Is Iran planning a cataclysmic strike for August 22?

source: August 22: Does Iran have something in store? by Bernard Lewis

There is a radical difference between the Islamic Republic of Iran and other governments with nuclear weapons. This difference is expressed in what can only be described as the apocalyptic worldview of Iran's present rulers. This worldview and expectation, vividly expressed in speeches, articles and even schoolbooks, clearly shape the perception and therefore the policies of Ahmadinejad and his disciples.

Even in the past it was clear that terrorists claiming to act in the name of Islam had no compunction in slaughtering large numbers of fellow Muslims. A notable example was the blowing up of the American embassies in East Africa in 1998, killing a few American diplomats and a much larger number of uninvolved local passersby, many of them Muslims. There were numerous other Muslim victims in the various terrorist attacks of the last 15 years.

The phrase "Allah will know his own" is usually used to explain such apparently callous unconcern; it means that while infidel, i.e., non-Muslim, victims will go to a well-deserved punishment in hell, Muslims will be sent straight to heaven. According to this view, the bombers are in fact doing their Muslim victims a favor by giving them a quick pass to heaven and its delights--the rewards without the struggles of martyrdom. School textbooks tell young Iranians to be ready for a final global struggle against an evil enemy, named as the U.S., and to prepare themselves for the privileges of martyrdom.

A direct attack on the U.S., though possible, is less likely in the immediate future. Israel is a nearer and easier target, and Mr. Ahmadinejad has given indication of thinking along these lines. The Western observer would immediately think of two possible deterrents. The first is that an attack that wipes out Israel would almost certainly wipe out the Palestinians too. The second is that such an attack would evoke a devastating reprisal from Israel against Iran, since one may surely assume that the Israelis have made the necessary arrangements for a counterstrike even after a nuclear holocaust in Israel.

[and then in conclusion, emphasis mine]

How then can one confront such an enemy, with such a view of life and death? Some immediate precautions are obviously possible and necessary. In the long term, it would seem that the best, perhaps the only hope is to appeal to those Muslims, Iranians, Arabs and others who do not share these apocalyptic perceptions and aspirations, and feel as much threatened, indeed even more threatened, than we are. There must be many such, probably even a majority in the lands of Islam. Now is the time for them to save their countries, their societies and their religion from the madness of MAD.

His solution is, of course, the same as mine in fatwa.

One worries that this Auguest 22 mention from Ahmadinejad is not related to Nasrallah's warning for Arabs to leave Hifa. You do not intimidate these people with fear. They are fearless, they crave their "72 x 72 virgins" ... "God will know his own" ...etc. Bush's swagger just plays into this script. It is high time to look around and build the third alternative.

You can listen to another talk by Professor Bernard Lewis here.

source: Woodrow Wilson School webcasts

November 7, 2002
Bernard Lewis, the Cleveland E. Dodge Professor of Near Eastern Studies, Emeritus, at PrincetonUniversity
"What Went Wrong: Western Impact and Middle Eastern Response"
Encoded from Tape
RealVideo: 56K 300K
WM Video: 56K 300K

It's well worth a total listen ... lot's of history. Especially pertinant to the current world situation and Mark's Zen & the Art of the Right-Wrong Game is this part:

I say, do whatever we can to get out of this fucking loop !

One way out of the loop is to start removing the assumptions and the context withing which there is no solution. For example ...

source: EU urges talks with Hezbollah to resolve crisis

"Obviously, if you want an end to the fighting and have any lasting political agreement, Hezbollah has to be a party to it," Tuomioja said in a telephone interview from Cairo. "Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese Parliament and government."

Washington and Israel have repeatedly asked the EU to put Hezbollah on its list of terrorist organizations and to stop all funding of Hezbollah by sympathetic charities or other groups.

But Tuomioja, who has the task of presenting a common European foreign policy on the crisis, said the EU's main priority was to try to obtain a permanent and effective cease-fire. That meant involving all the parties.

"Then the next step, the most important step, is to put the Israeli-Palestinian track back on the agenda," he said. "We all recognize that stability will not be possible unless the Palestinian issue is addressed. It is the underlying source of the conflict. At the moment you have a situation in which support for extremists, including terrorism, is growing."

...

