Murder & Merde

About: the scripts of war

source: ... seth seth 2006-08-11 08:46:41
interesting analysis as of 8/11

My script to date:

There either will be a ceas fire or there won't be a cease fire.  Let's look at both paths:

No cease fire:
Israel will mount a massive ground assault. The primary objective being to push Hezbollah back so that the range of  Katusha rockets cannot reach northern Israel.  Let us assume that they will be successful in that.  Hezbbollah will simply increase the range by resorting to more advanced rockets.  (Still victory Hezbollah).  Israel will move further into Lebenon.  I'm gonna stop there.  Looks a bit murky after that. 

A cease fire:
The Hezobollah will clain victory.  The Sheite will hail Hezbolla as defender of Muslims agains the Zionist state.  The diplomatic situation will be very fluid.    If the Lebonease  recognized Hezbollah as a legitimate force in Lebenon politics and their militia merges with the Lebonease army yet the ceasfire is seen to be holding, a kind of stable situation may emerge.  The stage then well be set for a dramatic peace initiative.   Israel and the West may accept the newly constituted Lebonease government at a barganing table to create a Palestinean state.  Hezbollah will be at the table by proxy.    Hamas will need to be at the table alos with their proxy.   It will take a while ... maybe up to a year ... for that to happen.  At any time Hezbollah and/or Hamas can derail the effort by terrorist actions.  That is pretty much what has been happening.  The only difference is that they are in a stronger bargargin postion ... but they also should have more control of the situation.  If Israel wants peace this is the time to forge it.  Otherwise we will resume as above.   If Hezbollah/Hamas see themselves in a power position in the new Palestenian state and see themselves being hailed as forcing concessions from Israel,  they should be motivated to engage in that process.
...Unfortunately your merde continues to show up in the newsroom.
Why confuse the issue.  Just abandon Israel & Iraq - let the war in Iraq degenerate to a full-fledged civil war. The result will deconfuse.  The Sunni in Iraq will merge with the Sunni in Turkey & elsewhere .  The Shia will merge with Iran. Israel & Lebanon will become the United State of Hezbo.  New Middle East ! There will then be about 30 seconds of Peace while all these forces look at the West & EU to begin the final solution & the Islamic World Dominion. After that peace is sure to break out !

Tags

  1. war
  2. scripts of war
  3. bozo
  4. scripts
  5. merde
  6. islamism
  7. islamo-fascism
  8. zionism

Comments


Mark de LA says
BTW,
source: ... That is pretty much just a character of the Fundamentalist Islamist + Christian right script.  If you want to state it why not state is as accurate as possible.
... this is NOT correct at all.  It's more like an anti-war-pacifist-appeaser versus unwilling war participant-(self-defense) situation.



Seth says
M 2006-08-11 10:19:01 4133
... The illusion that you have control, one of the problems of having an Ego, is that you can actually do something about it! 
The "illusion that I have contorl and can actually do something about it" is in your mind, not mine.    There is absolutely no element of that over here.   My words of analysis on my blog are part of my own processes of cognition.  Your criticism is ill conceived.

Mark de LA says
source: ... That is pretty much just a character of the Fundamentalist Islamist + Christian right script.  If you want to state it why not state is as accurate as possible.
... The illusion that you have control, one of the problems of having an Ego, is that you can actually do something about it!  There is a well known experiment on monkeys in the '60s or before that had two monkeys confined so that each could be given a shock at intervals. One cage had a button that the monkey could use to delay the shock for a small amount of time. The other monkey had to take the shocks anyway. The experimentalists called the monkey with the button the "executive monkey".  Alas! both monkeys were sacrificed in the end. The executive monkey had lots of ulcers & other signs of stress in his autopsy. The other did not.  Draw your own morals from that.  In any case I don't take this shit as seriously as you & probably won't.


Mark de LA says
It will always be half-baked.  Maybe the  should figure out how to privatize comments on private items - good incentive, eh ?
I don't particularly like to see them.  My comments were going to get published eventually on the 3rd solution anyway - you just gave me an anchor for it.


Seth says
Well, i find your script, even more half baked than my own, in fact it is pretty close to being incoherant.  Let's take a look ..
source: Marks's script above

Israel & Lebanon will become the United State of Hezbo.  New Middle East !
This is just stupid and not going to happen.  The  military might of US+Israel outweights all of the Middle East combined in a all out war.  It is even doubtful that the Isralie government could be destablized by asymetrical warfare given that it will not be just sitting there letting it happen.  Sorry, can't take saying this script as anything more than a sick joke.  The whole point of writing a script is that the script actually could happen.
There will then be about 30 seconds of Peace while all these forces look at the West & EU to begin the final solution & the Islamic World Dominion.
That is pretty much just a character of the Fundamentalist Islamist + Christian right script.  If you want to state it why not state is as accurate as possible.

Seth says
Well it could go either way:  
Israel could drive a wedge between the Sunni and the Shia causing a regional civial war. 
Or all Muslims Fundamentalists could rally behind Hezbollah ...
source: Cause for anxiety
Just as Hezbollah's wily chief Hassan Nasrallah intended, the conflict is being viewed by many Arabs - and their leaders - through a historical prism. Nasrallah's 6000-strong band of guerillas is making every metre of ground difficult and bloody for Israeli forces and paving the way for a hostile phase of anti-Israeli, and anti-US, politicking.
...
On Arab television - as reliable an opinion poll as there is in the Middle East - viewer emails and talkback calls seem almost unanimous in their support of Hezbollah, with most seeing the bedlam of the past month through a David v Goliath context (the scene of the biblical battle was not far down the road). That Israel chose on Thursday not to exercise its option to fully invade southern Lebanon said to many callers that Hezbollah had spooked the mighty Israeli army's commanders and politicians.
Given the historical context i am more prone to bet on the latter; especially since therin lies the path to substantial gains. 
I don't appreciate the rest of your analysis.  You should wait untill i publish my script. Then your considered comments would be more than welcome.  But publishing half baked information from a private node is not a well though out fastblogit etiquite.

