The drums of war on Iran


M 2006-08-23 16:55:15 4217
Hyping catastrophe & world wars is not the way to make peace.
But ask yourself, where this hype is comming from ...
source: NYT
Some senior Bush administration officials and top Republican lawmakers are voicing anger that American spy agencies have not issued more ominous warnings about the threats that they say Iran presents to the United States.
Now i have been reading a lot of news lately and watching a lot of cable TV.  But more important, i've been watching my own mind in regards to the Iran threat.  Four months ago i thought it was unthinkable to launch a military action against Iran.  Now i think about it a lot.  I am not immune to the drums of war.  The question we should be asking ourselves is whether the drums are telling of a real threat.  Deep down in my gut i suspect that they are not.  Don't forget that is the oldest trick in the war book, make your enemy seem strong, make people scared of them.  Establishing a viable threat is absolutely necessary before you can wage a war. 

Ahmadinejad is riding high of this attention.  The more he threatens and destabalizes, the higher oil prices rise, and the more money he gets for his adgenda.  And he does have a very gloomy adgenda.  That is the script of the beat of the drums of this war. 

Sombody should get a message to Ahmadinejad and tell him to shut the fuck up. Does anybody know a different beat ?

Update at 8/31/2006 deadline: Even though "The U.S. military is operating under the assumption that Iran is five to eight years away", Bush strikes the next beats on the Drum: "there must be consequences for Irans defiance of demands that it stop enriching uranium".

Update 9/8/2006
source: Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani

"These sanctions that America has put on the agenda would hurt the world and the region before they hurt Iran" , Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani said in a Friday prayer sermon carried live on state radio.  "I hope they come to their senses and resolve what Iran is seeking with negotiations and do not let things become intense, ... will not give up scientific progress, one of whose signs is progress in nuclear energy. ... They cannot make this nation fall on its knees, ... "
This Ayatollah is the head of the government and not Ahmadinejad.  I'm not sure that he has a softer voice.

Update 9/14/06  The US calls for sanctions complaining that Iran is  aggressively building atomic bombs  as IAEA calls US Congress Report on Iran Dishonest.  (Hey i'm testing out the new political linkage syntax)

Update 11-13-2006
source: CNN
"They (the Iranians) have to be afraid of the consequences if there isn't a compromise," spokeswoman Miri Eisin said Olmert told journalists on the flight to Washington.

Olmert appeared, however, to play down a senior Israeli official's suggestion that Israel is preparing for a military strike against Iran's nuclear program.

Asked to comment on Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh's remarks, Olmert replied that on such matters, "we have to be very careful about what we say," Eisin said. Sneh said last week that he considered a pre-emptive strike a last resort, but added that "even the last resort is sometimes the only resort."
So, unfortunately, more and more it looks like Israel might take a  preemptive strike against Iran.  And predictably "Responding to Olmert's comments, Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said his country would mobilize its army if Israel attacked Iran".  I just hope that they correctly calculate the extent of Iran's reaction.

Update 11-19-2006
source: Iran News
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has found no strong evidence that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon, according to a US magazine report, details of which were released Sunday.
Obviously this is not a definitive report, and even if it is true Iran could switch their 60,000 centrifuges to making weapons grade enrichment, but it does underline the fact that the case being made for a preemtive strike is not in response to a clear and present danger.  It is in response to the fear of an "if-come".

Update 12-21-2006
source: nyt
WASHINGTON, Dec. 20 The United States and Britain will begin moving additional warships and strike aircraft into the Persian Gulf region in a display of military resolve toward Iran that will come as the United Nations continues to debate possible sanctions against the country, Pentagon and military officials said Wednesday.
One can only hope that Bush will not see a preemtive strike on Iran as part of the solution to his debacle in Iraq.

Update 08-15-2007
source: Blog opinion: A prelude to war: What's really behind Bush's Iran move
The White House hawks in Dick Cheney's office and elsewhere who want to stage an attack on Iran are clearly winning the internal power stuggle. And an often overlooked sub-plot on the long road toward war with Tehran is this: How could Bush stage an attack on Iran without the authorization of a skeptical, Democratic Congress?

Today, the White House has solved that pesky problem in one fell swoop. By explicitly linking the Iranian elite guard into the post 9/11 "global war on terror" in Iraq and Afghanistan, Bush's lawyers would certainly now argue that any military strike on Iran is now covered by the October 2002 authorization to use military force in Iraq, as part of their overly sweeping response to the 2001 attacks.
While this blogger's opinion is not necessarily the correct way to interpert the event reported in the Washington Post, it does hang together well.  Everybody thinks it would be crazy for Bush to pick a war with Iran before he leaves office ... but then we all though he would be crazy to invade Iraq and he went ahead and did it anyway.  More here from the NYT.

Update 9-17-2007
source: Telegraph UK
The world should "prepare for war" with Iran, the French foreign minister has said, significantly escalating tensions over the country's nuclear programme.

Update 12-04-2007
source: NYT
A new assessment by American intelligence agencies released Monday concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains frozen, contradicting a judgment two years ago that Tehran was working relentlessly toward building a nuclear bomb.
 Bush says: "Look, Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous, and Iran will be dangerous if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon." Whatever ... but it looks like we will not be having that war with Iran afterall.

