There is no panic in this item.  Only the awareness that one resource is winding down and it is time to call on innovation to develope alternatives. 
But a lot of your colleagues are hyping panic & disaster.  From a context of abundance comes freedom & innovation - the Earth is truly abundant. Gaia is an abundant Being that lives well in balance. Being is a context for all truly good action, IMHO.


Seth says
M 2007-10-24 09:46:31 3761
I wonder if the pain of living in scarcity & panic will ever produce brilliant innovation and invention.
There is no panic in this item.  Only the awareness that one resource is winding down and it is time to call on innovation to develope alternatives. 

Seth says
I too, like seeing the Earth as Gaia, a living being providing man with an abundance.  But imagining that she has an infinite supply of all resources, is sheer stupidity.  There is no way that man is in balance with nature ... he is still an explosion.   Finding that balance, which you seem to have imagined is already present, is the challenge of the 21th century and beyond. It is clear to me that the consequences of imbalance are starting to bite and will provide the motivation to innovate and retool our industry for renewable processes.  But ignoring the bite of consequences in a kind of old new-age hippy thought that is counter productive.

Mark de LA says
Scarcity & abundance are more mental attitudes than tangible metrics. Scarcity is a mental attitude which restricts the thought process to a smaller world which is unfriendly & dangerous. Perhaps a Brave New World where only a certain number of people are allowed to be alive!  China already restricts children to one per couple.  In some cases abortion results if the unborn child is not male.  Such attitudes give forth wars & stealing; fear of neighbors & hording; fences, jealousy & covetness.  Mother Earth is abundant in resources for energy, some not yet discovered. To focus on the lack side of the equation rather than the as yet undiscovered only serves those masters who would have us live under the yoke of government controls & tyranny. An attitude adjustment will not only free our minds to see other resources but also, possibly avoid a nuclear winter (which could be another solution to global warming) but which might be undesirable.


Mark de LA says
seth 2007-10-26 08:57:03 3761
This careful analysis of actual oil production leading to the conclusion that it will never be higher than it was in 2006 and that it will start declining now each year, even though demand will increase, is not just an attitude ... it is an extensional result.  The message in this node is not a recommendation of an "attitude of scarcity" ... no, it is a call to retool our industry before the consequences of the inevitable start to bite.    Why aren't we building more non fossil fuel power plants right now?
So while you are focusing on a lack of oil in the future what have you done to find an alternative?  Nothing!

Seth says
This careful analysis of actual oil production leading to the conclusion that it will never be higher than it was in 2006 and that it will start declining now each year, even though demand will increase, is not just an attitude ... it is an extensional result.  The message in this node is not a recommendation of an "attitude of scarcity" ... no, it is a call to retool our industry before the consequences of the inevitable start to bite.    Why aren't we building more non fossil fuel power plants right now?

Seth says
source: M above
So while you are focusing on a lack of oil in the future what have you done to find an alternative?  Nothing!
One thing i've done is to replace my gas guzzler with a more efficient vehichle.  I do keep my eye out for other tangeable changes in my behavior that may make a small difference.  What have you done?

Mark de LA says
seth 2007-10-26 10:09:00 3761
source: M above
So while you are focusing on a lack of oil in the future what have you done to find an alternative?  Nothing!
One thing i've done is to replace my gas guzzler with a more efficient vehichle.  I do keep my eye out for other tangeable changes in my behavior that may make a small difference.  What have you done?
Conservation, regulation & legislation will only pospone the inevitable if running out of oil is in that future.  My resource usage is already low (I have had a low mileage vehicle for many years). In my spare time I plumb the depths of the problem by searching the Internet & elsewhere for clues to suitable technology which I can experiment with.  I'm looking for something new, not just reworking the tired old solutions like solar panels, windmills & biodiesel.  I tend to think the solution is going to turn out to be something simple yet elegant.


Seth says
Here is a review of a old 2005 artiles by ExxonMobile acknowledging peak oil.  What is interesting is that they give the straight skivvey on oil shale ... don't look to that for any relief.

