Where are we in the script ?

About: Disarmament not on agenda


The Isralie/Hezbollah war has scrolled off the front page, but it continues.  It looks like we are at this point in my  script ...
source: my script (predictive) erroniously published 4133
The Hezobollah will clain victory.  The Sheite will hail Hezbolla as defender of Muslims agains the Zionist state.  The diplomatic situation will be very fluid.    If the Lebanese  recognized Hezbollah as a legitimate force in Lebanon politics and their militia merges with the Lebanease army yet the ceasfire is seen to be holding, a kind of stable situation may emerge.
 I claim that Nasrallah is talking to the Lebanese government behind the scenes and is trying to implement the merger of Hezbollah with the Lebanese army.  This, of course, is an end run around UN Resolution 1701 which reads:
source: text of UN 1701 emphasis mine
OP3. Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the consent of the government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the government of Lebanon;

If Hezbollah is the Lebanese army, then UN 1701 OP3 has been satisfied.

The diplomatic situation will is very fluid. It looks to me like they will be negotiating the terms of the next engagement. 

source: Hezbollah out, army in as peace takes hold

 LEBANON'S army moved south at dawn yesterday a day after the cabinet approved the deployment under a United Nations-mandated ceasefire. Also, an aircraft of Lebanon's Middle East Airlines landed in Beirut from Amman, the first passenger jet to arrive since the state's only international airport was bombed during the month-long offensive.

Tags

  1. israel
  2. hezbollah
  3. un 1701
  4. scripts
  5. predictions
  6. war
  7. predictive scripts

Comments


Seth says
Interesting wording ...
source: Tony Snow
Asked whether Washington was confident that Beirut would take the necessary steps, Snow replied: "The general answer is yes, that the Lebanese government understands the importance of making sure that you don't have what amounts to a de facto competitor, in the form of Hezbollah, operating independently."
... note that it is consistent with the loop hole that i am pointing out in this item. 

Seth says
Me thinks that Condoleezza Rice's script contains a bit too much wishful thinking.  To write a script that predicts the future accurately you must acknowledge the facts on the ground.   Hezbollah has gained  political strength in Lebanon.   Does Conde think that they will not use it to their advantage?   Bear in mind that i am not taking sides here.  I am not talking about what people "should" do.  I am merely trying to predict the future. 

Seth says
M 2006-08-16 08:48:59 4171
I suspect that just declaring that the Hezbos are the Lebanese army is not within the spirit of  UN1701.  An army usually is identified with having uniforms & other things ... training, hierarchical control etc. There may be something about that in the Geneva Conventions or what people quote so often as the Laws of War. Also IMHO they should not hide amongst their civilian population nor kill their own population.
Well we should separate actions from words, as per 4172.  The cease fire is actions, that is actually happening for the moment.  UN1701 is words and so is what Saniora says and so is what "an official in the Prime Minister's Office" says and what Kofi Annan says and so is what Nasrallah says.  When the next phase begins people will try to justify their actions with more words.  This loop hole in the resolution is big enough to accomodate justifications on both sides.  But there is a bit of action-reality to it beyond mere justification.  Me thinks it gives Nasrallah a clearer path to merge with the Lebanese government and with his newly won political strength (also real) it makes it, imho, likely to happen.  This puts Israel in the ackward position of waging war directly against Lebanon.  Now of course the Isralie script will read quite differently.

Mark de LA says
From the Washington Post comes this bit  of unsavory information:
source: ... Hezbollah indicated it would be willing to pull back its fighters and weapons in exchange for a promise from the army not to probe too carefully for underground bunkers and weapons caches, the officials said.

Hezbollah Balks At Withdrawal From the South
Sure, we'll disarm but you can't have our rockets nor look in our bunkers.
Anyway, I suspect that the Hezbos want to help out the people so much for 2 reasons:
  • Make sure they don't leave any evidence around & maybe manufacture some.
  • Try to win the hearts & minds of the returning refugees. (The media already says they have it)

Seth says
M 2006-08-16 09:37:56 4171
I guess that the previous UN 1559 calling for the "... disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias;" was just words - no action.  Same will happen with 1701.
1701 already has produced action.  There is a cease-fire on the ground.  But i tend to agree, most of the rest of the script written by 1701 is not likely to happen as it was intended by the authors.  I do think that some entitiy called a "Lebanese army" will be seen to move into the south.   Whether  the  UNIFIL force ever happens is less clear.  And if you follow the news i don't see how you could think that Hezbollah will disarm or be disarmed except perhaps by Israel.

Seth says
I heard on Fox news that Hezbollah said something to the effect that they would not bear arms in the south and would allow the Lebanese Army to take them if they found any.  It is no secret that the Lebanese Army is a pretty wimpy outfit and cannot force Hezbollah to do anything.  So it is up to Nasrallah what he allows to happen. On the one hand he wants to keep the cease-fire, on the other hand he will not be humiliated.     It is possible that Israel will allow things to skate by in a vague cloud of relying on statements from the Army and UNIFL, together wiith some carefully stages photo ops.  I'm going out on a limb saying that he will essentially merge with and take over the Army.  But outright take over of the Army may not be necessary.  if there is no risk in a prediction,  why bother to make it.  It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

Seth says
We get a more precise description of what is happening here ...
source: Middle East News
Beirut - Hezbollah has agreed that the Lebanese army can take any weapon 'found' in the area where troops are planning to deploy in the south, Information Minister Ghazi Aridi said Wednesday.