Update 03-31-2009
source: The Atlantic
Netanyahu to Obama: Stop Iran"Or I Will

In an interview conducted shortly before he was sworn in today as prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu laid down a challenge for Barack Obama. The American president, he said, must stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons"and quickly"or an imperiled Israel may be forced to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities itself.
... Assuming this "interview" is factual, it didn't take Netayanhu long to beat the drums of war.  His push for a quick resolution is particularly irritating. 

Update 11-14-2011

The November 8th report from the IAEA indicates that Iran may still have a continuing nuclear weapons program and states that "Iran may have planned and undertaken preparatory experimentation which would be useful were Iran to carry out a test of a nuclear explosive device". 

Mitt Romney, a Republican presidential hopeful, declares "If we re-elect Barack Obama, Iran will have a nuclear weapon. And if you elect Mitt Romney, Iran will not have a nuclear weapon".

Tags

  1. iran
  2. war
  3. ahmadinejad
  4. drums of war
  5. nuclear standoff
  6. buckley
  7. nukes
  8. seymour hersh
  9. iran strike
  10. events
  11. history tracking
  12. iaea
  13. item 4240
  14. drums of war iran

Comments


Seth says
Now that i think about it, this does belong here ...
source: Schneirer on Security
Another thought experiment: Imagine for a moment that the British government arrested the 23 suspects without fanfare. Imagine that the TSA and its European counterparts didn't engage in pointless airline-security measures like banning liquids. And imagine that the press didn't write about it endlessly, and that the politicians didn't use the event to remind us all how scared we should be. If we'd reacted that way, then the terrorists would have truly failed.

It's time we calm down and fight terror with antiterror. This does not mean that we simply roll over and accept terrorism. There are things our government can and should do to fight terrorism, most of them involving intelligence and investigation -- and not focusing on specific plots.

But our job is to remain steadfast in the face of terror, to refuse to be terrorized. Our job is to not panic every time two Muslims stand together checking their watches. There are approximately 1 billion Muslims in the world, a large percentage of them not Arab, and about 320 million Arabs in the Middle East, the overwhelming majority of them not terrorists. Our job is to think critically and rationally, and to ignore the cacophony of other interests trying to use terrorism to advance political careers or increase a television show's viewership.

Now, in general, i am not in favor of manipulating the press ... but one wonders if there is not some way to encourage it not to beat the drums of war quite so loud.


Seth says
Btw, are we still following Zarqawi's script ?
source: 3939
It suggests carrying out a range of terrorist acts for which it will falsely implicate Iran, including bombings in the West and kidnappings. It also recommends declaring the existence of a relationship between Iran and terrorist groups

Seth says
Finally somebody says it ...
source: William M. Arkin Washington Post
Because I know the habits and behavior of the experts, their ulterior motives, and their sorry track-record, what they have to say about Iran has to be filtered and discounted.
... read the whole article, it is a good analysis. 

Just a note on timing: If Bush starts the war with Iran, does he not need a resolution from Congress?  If so, then he will probably do it before the November mid term election.  Otherwise he may not have the majority in Congress to pass it.  If Israel starts the war, then Olmert will do it before his government falls ... perhaps to prevent it's fall.  The next couple months are going to be a clif hanger.  I suggest investing in CNN stock.

Seth says
I'm not sure i agree with everything this guy says, but it is sure nice to hear somebody putting dampers on the drums.  Start looking around for some real solid even handed intelligence about Iran.  Find out if the are really a threat to our security ... even the security of Israel.  Don't succum to the drums.  Look for the facts.  Ignore the op-ed pieces. 

Seth says
source: Washington Post
Stopping enrichment is the ultimate goal of the entire negotiation process. By complying, Iran would lose its game before it even started. If the 5+1 countries would like to convince Iran to give up on such a crucial issue, they have to offer more than some economic promises.

This, in my opinion, could only be a solid guarantee by the U.S. that it would abandon its policies to topple the Islamic Republic either by military force or internal unrest with ultimately a non-violent revolution fueled by various American foundations -- another velvet revolution.

Such a guarantee will be good news for the organic pro-democracy activists, if backed up by meaningful signs such as dismantling the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO) and stopping funding quasi-human-rights advocacy groups such as IDHCR which pursue regime change under cover of documenting violations of human rights, as was reported earlier this year by Washington Post's Karl Vick and David Finkel from Tehran.

U.S. regime change policies have been damaging the moderates and pro-democracy movement by enabling the Islamic Republic to paint them as instruments of America seeking to destabilize and topple the regime. Iran wont stop until this does.

Perhaps there is a way to avoid  a conflict with Iran.  Buckley asked the question: "If what they want is a religious war, are we disposed to fight it?"   We should revisit that space and ask a different question:  If we don't want a religious war, are we disposed to stop toppleing their regimes? 

Seth says
We see another glimmer of an agreement here ...
source: Hopes rise for EU-Iran nuclear deal
European and Iranian negotiators on Sunday concluded their most positive meeting for over a year, raising the possibility

Seth says
choy 2006-09-10 15:41:53 4240
... the religion of hate ...
Which religion is that one?