Yesterday i paid $3.01/gallon for a tank of gas ... I bet $20 with Jason that i will never pay less than $3.00/gallon for gas  ... ever.  Bet to be setteled in 2009.  I had already won a bet with Denise on the $2.00 price ... which is now ancient history.  Today oil hit $95/barrel

Production of oil, world wide, will never be greater than it is today even though demand wants to increase ... that demand must needs be provided by alternative energy. In a way this is good news ... it looks like God put in trip point to keep us from killing ourselves.  We have run out of the easy yolk that our industry has been sipping on for the past century ... now it is time to  use our reason and innovation to figure out how to prosper.  We, and our children, and grand children will find out just how mature our species is.

Seth says

Seth says
As you may have gathered i believe that peak oil is upon us.  This is based in general on the reporting by The Oil Drum and in particular by this ExxonMobile article and the fact that the price has been going up dramatically.  But very recently the price has significantly retreated from the $99/barrel high and the IEA in November reported a not triveal rise in production.  One of course wonders whether the the retreat in price is casually related to the IEA report.  I don't know.  Today we see a rather long and almost comical stastical analysis of the new data point by The oil Drum ... read it in good cheer. 

Mark de LA says
Yep the environmentalist wackoes cut off their own dicks by preventing drilling in places like Alaska Wildlife Refuge & in the gulf (China can drill though). There is oil in Colorado and Utah also enough for many years not touched for the same reason. Not building refineries also contributes to the price of oil & gas.



Mark de LA says
Methane hydrate is in abundance (mentioned elsewhere) . Here is the wikipedia article on the subject.

Mark de LA says
seth 2007-10-23 11:47:11 3761
A couple others are reporting peak oil already happened.  Here is a detailed study ....
source: Report to the Energy Watch Group

The major result from this analysis is that world oil production has peaked in 2006. Production will start to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame. The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life.

Climate change will also force humankind to change energy consumption patterns by reducing significantly the burning of fossil fuels. Global warming is a very serious problem. However, the focus of this paper is on the aspects of resource depletion as these are much less transparent to the public.

The now beginning transition period probably has its own rules which are valid only during this phase. Things might happen which we never experienced before and which we may never experience again once this transition period has ended. Our way of dealing with energy issues probably will have to change fundamentally.

The International Energy Agency, anyway until recently, denies that such a fundamental change of our energy supply is likely to happen in the near or medium term future. The message by the IEA, namely that business as usual will also be possible in future, sends a false signal to politicians, industry and consumers � not to forget the media.
...


Apparently China thinks oil is very important to their economy, they even jail people who expose the following kinds of information (as a trade secret):
Bloomberg: ... China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, has been dipping into $2.4 trillion of foreign currency reserves to buy stakes in oil and natural-gas fields and has spent at least $21 billion on overseas resources in the past year. China Petrochemical Corp. bought a stake in a Canadian oil sands project for $4.65 billion in April.

Seth says
source: MR above
"Apparently China thinks oil is very important to their economy" ... also know why China doesn't like sanctions on Iran.
Yep, China's agenda is to feed it's economy, in the short term, with oil.  There are lots of oil companies that want the world to be fighting over this dwindling resource.  The better direction, of course, is for the world to turn its back on the fight and go balls to the wall developing alternatives.  We can expect the right wing, short sighted business interests to lobby your fears for the fight, and the patsys to go for it, hook line and sinker. 


Mark de LA says
seth 2010-07-05 07:51:27 3761
source: MR above
"Apparently China thinks oil is very important to their economy" ... also know why China doesn't like sanctions on Iran.
Yep, China's agenda is to feed it's economy, in the short term, with oil.  There are lots of oil companies that want the world to be fighting over this dwindling resource.  The better direction, of course, is for the world to turn its back on the fight and go balls to the wall developing alternatives.  We can expect the right wing, short sighted business interests to lobby your fears for the fight, and the patsys to go for it, hook line and sinker. 

