One road to peace ... saying things that need to be said.


Is there a way to peace ... can we get there from here? 

There can be no doubt Israel's reprisals for the kidnappings has been out of proportion.  But then, as some say, Israel is following a plan, 5 years in the making, to wipe out Hizbollah.  After all having thousands of missels pointing at their northern cities is not something that they can be expected to tolerate.  The current bommings will not solve the long range problems with the Hizbollah.  No, they will need to invade Lebenon to eliminate the missels and terrorst camps (note my prediction).  Their air stikes sound more like softening up the terrain and cutting off the escapes routs than any kind of surgical reprisal for the kidnapping of a handful of soldiers. 

On the other side Hizbollah can not have anticipitated this level of response.  They are faced now with almost certain aniliation.  Sure they can disperse through the area and hide later to arise and stike terror.  But their political streangth in Lebenon must shurly be at an end and what good they have achieved will be gone with it. 

source: This report from the Washington Post supports my analysis.
Israel, with U.S. support, intends to resist calls for a cease-fire and continue a longer-term strategy of punishing Hezbollah, which is likely to include several weeks of precision bombing in Lebanon, according to senior Israeli and U.S. officials.  For Israel, the goal is to eliminate Hezbollah as a security threat -- or altogether, the sources said.
Of course it makes little difference whether the Lebenonese army or even the UN is empowered to do the actual work or whether Israel marches into the region.  But there must be boots on the ground.  You don't find 25,000 rockets hidden in a desert with rockets comming from the sky.  Also a ground action could be far less destructive of innocent civilians. 

What is the path to peace?

Well one thing that Israel needs to learn is that hitting terrorist hard will not eliminate them.  You cannot just wipe these people out.  The more you try, the more hatred you cause and the more fuel you heap on the fire.  Certainly there are political forces in Israel who understand this principal.  Those forces need to stand up and be counted. 

On the other side the positive contributions that Hizbollah has made for their people should be recognized and encouraged.  There should a place for those positive forces in the next government of Lebenon.   A coilition between the positive forces of Hizbollah and those in Israel who comprehend that terror on terror bebets more terror should be sufficient to ensure that Hizbollah will not rearm.  That is, perhaps and regreatably, after they have been disarmend by Isralia army's comming incursion into Lebenon.

All that needs to happen is for Iran and Syria to stay out of it.  Is that too much to hope for?

Tags

  1. hezbollah
  2. lebanon
  3. israel
  4. war
  5. peace
  6. armageddon
  7. rapture
  8. scripts
  9. prediction vindicated

Comments


Mark de LA says
Iran is using Hezbollah & Hamas in a proxy war against the US. There is no legitimate purpose for a foreign army such as Hezbollah to be in Lebanon supported by Syria & Iran. Iran is the one that is smiling today. Iran managed to sidetrack the G8 from focus on them for their nuclear program. Israel is doing the right thing in protecting itself & preparing for a ground offensive to disarm Hezbollah.
Blaming more terrorists on attempts to rid the region of terrorists, & making the terrorsts mad etc. is like saying that going into South Central LA and arresting the gangs leaders & members will only make them mad & make more gang members.  I guess the only way to rid the world of terrorsists is to kill them all!


Seth says
M 2006-07-15 15:26:04 3940
I guess the only way to rid the world of terrorsists is to kill them all!
Certainly you jest ... but i am not amused.  You cannot kill them all ... any sane man will know that and know it well. 
There is no legitimate purpose for a foreign army such as Hezbollah to be in Lebanon supported by Syria & Iran.
That is a distortion.  Actually Hezbollah won seats in the Lebanon parliment though legitimate democratic elections.  The road to peace might lie in recognizing that political reality.  It might happen by leveraging those legitimate claims on the hearts and minds of Lebanese people.  There is an element of saving face here .. but it goes deeper than that.  Your way just leads to more and more bloodshed and more and more insanity.  Your way will not make you safer.  Nor will it make the Israeli people safer.

And yet another thing that cranks up the war is the Iran connection.  Note that my node is groping for peace ... not a bigger confligration. 


Mark de LA says
I suspect elections in the presence of armed Hezbolla militia & Syrian secret service all over the country. The Syrians executed the former head of the country.  Get rid of the terrorists first & then hold an election & I suspect you will have a different outcome.

Mark de LA says
You sound like you are trying picking a fight. I had a legitimate question. Geographically Israel is exceedingly small. Why do the Arabs fight over such a small piece of land?


Seth says
M 2006-07-15 15:55:01 3940
You have noticed that Israel is such a small country compared to the greater Middle East.  Why do arabs & Iranians consider them such a problem? Furthermore, Israel is not known for having oil. Why are they a threat to anyone who is not attacking them? Answer that & you will have one of the keys.
We are all aware of the history of the region since WWII.  What are you trying to imply with your veiled message ?  If you have something to say, then please say it out loud.  Or better yet, don't.  I've already heard enough hate against hate to last me for the rest of my life.

Mark de LA says
I think a massive Peace Corps like undertaking offered instead of war is a solution to the problem .


Seth says
source: Hezbollah rockets infiltrate Israeli heartland
JERUSALEM - Striking deeper into Israel than any previous attack launched from Lebanon, two barrages of Hezbollah-fired Katyusha rockets rained down on sun-splashed Tiberias, Israel, yesterday, causing few injuries but widespread fear.
Bad news .  I sure hope they don't stretch this thing out.  Go in there already with boots on the ground, find the rockets and nutralize them. 


Mark de LA says
Hmmm. The Americans & the Iraqi police & military have been trying to get rid of the rockets & car bombs in Bagdad for 2-3 years & seem not to be able to stem the tide for very long. 


Seth says
I think i predicted this somewhere ... but in any case it is not unexpected ...

source: Silver Linings and a Cross of Gold
Posted on Tuesday, July 18, 2006. It turns out there's an upside to the current conflict between Israel and Hezbollah

Seth says
This prediction was made in early July (see item above)
source: seth in 3940
The current bommings will not solve the long range problems with the Hizbollah.  No, they will need to invade Lebenon to eliminate the missels and terrorst camps (note my prediction).
Now we see the Israel replacing their general and preparing for a massive invasion ... maybe they should start reading my blog  ...
source: ABC news
Israel's Security Cabinet convened Wednesday to likely approve a broader ground offensive in Lebanon,
...
The ministers met a day after the commander of Israeli forces in Lebanon was sidelined in an unusual mid-war shake-up another sign of the growing dissatisfaction with the military, which has been unable to stop Hezbollah's daily rocket barrages.

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