Mark de LA says
Well maybe if they would quit waging war on Western powers we could do just that! I wonder how much of our blood & national treasure could have been devoted to freeing ourselves of the Oil Addiction rather than protecting ourselves from another 9-11 & the Islamofaschists.  But, that is another chicken & egg problem. I would be real happy for the USA to leave the Middle East to it's own rot - but first I think the Middle East would need to free itself from their Western Money Addiction!


Mark de LA says
seth 2006-09-10 16:55:18 4240
choy 2006-09-10 15:41:53 4240
... the religion of hate ...
Which religion is that one?
The one that BinLaden & his followers preach!

Seth says
M 2006-09-10 21:14:06 4240
seth 2006-09-10 16:41:11 4240
choy 2006-09-10 15:41:53 4240
Someone has forgotten the fatwa that Osama ben Laden got from the blind sheik of the first World Trade Center bombing fame in order to declare a jihad against the United States & pertetrate the 9-11 atrocity. The question is will Osama and the rest of the legion of the religion of hate give up their desire to topple the West.
Well, yes, i too have heard of, and not forgotten,  this alleged "desire" of militant Islamic radicals to "topple the West".  But I think it would be easire to make the case that 9-11 was a "Get the hell out of the Middle East"  message, rather than an agressive move to conquer the West.  You really do need to document this alleged intention.  I doubt that there is any verifiable substance there.  This alleged intention smells like WMD smelled in 2003.
I guess you have missed the CNN special "The Hunt for Bin Laden" & others that have been running for the last week.
Yeah i watched it last night.  There was a quote from Ramzi Yousef where he said why he did it.  Also same from Bin Laden.  Both quotes support my point that their intention is to for the US to "Get the hell out of the Middle East". 

Look every religion trys to spread itself.  That is what religions do, especially fundamentalist ones.  You need to spearate that tendancy from a military intention to conquer.  Now you could predict that should they be successful in getting US out of the middle east, they will  become even more agressive.  But we do not hear that threat from Islamic clerics or terrorists.  No, we hear it from spin doctors who are beating the drums of war. 

WAFM says
Some of the drumbeats of war are chronicled in this admittedly right wing book -> Interesting parallel to the ABC docudrama.
uri http://shop.wnd.com/store/item.asp?ITEM_ID=1838- look at the titles as well below the advert.
TTFN

WTTM says
The TIME mag hook almost makes me want to buy the article or subscribe - (but, I know better). If it is any good it is TREASON - giving easy information scenario to the enemy. If it is bad it just sells magazines.
"Interviews with dozens of experts and government officials in Washington, Tehran and elsewhere in the Middle East paint a sobering picture: Military action against Iran's nuclear facilities would have a decent chance of succeeding, but at a staggering cost."
All the knowledge of experts, ex-military etc at the hands of the enemy.
ALL that & an interview with the ass**le himself.

SWDYT says
SWDYT 2006-09-18 06:03:26 4240
TIME magazine want's to crank it up!  Maybe even give the enemy a heads up! What do you speculate is their motivation ?  Talk about beating the drums of war.  Is this a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Could someone stupid over there make a mistake & think this is US preparing for a war ?

Seth says
Yep drums of war.  It might be interesting to go back and find the Time article for the run up to the Iraq war ... run up to the VietNam war ... run up the the Korean war.  Time might even have this down to a template.

Seth says
... which, any way you cut it, indicates a failure of the Bush Doctrine.  If Bush had not labeled Iran "The Axis of Evil" and had not taken a hostile attitude towards this country, would we be reading this response from Ahmadinejad today?  I think not.

WTF says
I'm sure glad I lost track of this shit for a week!

Seth says
source: M 2006-11-17 10:11:10 4995
FYI, Netanyahu is supposed to be on Beck tonight on the same channel for a whole hour.
It was interesting. Worth while if you read between the lines. No transcript. Not much new, it was more interesting in terms of Netanyahu's way of making the case for prempting a nuclear attack. 
I missed it, perhaps i'll get it on the rerun. 

Me thinks, Netanyahu's current adgenda is promoting a preemptive strike by Israel against Iran's nuclear industry.  However, if you think about it, based upon the US's strong support of Israel, and based upon Ahmadinejad's rhetoric, if they strike, the reprecussions comming from Iran will toll against the US as well.  Hense, Israel cannot act independant of US.  So watch the rhetoric comming from the administration in the next month of so ... see if it changes to become more hard line and balligerant.  If it does, invest in oil futures.

Btw, it is kind of silly to make on-going comments on a private item, with a FYI intro.

Mark de LA says
The question becomes do you believe Ahmadinejad is a pussy cat or a maniac. The sign posts mentioned by Netanyahu were that Ahmadinejad is speaking out in public that he intends to wipe out Israel & next the US. If he was bluffing he would hide his intentions & his technology capabilities.  The next sign post will be when he announces the atomic bomb. Some say that is 3-5 years. He currently claims to be finishing up on his full nuclearization program. How long can the world wait & play this wonderful game of chicken ? What does anyone have that can keep brinksmanship from turning into nuclear blackmail? What does the US do when Ahmadinejad says to the Western countries - "Get the Hell out of the middle East!" ?  A deterrant is only useful if the enemy wants to live!