Seth says
Also i would like to note that there is a big difference between these kind of scripts and propoganda. When on side projects propoganda they do not necessarily believe it themselves. Telling the difference between partisan propoganda and a feasable script is part of this exercise.

Seth says
M 2006-08-11 10:24:27 4133
BTW,
source: ... That is pretty much just a character of the Fundamentalist Islamist + Christian right script.  If you want to state it why not state is as accurate as possible.
... this is NOT correct at all.  It's more like an anti-war-pacifist-appeaser versus unwilling war participant-(self-defense) situation.
No way, Jose.  A anti-war-pacifist would write a script where the war went away, not one where one side won.  You are not makin any sense.  Apparently you are having troubles with keeping the different agents involved consistent within your modeling process going on inside your pea mind.  Maybe you could expand your ram a bit so that you will have enough processing power to keep the sides separated. Btw, my script does not involve appeasement.  It just recognizes where gains have been made and how those gains affect future consequences.  To deny those gains is to deny reality.  Note also, that there may not be a ceasfire (or did you miss that in my script).  That is the senario where Israel/Us does not accept Hezbollah's gains.  Then there will be a vicious battel over those gains.  I am not in a position to sit here and call that battel. Nor am i in a position to anticipate what the boundaries of it will be.  Sorry, i don't script into a fantacy land. 

Seth says
Look let me explain about writing these scripts.  This would have come to your attention in a more coherant manner would that you had waited for me to make my node prublc.  When one writes a script for a partisan in the battle, one tryes to determine the script that they are operating under.  This takes a lot of reading.  It does not imply that one is taking that side of the situation.  When i publish my own script, that will be me trying to predict a script which will actually happen.  I probably will never write the script that i want to happen.  That would just be a exercise in wishful thinking.  Instead what this is, is an exercise in trying to understand the actual dynamics that obtain and how things may change.  All of the scripts evolve over time to be somewhat consistant with the facts on the ground, Baghdad Bob not withstanding. 

Of course, that being said, we are certainly free to be active participants. If one believes a script where X will happen based upon precursor of A, B and C; then helping B to happen is indicated.  Without a believable script in such a complex situation, how can we believe that our actions will have the effect that we desire.  As i sit here the only way i can hope to affect the outcome of any event is with my vote and with my (obviously limited) ability to convince others on this blog and in the wider blogosphere.  But effecting the outcome of events is not my primary intention ... i have no illusions there.  What i am primarially doing here is attempting to understand what is happening.

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-08-11 14:10:45 4133
Also i would like to note that there is a big difference between these kind of scripts and propoganda. When on side projects propoganda they do not necessarily believe it themselves. Telling the difference between partisan propoganda and a feasable script is part of this exercise.
What makes you think that you can tell which is which given your pre-disposition to make one side wrong or another. The big-dipper effect is alive & well everywhere where there are humans.

Seth says
M 2006-08-12 09:09:02 4133
What makes you think that you can tell which is which given your pre-disposition to make one side wrong or another. The big-dipper effect is alive & well everywhere where there are humans.
Well i do at least make an attempt not to take sides.  I think i am getting better at it.   For me there is no moral issue.  I am trying to approach it as a historian might ... a historian who perhaps is so removed from the period as not to care who is right or worng.  I think that approach has the most chance of making accurate predictions.  

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-08-12 09:16:34 4133
M 2006-08-12 09:09:02 4133
What makes you think that you can tell which is which given your pre-disposition to make one side wrong or another. The big-dipper effect is alive & well everywhere where there are humans.
Well i do at least make an attempt not to take sides.  I think i am getting better at it.   For me there is no moral issue.  I am trying to approach it as a historian might ... a historian who perhaps is so removed from the period as not to care who is right or wrong.  I think that approach has the most chance of making accurate predictions.  
Did you read as equally large a tome from the Jewish perspective of the argument as you did for the Islamist ?

Seth says
M 2006-08-12 10:05:51 4133
Did you read as equally large a tome from the Jewish perspective of the argument as you did for the Islamist ?
Well i read Exodus as a young adult; that's a pretty large tome.  In 1967 i remember sitting in a restaurant in Torrance California contemplating whether i should go to Israel to help this small nation that was certainly going to be squashed by belligerent Arab powers.  I think over the course of my lifetime i have been duly exposed to the Jewish mind set.  However, only recently have i started reading from the other side.

Mark de LA says

URL: ...

Since becoming president, he has not once visited our greatest ally in the region. Rather, he has gone to places like Cairo to tell the Muslim world how much he likes it. He also stunningly trashed the oath of office he took by saying it is “part of my responsibility as president of the United States to fight against negative stereotypes of Islam wherever they appear.”

And, of course, he apologized for the “sexuality” and “mindless violence” from the West permeating the Internet. But Internet porn and creepy videos are little match for virginity tests, stoning women and beheading Jews — all for the fun of it.

... I ask just one thing. Since Obama has been in office has the Middle East improved relations with the USA or have they gotten worse since Bush left office?


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