'If any weapon is found, even our brothers in Hezbollah said: 'let the Lebanese army take it,' he told reporters after a cabinet meeting.

and some solid analysis here ...
source: Stratfor accurate global intelligence, analysis, and forecasting
The Lebanese army has no desire to confront Hezbollah militarily. The armed forces, which are largely made up of Shia and Hezbollah sympathizers, operates under the belief instilled in them through Syria that the army should cooperate with the resistance and that Hezbollah is a friend of the armed forces. At the same time, Hezbollah does not want to deal with the domestic repercussions of using force against the country's military when it is promoting itself as a nationalist movement serving Lebanese interests.
Also NPR was reporting that the French are balking at sendin in UNFIL troops unless Hezbollah is disarmend, so it is not just Israel.  So it looks to me that there will not be any substantive arms in the South by the time the Army and UnFil arrive. 

The rearment of Hezbollah from Iran, which some are saying is going on now, is another question. 

Seth says
source: Aljazeera is reporting today that ...
The Israeli military has begun its withdrawal from southern Lebanon, handing over positions there to a UN force for the first time, the army said on Thursday.
I didn't see that reported on CNN or Fox.  Did you?

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-08-16 17:23:29 4171
source: Aljazeera is reporting today that ...
The Israeli military has begun its withdrawal from southern Lebanon, handing over positions there to a UN force for the first time, the army said on Thursday.
I didn't see that reported on CNN or Fox.  Did you?
There was some of it. It is not much to celebrate. Once the southern part of Lebanon is saturated with the regular army & the UN troops the Hezbos can launch their scuds with impunity from above the river . Israel can't strike back.

Mark de LA says
The reporting today is that the Hezbos have faded back into the population along with their weapons. The French only want to contribute 400 troops. In a while or so the Middle East will be back at square 1.

Seth says
M 2006-08-16 17:30:38 4171
Once the southern part of Lebanon is saturated with the regular army & the UN troops the Hezbos can launch their scuds with impunity from above the river . Israel can't strike back.
Nope, if Hezbollah launches missels at Israel from above the river with impunity, they will strike back.  I will give you about 20/1 odds on that.   But luckily we will never need to settel the bet. Hezbollah is licking their wounds.

Seth says
M 2006-08-17 14:37:51 4171
The reporting today is that the Hezbos have faded back into the population along with their weapons. The French only want to contribute 400 troops. In a while or so the Middle East will be back at square 1.
Well not exactly to square one.  The Isralie commission that will investigate the war, me thinks, is going to have an immense effect on what happens next.  But that commission is going to take some time ... i've heard reports of 6 months or more.  I doubt that anything will happen on the battlefield untill that process takes hold.  Who knows we may even get into the next sentence of my predictive script that you erroniously published ..
source: my script (predictive) erroniously published see 4133
The stage then well be set for a dramatic peace initiative.   Israel and the West may accept the newly constituted Lebonease government at a barganing table to create a Palestinean state.

Seth says
M 2006-08-19 23:27:48 4171
As long as the UN Secretary General Kofi Anonymous keeps blaming Israel no matter what I suspect they will. To resupply the Hezbos is against 1701, but he didn't mention it.
I don't see what Kofi Annan has to do with my question. He is diplomat.  He is not a combatant.  I asked, M whether the Hezbollah would be able to rearm. That is a military issue.  It it a question for the battlefield to decide.  Me, i would never try to call such a battle.  I'm simply not close enough to the action and have no special knowledge about it.  So, Does M answer my question?

Mark de LA says
Maybe NOT if Iran & Syria are now rearming the Hezbos.
seth 2006-08-19 07:49:36 4171
I think the Israeli commando raid is more of an incident than a "unraveling".  I doubt the the cease-fire will unravel, me thinks it will disintegrate.  And it will do that when one side or the other decides to go on a major offensive. 


Mark de LA says
Signs of unraveling? uri http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,209419,00.html


Seth says
I think the Israeli commando raid is more of an incident than a "unraveling".  I doubt the the cease-fire will unravel, me thinks it will disintegrate.  And it will do that when one side or the other decides to go on a major offensive. 

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-08-19 07:49:36 4171
I think the Israeli commando raid is more of an incident than a "unraveling".  I doubt the the cease-fire will unravel, me thinks it will disintegrate.  And it will do that when one side or the other decides to go on a major offensive. 
Unraveling of a shoddy garment can begin with the first bad stitch!

Mark de LA says
M 2006-08-19 10:05:22 4171
Maybe NOT if Iran & Syria are now rearming the Hezbos.
seth 2006-08-19 07:49:36 4171
I think the Israeli commando raid is more of an incident than a "unraveling".  I doubt the the cease-fire will unravel, me thinks it will disintegrate.  And it will do that when one side or the other decides to go on a major offensive. 
So does S think that rearming the Hezbos is fair game according to 1701 ?