Seth says
Yes Ahmadinejad is a crazed empassioned demigod.  But does he have the power to launch his country into a war that could revert it back to the dark ages?  I'm not so sure he does. 

Being afraid of an if-come and then acting in a way to bring on your most dire fears is not, imho, a good stratagy.  If the US really wants to prevent more nuclear powers and being blackmailed, there are more direct ways to prevent it.

Seth says
It's interesting how the Jerusalem Post picks up on what Seymour Hersh says and reworks it without  adding any new information ... or did they ... you tell me.  I'm still predicting that if this strike happens, it will come first from Israel. 

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-11-18 13:21:16 4240
Yes Ahmadinejad is a crazed empassioned demigod.  But does he have the power to launch his country into a war that could revert it back to the dark ages?  I'm not so sure he does. 

Being afraid of an if-come and then acting in a way to bring on your most dire fears is not, imho, a good stratagy.  If the US really wants to prevent more nuclear powers and being blackmailed, there are more direct ways to prevent it.
What in the hell is an if-come ?  What are the ways ?

Seth says
M 2006-11-20 10:44:45 4240
seth 2006-11-18 13:21:16 4240
Yes Ahmadinejad is a crazed empassioned demigod.  But does he have the power to launch his country into a war that could revert it back to the dark ages?  I'm not so sure he does. 

Being afraid of an if-come and then acting in a way to bring on your most dire fears is not, imho, a good stratagy.  If the US really wants to prevent more nuclear powers and being blackmailed, there are more direct ways to prevent it.
What in the hell is an if-come ?  What are the ways ?
I had though that "if-come" was in common parlance, but apparently it is not.  When you do  something on an if-come, you do it based upon an hypothetical event that may never happen.  We invaded Iraq on an if-come that they would use their mythical WMD.  Israel may bomb Iran's nuclear industry on an if-come that they might some day produce a nuclear bomb.  I scoped out a way to avoid Iran making the bomb in 4909.  Rejecting that solution, out of hand, pretty much indicates to me that the US administration's policy is not motivated by a sincere desire to eliminate nuclear weapons in the world.

Seth says
M 2006-11-21 10:51:40 4240
I think that Iran has already promised to play the Oil Trump card & cause global Jihad against Israel & America. That is about the same thing Iran promises even if there is no bombing, except that without the bombing the time line gets closer & Iran has nukes to play with.
Yes that is pretty much the script that is being floated.  What i would like to read is a more detailed military analysis of just how vunerable the oil resources in the Gulf actually are, how high the price of oil will go, how effectively a Sheii lead Jihad would be, and how likely Ahmadinejad is to wage such a war vs being deposed.  Then, assuming such a war transpires, how, if ever, does the dust settle?  Waging a war without having an inkling about the likely outcome is pretty stupid, imho.  We have already juped from the frying pot into the fire out of fear of an if-come in Iraq.  I doubt that the American people are in a rush to do it again in Iran.

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-11-20 11:31:34 4240
Rejecting that solution, out of hand, pretty much indicates to me that the US administration's policy is not motivated by a sincere desire to eliminate nuclear weapons in the world.
I don't think the US is interested in eliminating nuclear weapons in the world!  I don't think that is workable.  They are a deterrant to those who want to live which is mostly everyone except the Islamist-extremists & suicide bombers.  The idea is just as silly as saying, lets all the cops give up their guns & make a pact with all the criminals not to carry or get guns either, IMHO.


Mark de LA says
Maybe the Global Orgasm for Peace is the right idea.  I'll do my part on Dec 22! 


Mark de LA says
That's not a very big prediction S. Israel is small & can ill afford to be hit by nukes in say Haifa & Tel-Aviv & maybe Jerusalem.  While the extremists don't really care about how many Palestinians are killed (they are all then martyrs for the cause) - they just want to count the dead Jews. It is strange that they will have nothing left worth fighting for if Iran does bomb Israel & yet I bet they think they will have achieved a victory if they do.

Seth says
M 2006-11-20 12:29:10 4240
IMHO eliminating everyone else's nuclear weapons seems less likely than preventing more from being made. Those who already have them have managed not to use them except in Hiroshima & Nagasaki which were justified & ended the war in the Pacific.  Those who may be about to make & use them have much more evil in mind!  There is an interesting opinion article by Seymour Hersh on the subject. I think he is a liberal, but he does raise some interesting points although he relies on heavily anonymous sourcing.
Yes Seymour Hersh's article is very informative. I heard him talk this morning on Democracy Now.  What is missing in his analysis is what Iran's reaction to a boming strike might me.

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-11-21 10:54:25 4240
It's interesting how the Jerusalem Post picks up on what Seymour Hersh says and reworks it without  adding any new information ... or did they ... you tell me.  I'm still predicting that if this strike happens, it will come first from Israel. 
Some say that Iran is playing Israel so that, Iran having learned the lessons of Israel defending themselves from the Hezbollah rocket attcks, Israel will play the same game & get sucker punched by Iran & the world for over-kill thereby inviting Iran to call on all muslims to go for the final apocalyptic jihad.  

