It's apparently front page news for CNN

About: cnn.com - thursday 'a critical day' for stopping arizona wildfire - jun 22, 2006


It is a little misleading because the volcano is off of Sicily.

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  1. panic

Comments


Mark de LA says
source: ... Their 155-page report said average global surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere rose about 1 degree during the 20th century.
... so maybe we have a few centuries before we all get to live like those in Phoenix, Arizona.


Seth says
M 2006-06-22 14:40:36 3770
Again the thermometer was invented ~ 1600's - so the rest is speculation based on what ? There wasn't anyone around 2000 years ago to set out an array of accurate thermometers that could tell the shift in a degree or two of the temperature in any single spot on the surface of the Earth.

Measurements are based upon correlations in physical properties.  For example changes in temperature are highly correlated to the length of a column of mercury.  But temperature correlates to many other observed properties as well ... such as findings in sediments and ice  cores (see Techniques of paleoclimatology).  The serious studies of this always acknowledge the increased error as we go back in time and our correlations become less and less direct (note the shaded region in this graph from the IPCC) .  If any date is pertinent here it is 1850, the date after which reliable surface temperature records exist. Yet you keep bringing up the 1600 date as if it meant something.  Every time you do, i shudder at what a strange comprehension of the workings of science you must have to seriously consider it has any bearing on our inquiry.


Mark de LA says
Again the thermometer was invented ~ 1600's - so the rest is speculation based on what ? There wasn't anyone around 2000 years ago to set out an array of accurate thermometers that could tell the shift in a degree or two of the temperature in any single spot on the surface of the Earth.

Mark de LA says
The accepted measure of the extensive property called temperature is the thermometer which can be measured to within parts of a degree. Organic things like tree rings & ice cores don't have that same kind of precision. Besides, while there may be correlation, there is not the same precision as a thermometer. This study had many caveats which were not published. We are essentially haggling over one degree. IMHO that is certainly within the margin of error for this so-called science.

Mark de LA says
The NAS study has a focus on the Northern Hemisphere - if it's Global Warming they are interested in shouldn't they take measurements in the Sourhern Hemisphere as well? What about South America, South Africa, Australia & New Zealand & the ice & stuff at the South Pole ?

Mark de LA says
I am slugging my way through the full 157 page PDF which is the preliminary report of the NAS.  Meanwhile this editorial from Wes Pruden of the Washington Times is much more fun to read. It is interesting that so far the study authors have pointed out some of the same uncertainties as I have in the preceeding bulleted comment above.


Mark de LA says
M 2006-06-23 06:51:30 3770
BTW, what is the difference if any between the terms Global Warming  & Surface Temperature Reconstruction for the last 2000 years?



Mark de LA says
M 2006-06-23 06:21:01 3770
In  3775 the NAS study I would like to know the following:
  • Where were the measurements taken? There are no ice cores in Miami to be taken 2000 years ago.
  • What is the graph of volcanoes erupting for the last 2000 years.
  • What is the accuracy rate for ice cores & tree rings & other indirect measurements?
  • Tree growth depends on H2O, soil nutrients, and other variables as well as temperature - so does snow & ice - show these for various places on the Earth.
  • Where are the measurements taken today versus 2000 years ago?
  • Obviously the alarm is over 1 degree of temperature - what is the proof that this is not within statistical error.
  • Which countries are producing the rise, if any (it's not all the good old USA!) - China, Russia, India - don't just assume your theory that it's because of CO2 or Methane (farting cows)?
  • What are the arguments of those that contradict the findings?
  • There were  Ice Ages before - explain how they recovered and came into being if the phenomena are not cyclic
  • & then the final most important question - SO WHAT?
It sounds like 1 degree over 2000 years gives us plenty of time to discover alternative methods of propulsion, electricity generation, ecological protections etc.  What I hear from the left is carbon footprints for individuals & eventual taxing of same for people & industries - (& if Kyoto were adopted letting China & India off the hook). 



Mark de LA says
Also check out the effect of the Earth's magnetic field on climate. The Wikipedia link fails on the subject so you know how to find it. Also google earth magnetic field

Mark de LA says
Note on page 13 the distribution of the "proxy measurements" is shown for 1000AD & 1500AD - oops the NAS doesn't use the politically correct EV instead of AD.  The thing that stands out in these maps is that no measurements are made in the ocean. The ocean is ~ 3/4 of the Earth's surface.  Are the current measurements also flawed in that way?  So if we leave out most of the Southern Hemisphere & all the oceans from our measurements do we have Global Warming?


Mark de LA says
From page 11 of the NAS Study - on the use of other than thermometer readings & their reliability:
source: ... Although calibration against instrumental data is a necessary step to determine how well
proxies reflect climate, proxy records are not perfect thermometers, that is, the true relationship
between the proxy and the local surface temperature is not known exactly. Furthermore, all
proxies are influenced by variables other than temperature, and it can be difficult to account for
these confounding factors. The use of linear regression in the calibration step is also a concern
because reconstructions derived from linear regression models based on the method of least
squares exhibit less variability than the instrumental records they are calibrated against. Additional variance can be lost if the individual proxy records within the reconstruction are not
spliced together properly. Finally, in applying these methods it is assumed that the correlation
between the proxy data and the instrumental record will hold up over the entire period of the
reconstruction, but this assumption is difficult to test.
... I would still like to discover the plus/minus error estimate of this methodology somewhere in the study.



Mark de LA says
M 2006-06-23 09:06:31 3770
Also check out the effect of the Earth's magnetic field on climate. The Wikipedia link fails on the subject so you know how to find it. Also google earth magnetic field
    • elaborating a little further.... If Gaia were a living human being she would have more than her temperature measured  to determine her health. For humans there is, besides temperature,
    • blood pressure
    • pulse rate & heart scan
    • breathing
    • weight & height
    • physical appearance etc.
What are the analogues to these for Gaia?

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