A terrible question ...




Can Hezbollah sustain their attack indefinitely even under military pressure from Israel ?


Here is a graph, thanks Israellycool ...








This script has the Katyusha rockets as a finite resource. 
source: tehran times

"Hezbollah possessed 13,000 short-range rockets at the start of the conflict, it has fired over 2,000 and we destroyed some 1,500 in warehouses.

"They still have full capability to launch rockets," the senior source said.

... but what about resupply?

source:boston globe
Based on the estimated number of Hezbollah missiles and the rate at which Israel is hitting stockpiles, Morczynski estimated that Hezbollah could continue firing several hundred rockets a day into Israel for another five weeks.
...
According to UN estimates, Hezbollah could fire rockets at a rate of several hundred a day for another month.
... but if that is true (and they cannot resupply?) is it in their best interest to run the missels out so that their vunerablity is seen as weakness ?  Nope ... doesn't have a ring of truth. 

An interesting analysis here ..
source: National Review Editorial, The Current Battle
Hezbollah wants to stay on Israel

Tags

  1. question~answer
  2. war
  3. hezbollah
  4. israel
  5. politics
  6. scripts

Comments


Seth says
Here is an article that gives some of the tactics of the battle "A Disciplined Hezbollah Surprises Israel With Its Training, Tactics and Weapons".

Seth says
Good find, but i moved it here as it is about the scripts of war and not my fatwa  ...
M 2006-08-09 05:25:09 3978
There is more Spengler analysis here: When the devil dislikes the stink of brimstone .

Seth says
M 2006-08-07 05:45:32 4102
M 2006-08-07 05:40:20 4102
Let me say it a little more clearly. The root cause of most wars over history have been over economics considerations. The only other predominant cause has been over religion. 
Fine, so how does that generalization help us? 

Please note that this node is about the terrible question: Can Hezbollah sustain their attack indefinitely even under military pressure from Israel ?

Mark de LA says
terrible question or terrible answer ? Somehow the success of the Israeli invasion into Lebanon is being graded on how many rockets are fired back.  If the Israelis used the Hebzos formula all they would have to do is drop appropriate numbers of bombs on high population density cities & areas and kill as many people as possible - then they would get an A+ by the Hezbos' formula. 


Seth says
I don't think this is an academic question or even a propoganda question.  It is a regional stretigic question.  If the Hezbollah can sustain the barrage, then everything suddenly shifts around ... we have quite a different situation.  Let us hope that the answer is NO, but that optimism is not born out by the facts on the ground so far.  

Mark de LA says
You seem to have no realistic solution besides capitulation. There are two streams in this fight. One is diplomatic played on the world stage. The other is military played in the real world of life & death & horror. So far the UN has been impotent to solve yet any war at all. So I would guess that it might be a while yet before the UN & diplomacy yields anything real & constructive. But, while the diplomacy goes on the Hezbos are getting softened up a bit & I predict that some time in the future they will be ready to yield on some of their ridiculous demands. The same will go for the Israelis. Name me one war that was settled without a winner & a looser. Those that seem to be that way (like the Korean War) were postponed for later generations. THAT is what has been happening in the Middle East for thousands of years. I haven't see much improvement by passing it on to newer generations. The bombs get more destructive & the killing much more like Nintendo games. &, whether we like it or not the terrorists are like weeds & hide among the good people; so they are harder to find. When someone is hell-bent on destroying you there really isn't much to talk about! Then, still there is that 1000 foot high wall with the 1001 foot ladder I would still like to see the US get rid of it's oil addiction & see how fast that defuses the Middle East. That is where I would invest our national treasure.


Seth says
M 2006-08-06 13:18:14 4102
The Hezbos can keep it up until they are mostly all dead or capitulate. There is no sudden shift. It has always been that way with the intractables.
Your opion is based on the assumption that these "intractables" are a finite set of individuals and that they are not replenished form the population.  But there is no evidence that points us in that direction.  In fact many people say quite the opposite.  The more you kill the more there are.  Me thinks that a successful military stratagy must be based on better stastical intelligence than that.

Seth says
M 2006-08-06 13:46:06 4102
Again , Seth seems to still be fighting the mythical beast of a Medusa.  I say without much doubt that when they are all dead they will not reproduce! 
Well when people let go the beautiful simplicity of the 20th century battlefield then may be able to craft a strategy to actually engage the elements that besiege.  Sure there is some level of violence which will stop Hezbollah missiles.  But how far is Israel and the West prepared to carry this deadly game of chicken with Nasrallah and his Shia supporters?  How high must the bodies of innocents be piled before we grok the lay of the land? 


tndal says
No, they cannot.

But let them try. The longer they persist the more of them die, and the more money they waste firing useless crappy bottle rockets that they purchased dearly from Russia and Iran at top-tier prices.

One day the oil producers of the region formed a cartel and raised the price of oil. In response, the remainder of the world cooperated to embroil the Mideast in war and now takes the money back by selling second-rate weapons systems to the Mideast at first-rate prices. Foolishly the Mideast is killing itself off by spending it's oil dollars on weapons which are eventually demolished in battle and which contribute nothing to the future of the region.