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-11-21 13:20:33 4240
Yeah, M, that sounds like Glen Beck's script.    Believing and fearing such a senario becomes self fulfiling ... like a crazy man wandering the streets shouting about the Apocalypse and finally jumping into suicide in stark fear.  But i predict that there will be smart politicians who don't buy into it ... maybe even ones who read NRO.  The clear path is to withdraw from the Bush doctrine, Israel to stop its opression of Palestine, and Eliminate All Nuclear Weapons ... even ours.  ... A win-win plan for the world ... or go for Victory .... go for we-win/they-loose ... and end up with Glen Beck's Apocalypse ... a nice big loose-loose for everybody.
Like I said on my other node 5044 :
Arguing who is right & who is wrong from the power & religious & social perspectives has proved fruitless so far (& will continue to be ad infinitum!) . Eliminating all nuclear weapons is silly. Try to convince China or Russia to do that. All that will happen will be that Iran will do , as you say, what it can to be part of the club so that they can give up something & stay in the club & demand some concessions from the others for being in the club.

Seth says
Yeah, M, that sounds like Glen Beck's script.    Believing and fearing such a senario becomes self fulfiling ... like a crazy man wandering the streets shouting about the Apocalypse and finally jumping into suicide in stark fear.  But i predict that there will be smart politicians who don't buy into it ... maybe even ones who read NRO.  The clear path is to withdraw from the Bush doctrine, Israel to stop its opression of Palestine, and Eliminate All Nuclear Weapons ... even ours.  ... A win-win plan for the world ... or go for Victory .... go for we-win/they-loose ... and end up with Glen Beck's Apocalypse ... a nice big loose-loose for everybody.

Seth says

source:ABC news Iran Cut off From Global Financial System

Iran was largely cut off from global commerce Thursday after the company that handles worldwide financial transactions said it was severing ties with many Iranian banks to back EU sanctions against Tehran.

The action by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT, aims to enforce European Union sanctions discouraging Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.
...


Mark de LA says
source: ...
One can only hope that Bush will not see a preemtive strike on Iran as part of the solution to his debacle in Iraq.

...
One could also hope that the recent "elections" in Iran which somewhat repudiated Ahmadinejad's daily war declarations against Israel, England, the USA & the West will decrease to only monthly tirades!
Ahmadinejad


Mark de LA says
One could also be concerned with the news on what Iran supposedly is doing:
  Iran Draws Up Plans to Bomb Israel
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070919/D8ROI5JO0.html 
and
  Zionist regime's allies to receive response on World Qods Day
http://www2.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-236/0709199796134418.htm

Seth says
Actually the story reads:  "plans have been drawn up to bomb Israel if the Jewish state attacks Iran" ... which is just self defense an not the agression that you have misrepresented above. 

Read the article in Salon: Why Bush won't attack Iran?  ... which, you will see, should better  be titled "Why Bush will attack Iran?".  The administration is really cranking up this war ... perhaps it is trying to change the dynamics of the electorate and get a Republican elected president ... or perhaps ensure that we are in a perpetual conflict with the Muslim world ... it's hard to imagine what they are thinking ... but it is time to kick these warmongers out of office before they do any more damage!

Seth says
M 2007-09-19 10:10:45 4240
Yep!  Good time to surrender to the Muslim Extremists right now ... [snip]
It's not a matter or "surrender", it's a matter of not attacking them!

Mark de LA says
The Iran-Syrian connection blows up in their faces with nerve gas!

Mark de LA says
Go here for more antidote to the KoolAid poisoning.


Seth says
M 2007-12-04 11:01:19 4240
Before you chug that last gulp of the KoolAid, you might ponder the fact that every nation including the U.S. that has developed a nuclear weapon has always done it in the darkness & in secret.

Well that's why our government spends big bucks on intelligence and intelligence analysis.  After the Iraq debacle, apparently the CIA is trying to finally get it right.  I'm glad that their well considered analysis doesn't justify your worst fears ... but i am sure that you will continue with them anyway, notwistanding the new report.

Mark de LA says
NIE provenance is here.


Seth says
source: The Story continues in the NYT
WASHINGTON, Dec. 5

Seth says
M 2007-12-05 07:25:25 4240
M 2007-12-05 07:01:14 4240
Go here for more antidote to the KoolAid poisoning.

Lots of wiggle words in the presumed actual report - read it all. I would still like to know how it got released & why.
Thanks for finding the "actual report".  But it doesn't give any more details that were not already in the NYT about the intelligence that the judgements were based upon. 

It's not inconcievable that both the intelligence community and the administration wanted it to get out.  I can see how making this public might even encourage Iran to become more open about what they are doing  with the intention to make their nuclear power program actually legit.  Bush then continues to play bad cop to the IAEA's good cop.  An alternate interpertation can be found in this Times article

Mark de LA says
source: ... That such a flawed product could emerge after a drawn-out bureaucratic struggle is extremely troubling. While the president and others argue that we need to maintain pressure on Iran, this "intelligence" torpedo has all but sunk those efforts, inadequate as they were. Ironically, the NIE opens the way for Iran to achieve its military nuclear ambitions in an essentially unmolested fashion, to the detriment of us all.
...John Bolton, former UN ambassador

Other similar sources:

Mark de LA says
 


Seth says
M 2008-01-07 07:41:22 4240
Is Iran provoking a fight now?  WHY?
source: ...  In one radio transmission, the Iranians told the U.S. Navy: "I am coming at you. You will explode in a couple of minutes," the U.S. military officials told CNN.
...
Note that it's the Republican Guard causing the trouble like they did last year in the shatt al arab waterway for the British.  What will be interesting is when they tell us what those white boxes were.