Comments

Mark de LA says
BTW, what gets a person out of the loop is consciousness & consciousness of the loop. On the backend of the will to get out of the loop is the desire to experience a higher state of being & the inspiration to do so for some personal or cosmic benefit. This experience doesn't have the juice that righteous incitement & being incited to hatred have, but others have paved the way such as Mahatma Ghandi & Martin Luther King, Jr. . What the world needs NOW is someone who can speak with the authority & power of these men to this modern world of trouble. I don't know of anyone at this time who can do it.

Seth says
Well i don't understand your backend but i certainly agree with ...

source: M above
This experience doesn't have the juice that righteous incitement & being incited to hatred have, but others have paved the way such as Mahatma Ghandi & Martin Luther King, Jr. . What the world needs NOW is someone who can speak with the authority & power of these men to this modern world of trouble.

... well said

Seth says
What i don't get, in this regard, is why people continue to support rhetoric like this that goes in the exact oppositie direction ... in fact this is just about as close to "I'm right and your wrong, go to hell" as you can get ...

source: Bush Doctrine in a Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the American People
Our response involves far more than instant retaliation and isolated strikes. Americans should not expect one battle, but a lengthy campaign, unlike any other we have ever seen. It may include dramatic strikes, visible on TV, and covert operations, secret even in success. We will starve terrorists of funding, turn them one against another, drive them from place to place, until there is no refuge or no rest. And we will pursue nations that provide aid or safe haven to terrorism. Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists. (Applause.) From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime.

And for those who have their "your soft on terriorism" lob ready, let me make a preemtive strike. The war on terrorism was dealt a decisive blow when we wiped out the terrorist camps in Afganastan. It is being won every day that our secruity measures and intelligence gathering prevents terrorists plots. Bush's doctrine of adventurism plays directly into the Ahmadinejad / Nasrallah script of mutial aniliation. If you want to further fight terrorism, then agressively and with no mamby pamby half measures estanblish a Palestenian state to live in peace beside Israel. Take the thunder from the Hezbolla. Remove the ring of truth from his words in Muslims ears.

Seth says

M 2006-08-10 10:11:19 4123

Presumably you (Seth) understand the first sentence. Even with the consciousness of the loop you need the will to get out of it! Ever try to stop a heated argument in the middle of proving your point or worse still in the middle of fisticuffs? So you have to have the will to do so. Not only the will (which is the foundation of behavior change) but also some sort of inspiration (feeling) to do so. If you look at your hand the back of the hand (backend) would be the will & the front of the hand would be the desire & feeling - the hand is my structural metaphor!

ok i get it.

Seth says

M 2006-08-10 12:06:33 4123

You must have been asleep ! The roadmap was close. Gaza was returned. Lebanon was vacated. Abu Mazen was in the mood to continue to the final negotiations then what happened? Hamas got elected. Even so, Olmert was elected on a platform to return the West Bank. THEN: Hamas started shelling Israel from Gaza & kidnapped & killed soldiers from the IDF. Hezbos kidnapped IDF & killed soldiers & started shelling Israel in the North.
Your solution is flawed to the core!

Look nobody here is going to tell you that peace is easy. That "the other side made the last lob" in the right-wrong game is no justification to continue the loop. Obvisouly US (and in particular the Bush administration) and Israel were not serious about the road map or Palestine would have been established in the first years of this century. But no, US did not pressure Israel in this matter. Those are the mamby pamby policies regarding Israel that continue to contribute to the problem. You say my solution is flawed, but you are actually using the consequences of not following it, to impeach it. Wierd, huh?

Mark de LA says

M 2006-08-10 13:14:56 4123

Somehow you think that the U.S. can force Israel to do something when it is fighting for it's life . Look, president Clinton did his best to forward his legacy by kissing the ass of Arafat & bribing him (the terrorist chief) & Israel to make nice. If ever diplomacy would have worked it should have been then. When it was very close to agreement Arafat pulled back his hand - remember Oslo ? Just what makes you think you can trust anything a terrorist says. When you are fighting for your life the world looks different than it does sitting behind your terminal (naked

) , in a peaceful area of this country, bloviating in a blog.

Thief in the Night says
It's Aug 22.

I expect a retraction if you can read this.

Seth says

Thief in the Night 2006-08-22 09:26:02 4123

It's Aug 22.
I expect a retraction if you can read this.

No retraction necessary. Nobody said anything was going to happen. Certainly not me. This node was just expressing an awareness of what people were speculating about.

louis vuitton online says
good url!

Is Iran planning a cataclysmic strike for August 22?

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