Seth says
M 2006-08-19 10:06:39 4171
M 2006-08-19 10:05:22 4171
Maybe NOT if Iran & Syria are now rearming the Hezbos.
seth 2006-08-19 07:49:36 4171
I think the Israeli commando raid is more of an incident than a "unraveling".  I doubt the the cease-fire will unravel, me thinks it will disintegrate.  And it will do that when one side or the other decides to go on a major offensive. 
So does S think that rearming the Hezbos is fair game according to 1701 ?
All's fair in love and war.   So, does M think that they will be able to ?

Mark de LA says
As long as the UN Secretary General Kofi Anonymous keeps blaming Israel no matter what I suspect they will. To resupply the Hezbos is against 1701, but he didn't mention it.


Mark de LA says
Here is a peek at one person's impression of what is going on in Israel-Lebanon situation.


Seth says
M 2006-08-19 10:06:39 4171
M 2006-08-19 10:05:22 4171
Maybe NOT if Iran & Syria are now rearming the Hezbos.
seth 2006-08-19 07:49:36 4171
I think the Israeli commando raid is more of an incident than a "unraveling".  I doubt the the cease-fire will unravel, me thinks it will disintegrate.  And it will do that when one side or the other decides to go on a major offensive. 
So does S think that rearming the Hezbos is fair game according to 1701 ?
Now, getting back to M's question.  My answer to this question, again is "all's fair in love and war".  But that was not the answer that M wanted.  He wants me to take sides in the issue, even though i have said several times that when i read and write scripts that i do not take sides.  Well were i to take the side of the Hezbollah, i would say that i am not a party to the agreement, and never signed it, and what is more there is no mention of me disarming, and what is more i have already told the world that i have no intention of disarming.  Were i to take the side of the Isralie, i would say, as they have, that rearming is not in the spirit of the resolution. Were i to take the side of the Lebanese government, i would avoid saying that it was not fair game, but would accuse Israel of breaking the resolution, and they have.  Were i Kofi Annan i would be well aware of all sides in the issue and what the resolution was intended to achieve and would act such as to maximize the possibilities of peace.  Were i writing a predictive script, i would say the question has no bearing on my spript. Were i taking the moral highground in the arguments, i would say nothing at all. 

Mark de LA says
Here is a picture that says a lot (circa 2000).  Since the UN under Kofi Annan's so-called leadership is inept & prejudiced against Israel I would expect the eternal script of condemning Israel.   Otoh, I wonder what Israel is supposed to do - negotiate with terrorists? I wonder if S really understands the terrorist script.  It is much like a blackmailer. Create terror (via violence, kidnapping, murder of anyone not just combatants) etc. then sue for peace & then back to square one.  


Seth says
Well i am in the enviable postion of not needing to take sides in the Middle East.  I have no dog in that war whatsoever.  I can see actions of Israel which i can honestly call barbaric.  I can see actions of Hezbollah and Hammas which i can honestly call barbaric. I can see the suffering of the Palestenians and i can see the suffering of the Jews.  I see no reason that taking sides will lend any more accuracy to my stidies. 

America has traditionally sided with the Jews.  That bias may be justified given the demographic make up of our country.  But with that
bias must there also come a mandate to ignore their misdeeds?  If there is a path to peace in the Middle East it will be based upon an even handed reading of the needs of the people in the region.  I think Kofi Annan knows that. That the things he says about Israel do not mesh with the scripts you hear from US politicians, does not mean that they are any less true in the eyes of the world.

Seth says
If you doubt that there is another side to this issue, you should read this entire article ...
source: US has to choose: Israel or the ME By Soumaya Ghannoushi

While evangelising about democracy and reform, the US and increasingly Europe continue to give Israel open leave punish the Palestinian people collectively for their electoral choice, through air raids, ground incursions, siege and starvation.

...
Its massive military arsenal has been used to impose and expand illegal settlement, pursue collective punishment of the local populations and terrorise its neighbours through raids, kidnappings, assassinations, massacres, violations of air space and territorial waters and detentions of scores of prisoners with impunity. 

Now i am not saying that there is any more truth here than there is to the neocon rhetoric from the other side.  What i am saying, is that to choose to believe just the rhetoric that comes from our government, is not to understand the whole truth.

Seth says
Here is a some indication re my prediction that the Lebanese Army will merge with Hezbollah:
source: Alarm as Lebanese army urged to resist Israel
AN INTERNAL Lebanese army statement has called for troops to stand "alongside your resistance and your people who astonished the world with its steadfastness and destroyed the prestige of the so-called invincible army after it was defeated".
Thing is that there is also the Cedar Revolution.  It goes without saying that the political situation in Lebanon is very fluid.  Problem is that in such situations frequently popular strong men emerge to unify the population and tell them what they want to think  ... hmm are there any of those lurking around.  Thing is, would Israel/US allow such an event to occur within the internal politics of this quasi soverign nation?  Well you will get no further predictions from me, but it is a situation that bears careful watching.

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