Jacko says
The sooner america goes to war with Iran the better, because thousands of gi's will be slaughtered and then maybe the usa will the get the message, get you nose the fuck out of other peoples business!

Mark de LA says
More grist for the mill:
Who's Behind the Proxy Wars

Mark de LA says



Mark de LA says
M 2008-05-26 15:40:47 4240
Apparently the IAEA doesn't think Iran is cooperating regarding their so-called peaceful development of nuclear technology. See this.
& apparently because the UN is letting Iran get away with it 13 other nations in the Middle East are beginning to do the same!


Seth says
source: Israeli minister
"If Iran continues its nuclear weapons programme, we will attack it," said Shaul Mofaz, who is also transportation minister.
This has also been sited as a primary cause of the spike in oil prices in the last couple of days. It comes on the heels of Obama's support of Israel at the AIPAc jewish conference.  Now Obama will be in a very tickelish position should Israel force a strike on Iran before November. Thing is Israel would need to do it before Obama takes office ... or probably not at all. That's just my assessment.  Let's see where the flow of history takes us.

Mark de LA says
Scary isn't it?  One wonders if the recent declaration by Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that it will continue with it's nuclear development & that talks with the US are undesirable has anything to do with it.  Like the lead up to Iraq War II, the world can back away with suitable inspections. Iran, like Iraq is stroking it's own pud to increase it's size. Ahmadinejad trash talks all the time about the end is near for Israel. Do you blame Israel for being a bit concerned? What's your solution O wise one?


Seth says
M 2008-05-26 16:16:43 4240
M 2008-05-26 15:40:47 4240
Apparently the IAEA doesn't think Iran is cooperating regarding their so-called peaceful development of nuclear technology. See this.
& apparently because the UN is letting Iran get away with it 13 other nations in the Middle East are beginning to do the same!

The IAEA report that the Iran is still not cooperating is probably the factual background of this latest threat.  I doubt that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's recent repetition of attitudes that have already been heard over and over again had any extra sway.

Mark de LA says
seth 2008-06-09 09:15:52 4240
source: M called attention to:
Thomas Sowell's very sobering article
However i cannot find much substance in it.  Here is a Jerusalem Post editorial that provides much more information and it is sobering indeed, though probably not for M's reasons. 
I get it that attacking Iran is not a good idea.  I am going to invoke 10284 in matters of war. The problem here is that too many other countries benefit from the conflict & are on Iran's side because of oil & nuclear business with Russia.  We who do not want war do not have enough like-minded countries to stop Iran who does want war to wipe out Israel (& see Allah). We need a critical mass.  It's like separating 2 combatants in a bar by swarming & overwhelming them.  We need an overwhelming citical mass starting from scratch. The UN is just a bunch of rich do nothing diplomats eating sumpsuous meals while talking about the problem of starving populations in Africa & elsewhere. Remember please the oil-for-food program, which if it had been flawless would have prevented the need for the Iraq war.

Mark de LA says
M 2008-05-26 16:16:43 4240
M 2008-05-26 15:40:47 4240
Apparently the IAEA doesn't think Iran is cooperating regarding their so-called peaceful development of nuclear technology. See this.
& apparently because the UN is letting Iran get away with it 13 other nations in the Middle East are beginning to do the same!

I thought that most of the other demands were from Amadenejad the ayatollah is new.

Seth says
source: M called attention to:
Thomas Sowell's very sobering article
However i cannot find much substance in it.  Here is a Jerusalem Post editorial that provides much more information and it is sobering indeed, though probably not for M's reasons. 

Mark de LA says
Headline news: girl scares Seth. Nothing here except a reaffirmation of one of Bush's doctrines (the first perhaps) ... In the war on terror if you are not with us you're against us! She knows who the good guys are!
It's the man-child Obama that scares me with his naivete & not knowing who the good guys are.


Mark de LA says
More Russian drums of war today.  That new President Medvedev seems to be scary IMHO. I think the Russians may have designs on Iran's oil.

Seth says
M 2008-09-26 07:30:03 4240
M 2008-09-26 07:16:56 4240
OTOH, the war may be closer, like with the Russians.


I don't see how these are directly related to the situation between Iran/Israel/Us.  Only perhaps tangentially in that Russia would probably support Iran ... in a global war.  What is good news is that it looks like in May, Bush stepped back from that war.  What might be interesting is to look for what else was going on around May this year.