When the last barrel of Mideast oil is wrung from the ground, the last Mideasterner can sell it to an outsider for yet another AK-47 or hand grenade, with which he can kill himself, since there will be nothing left and nothing to live for. And the sands will forget.

Seth says
Well, M, i have not once mentioned any concept called "capitualtion", so i don't know where you got that idea ... perhaps you made it up ... i hope you don't see the establishment of a viable Palestenian state separate from Israel as a capitulation, because that kind of thinking is just stupidity.   Beyond that I have offered fatwa as being part of the solution.  I have also acknoweldged that getting rid of our oil addiction is another big big part of the solution and i agree that is where we should invest our national treasure

Beyond that, the solution is to wage peace where there are no loosers.  We, and the rest of the world, should agressively go after all impediments to peace.  This takes a lot of courage.  It cannot be done by pussies. One thing that tndal's comment inspires is to follow the money ... if it leads to factories in Russia, can not the world bring pressure to shut them down?  If it leads to sources in Syria and Iran, can not that be brought into the light?  I don't mean just accusations ... every talking head seems to accuse Syria and Iran of supplying Hezbollah, but where is the audi trail ... can that not be made public?  In my blog, with the exception of fatwa i had not seriously started on the solutions.  Perhaps we need a node that enumerates them. 

Mark de LA says
   The World doesn't seem to be able to bring pressure on anyone.  We're all in bed together whether we like it or not. Russia & Iran are co-nuclear technology dependent. Iran-N.Korea are co-dependent for missile technology. China-Iran are co-dependent for oil. US-Middle East are co-dependent for oil.  Middle-East & the U.S. are co-dependent for arms & other tech. EU-Middle East are co-dependent for trade.   The UN can't get itself together for sanctions on Iran over nuclear weapons because of co-dependency. Also there is a residual cold war between the US & China-Russia. The UN failed in corrupt sanctions against Iraq - that caused the US-Iraq war!  Essentially, everyone is in bed with everyone else - viva la globalization !
   Don't expect to do anything even if you can follow all the money! It would be interesting to make more public the workings & speeches in the UN & show clearly as Dr. Rice said "We'll vote & see who is for peace & who is not".  It would be interesting to have more speeches that mean something instead of the right-wrong game spin.

   Selective spending on the macro scale is one of the answers.


Seth says
M 2006-08-07 06:15:34 4102
I think that Seth will have to get over the fact that conversations diverge
Not going to happen.  Focus!  ... focus! ... focus!  Bandying words all over a broad topic is not productive. 

I have always been interested in military stratagy.  I happen to think that this new asymmetrical battlefield requires a new kind of thinking.  Your "viva la globalization" is certainly part of the lay of the land.  Understanding co-dependancies is essential.  But getting into a generalized study of the history of warefair is a diversion.  Rather we should be studying what new elements of warfair are being deployed in this circumstance.  The topic can be broadened, but it is still about the script of this particular situation.  I had though that the Hezbollah would have wanted a cease fire and they could have had it by just stopping with the missels.  Under that script, they would have emerged politically stronger.  Would that political victory not be their objective?  But that is not happening.  Why?  Do they think that they can sustain the barrage?  You say the original purpose of the node was "insipid", but that is just because you have not engaged your mind in the stratagy of the battle.  

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-08-07 08:22:04 4102
M 2006-08-07 07:52:22 4102
It's a prediction!  I don't need evidence for either a prediction or an opinion.  
Fine, when do you predict they will ready to yield?
War is rarely on an egg-timer. The only thing that changes a belligerent mind is death or losing badly enough that he thinks he can't win (the old paradigm). With those 72 virgins hanging out I suspect death is the only persuader.

Seth says
M 2006-08-06 22:35:33 4102
Hezbos are getting softened up a bit & I predict that some time in the future they will be ready to yield on some of their ridiculous demands. The same will go for the Israelis. Name me one war that was settled without a winner & a looser.
That view does not square with the facts on the ground.
source: Lebanon yields no clear victor Conclusive outcome eludes combatants
"Only in total war - and total war is the exception, not the rule, like World War II - can you fight until the complete exhaustion of the other party," said Brom, now at the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv. "And then you can reshape the other side. But do you really think, in the current international climate, Israel would be allowed to flatten Lebanon, and flatten Syria?"
If you study the situation just a little bit i believe you will come to the conclusion that they will never be "ready to yield" under military pressure.  Where is your evidence?  Where are there even talking heads who agree with you? 

Seth says
M 2006-08-08 16:52:26 4102
Here is another "terrible question" - are you rooting for the Hezbos?  Some of your quotes seems to point out or lean in that direction.
Nope, not at all.  But i do like to understand things from other points of view.  Seeing a battlefield from the point of view of one's own adgenda is a formula for missing important dynamics.  Nor should you interpert my words as me sympathizing only with the Zionists. I do, however,  see no reason why Isralies should not be left alone to live their lives in their country in peace.  Of course that alone would certainly cast me out of any Hezbollah's camp.

Brutus says
I like the way Hezbollah fights in today's armored battlefield. Of course they can sustain an attack, they have plenty of weapons now. Who said they can't buy more?
All this of course does not account for the Hezdollah lack of airpower, Isralies get U.S. jets, bombs away....

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