Where are all those green alternatives & those green jobs that your green [sic] president promised during his campaign?  Left-wing insanity notwithstanding, bankrupting the economy will only mean that the big ideas will not be showing up in this country anytime soon!


Mark de LA says
I guess there is also methane hydrate in Alaska as well as the Gulf of Mexico. I would think that methane would be cleaner burning with less sulfur to refine out of it.


See Also

  1. Thought Global Cooling by 2020 ? with 286 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  2. Thought So which is it? with 123 viewings related by tag "globalwarming".
  3. Thought Fo Hammer report!!!! Catagory 5! with 83 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  4. Thought Why we are advancing Global Warming as a global consciousness with 63 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  5. Thought Fake Science with 47 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  6. Thought Global Groundhog Day! with 21 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  7. Thought Man Prepares for... with 17 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  8. Thought Oreskes vs Peiser with 16 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  9. Thought Chicken Little with 11 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  10. Thought 9 years left & counting .... with 8 viewings related by tag "globalwarming".
  11. Thought Pontiac Vibe with 6 viewings related by tag "gas prices".
  12. Thought about: RealClimate with 6 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  13. Thought Mars seems to be affected by Global Warming with 6 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  14. Thought Another Global Warming Countdown Clock with 6 viewings related by tag "globalwarming".
  15. Thought Global Bullshit with 6 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  16. Thought about: How to Talk to a Sceptic about Global Warming with 6 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  17. Thought Your government wasting time ... with 5 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  18. Thought Doomsday with 5 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  19. Thought A complete list of things caused by global warming with 4 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  20. Thought Try an experiment - room2 with 4 viewings related by tag "globalwarming".
  21. Thought Boondoggles for the Global Hand-job of Guilt with 3 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  22. Thought A Libertarian's view of An Inconvenient Truth with 3 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  23. Thought The Big Stories and views that don't make major network news ... with 3 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  24. Thought Belief vs Bullshit & #BullGas with 3 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  25. Thought Global Surprise? with 3 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  26. Thought A Study of Global Warming: Jump List of References with 3 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  27. Thought Global Heretics with 3 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  28. Thought about: Brainwashing 1A - Gore et. al. - comment 15617 with 2 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  29. Thought NOAA - Global Warming & Many Other Subjects with 2 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  30. Thought Shame on Obama or not? with 2 viewings related by tag "proposition node".
  31. Thought ICECAP with 1 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  32. Thought Michael Crichton - State of Fear with 1 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  33. Thought about: Coolest December-February Since 2001 for U.S., Globe with 1 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  34. Thought The Dead Bodies of Global Warming Begin to Stink! with 1 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  35. Thought Global Irony with 1 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  36. Thought about: Senate Speech: A Challenge To Journalists Who Cover Global Warming, James Inhofe (R-Okla) with 1 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  37. Thought News Flash --- New Investment Opportunities Galore with 0 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  38. Thought WFB on Naturalism - The Second Inquisition ! with 0 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  39. Thought Denise and i went to the movies ... with 0 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  40. Thought ENCYCLICAL LETTER OF THE HOLY FATHER FRANCIS ON CARE FOR OUR COMMON HOME with 0 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  41. Thought We are in Libya for OIL (NOT for US, but for Europe) with 0 viewings related by tag "oil".
  42. Thought Environ-mentalism - Prius Envy with 0 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  43. Thought about: Dangerous human-made interference with climate: NASA Institute for Space Studies publication with 0 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  44. Thought Proposition: Rising CO2 in Earth's athmosphere is causing global warming. with 0 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  45. Thought about: Global Warming's Real Inconvenient Truth with 0 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  46. Thought Environmentals - Go Thou & do Likewise - Please! with 0 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  47. Thought about: Enzymes feasting on C02 will combat global warming with 0 viewings related by tag "global warming".
  48. Thought about: worldnetdaily: top gas gouger? the government! with 0 viewings related by tag "gas prices".
  49. Thought Oil Money in Politics with 0 viewings related by tag "oil".
  50. Thought Science vs Mysticism with 0 viewings related by tag "global warming".