Mark de LA says
It's all connected, Iran has become a client state of Russia. Georgia was a proxy war. Russia doesn't want our missles to protect against Iran's missle attacks on Israel. So it looks like she is doing a tit-for-tat.  Russia is rattling her sabres toward another cold or hot war while the US is weakening in the economic domain. Note how Iran is becoming nuclear & why sanctions & the UN don't work. Note how North Korea is restarting her nuclear reactors proving that talks with sick assholes & idiots don't work. ... & the beat goes on!


Seth says
seth 2008-09-26 05:00:54 4240
Update 09/26/2008:
source: MSNBC Report: Bush rejected Israeli strike on Iran

JERUSALEM - Israel gave serious thought earlier this year to a military strike on Iran's nuclear sites but was told by President Bush he would not support it, Britain's Guardian newspaper reported Friday.
The original source of this article is the Guardian with the headline Israel asked US for green light to bomb nuclear sites in Iran published on 9/25/2008.  Note that Bush did not hesitate to use his influence with Israel and "second guess" their measures of defense to avoid a larger calamity.  Unlike Sarah Palin who believes ...
source: Sarah Palin in interview with Katie Couric on CBS
"We don't have to second-guess what their efforts would be if they believe … that it is in their country and their allies, including us, all of our best interests to fight against a regime, especially Iran, who would seek to wipe them off the face of the earth. It is obvious to me who the good guys are in this one and who the bad guys are. The bad guys are the ones who say Israel is a stinking corpse and should be wiped off the face of the earth. That's not a good guy who is saying that. Now, one who would seek to protect the good guys in this, the leaders of Israel and her friends, her allies, including the United States, in my world, those are the good guys. "
... This girl scares me.

Mark de LA says

Mark de LA says
Apparently somebody thinks that Israel is drawing up plans to strike at Iran's nuclear sites. IMHO that becomes an error on their part even though Iran appears to be beligerant & Israel on the defense protecting itself with a preemptive strike.  Israel needs more Zen. They are producing a self-fulfilling prophecy & surely won't survive it even if they are successful in eradicating Iran's nukes.  A strike produces a counter strike.  Perhaps, this is just response to the recent news that Iran has enough nuclear material to make at least one bomb.


Seth says
M 2008-12-04 08:13:33 4240
Apparently somebody thinks that Israel is drawing up plans to strike at Iran's nuclear sites. IMHO that becomes an error on their part even though Iran appears to be beligerant & Israel on the defense protecting itself with a preemptive strike.  Israel needs more Zen. They are producing a self-fulfilling prophecy & surely won't survive it even if they are successful in eradicating Iran's nukes.  A strike produces a counter strike.  Perhaps, this is just response to the recent news that Iran has enough nuclear material to make at least one bomb.

Let us hope that this is just the IDF spinning its war-game scenarios as defense departments do.  Somebody has leaked it to the press to further their own agendas - prolly to run up the price of oil.  Recently there were rumors that Israel would strike after the election and before the inauguration - perhaps this "leak" can be pinned on those same rumor mongers. It goes without saying that Iran will not just sit idely by and accept military damage to their nuclear project without a serious conter-strike.  The article seems to imply that Israel could go it alone - well i would hate to be the grunt charged with drawing up such a plan - it certainly would be a fiction - any senario must at some point draw in the US - as we will certainly feel the consequences.  Would Israel fair better, in the long run, under the lame duck Bush, than Obama?  Is it true that Iran intends to make a bomb with its refined Uranium?   At some point Obama must convince not only Iran but also Israel that, consequences be damed, a Iranian nuclear bomb will simply not be permitted to actually be known to exist.  Hmmm ... that almost sounds like an easy piece ... i have faith that Obama can do it within 4 years, but i know that Bush cannot do it in 46 days. 

Mark de LA says
Well, W is retiring & is not likely to pursue any more than he already has through sanctions & the UN & the IAEA.  The people who need convincing, who always seem to vote private interests instead of for sanctions is Russia & China.



Seth says
Hopefully he won't get reelected.

Mark de LA says
Drums of Peace, who knows? God gave people an ego to look out for their own self-interest. In a World where Iran daily shouts death to Israel can you imagine why Israel might get fairly excited about them getting closer & closer to having an atom bomb? Their Ferengi leader, Ahmadinejad, recently declared Iran to be a nuclear nation. What do you suppose all that means?
 

Mark de LA says
Sounds like some drum beating in this article from the UK Times Online. Sounds like more than just war games - more like preparation (at least in this article).


Seth says
MR 2009-06-19 10:34:18 4240
OOPS!
NP, i suggest 3858 for tracking the North Korean drums.  But if you have a better item, that is fine too.  We can use the room history tracking to keep track of our keeping track.

Mark de LA says
I guess the question is beginning to be answered:
source: ...

The U.S. military is planning to intercept a flagged North Korean ship suspected of proliferating weapons material in violation of a U.N. Security Council resolution passed last Friday, FOX News has learned.

The USS John McCain, a navy destroyer, will intercept the ship Kang Nam as soon as it leaves the vicinity off the coast of China, according to a senior U.S. defense official. The order to inderdict has not been given yet, but the ship is getting into position.

The ship left a port in North Korea Wednesday and appears to be heading toward Singapore, according to a senior U.S. military source. The vessel, which the military has been tracking since its departure, could be carrying weaponry, missile parts or nuclear materials, a violation of U.N. Resolution 1874, which put sanctions in place against Pyongyang. 

...


Seth says
More saber rattling by Iran, Announces Successful Missile Test

Mark de LA says
These seem like a loud drumbeat to me: (especially the rejection of the Western nuclear proposal in which Ahmadinejad states
source: ...

"Our talks (with major powers) will only be in the framework of cooperation for managing global issues and nothing else. We have clearly announced this," Ahmadinejad said.

"The nuclear issue is a finished issue for us," he told a news conference.

...DRUDGE:



Iran sends six warships to international waters...

'Historically unprecedented'...


Ahmadinejad rejects Western nuclear proposal...

...wants to debate Obama at UN

Mark de LA says
Still MO' Drums:
source: ...

The U.S. military is tracking a flagged North Korean ship suspected of proliferating weapons material in violation of a U.N. Security Council resolution passed last Friday, FOX News has learned. 

The ship, Kang Nam, left a port in North Korea Wednesday and could be carrying weaponry, missile parts or nuclear materials. The U.S. military has been tracking it since its departure. 

"It is believed to be 'of interest,'" a senior U.S. official told FOX News. 

This is the first suspected "proliferator" that the U.S. and its allies have tracked from North Korea since the United Nations authorized the world's navies to enforce compliance with a variety of U.N. sanctions aimed at punishing North Korea for its recent nuclear test. 

North Korea, though, has said that any attempt to board its ships would be viewed as an act of war and promised "100- or 1,000-fold" retaliation if provoked. 

The Kang Nam is known to be a ship that has been involved in proliferation activities in the past -- it is "a repeat offender," according to one military source. 

...
to board or not to board... is it a dummy?Nobody else has the story yet.

Mark de LA says
Reprocessing spent fuel yields Plutonium.
Wikipedia: ... Nuclear reprocessing can separate spent fuel into various combinations of reprocessed uranium, plutonium, minor actinides, fission products, remnants of zirconium or steel cladding, activation products, and the reagents or solidifiers introduced in the reprocessing itself.
...that is what the Norks are doing.


Mark de LA says
MO' drums:
source: ... North Korea's massive stockpile of chemical weapons is as threatening as its nuclear program, analysts said Thursday, highlighting an aspect of the secretive regime's pursuit of weapons of mass destruction that is rarely talked about.
...(similar build up to Iraq war)


Seth says
source: MR above
...what could become very worrisome is if N. Korea (Norks) manage to export enough weaponized Plutonium to Iran in it's current bid to piss off the US.
I rather think the Plutonium would flow in other direction.  Iran has a much more aggressive refinement industry, than Korea.  Granted, they are not suppose to be refining it to weapon grade. But i take it that is just a matter of more passes through the centrifuges. 

What needs to happen is that they are allowed to refine Uranium for their nuclear power, but totally open themselves to inspection with no obstruction.  I know that is not going to be a popular choice with hard line conservatives, but it does meet the realities of the situation.  So Iran has the choice of joining the world community as a major middle east power or being an outcast with sustained sanctions.  I think that a majority of the Iranian people will want just that ... and i also think that Obama will offer it to them.  Ahmadinejad is basically a militarist and if he stays in power he will make this alternative very difficult.  He will move towards escalating tensions ending in a Israeli strike.  We of course must back up Israel if they strike. It is hard to predict where that will end.  

At least that's the way i read the script this June morning in 2009.

Mark de LA says
MR 2009-06-18 09:42:16 4240
source: ... Well, accidents will happen:

Iran's envoy to the UN atomic watchdog caused a buzz among journalists on Wednesday when he apparently misspoke and said his country had the right to a nuclear weapon.

After saying as usual that Iran was only pursuing nuclear energy for civilian purposes, Ali Asghar Soltanieh strayed alarmingly from the Islamic republic's usual line.

"The whole Iranian nation are united... on (the) inalienable right of (having a) nuclear weapon," the envoy to the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency said.


... follow the links documented in this Weekly Standard blog to get to the original articles - keeps the knee from twitching.


Wikipedia on Iran's Nuclear Program also mentions Soltanieh. Did he slip or speak what he himself believes?

Mark de LA says
seth 2009-06-18 08:44:50 4240
MR 2009-06-18 08:32:29 4240
The head of the IAEA says:
source: ...

The enrichment process can be configured to produce fuel either for nuclear power plants or weapons.

"(Iran) wants to send a message to its neighbors, it wants to send a message to the rest of the world: yes, don't mess with us, we can have nuclear weapons if we want it," said ElBaradei.

"But the ultimate aim of Iran, as I understand it, is that they want to be recognized as a major power in the Middle East and they are. "This is to them the road to get that recognition to power and prestige and ... an insurance policy against what they heard in the past about regime change, axis of evil."


... & of course on the other side of the World, today, Kim Ill is going to test his missiles in the direction of Hawaii. (mostly speculation, but one more notch ratcheting it up with louder drums)

So if ElBaradei's analysis is true, then Obama's direction of moving away from talk of "regime change and axis of evil" is certainly the right direction.
Nope! Your analysis is faulty.  Iran wants to be a big nuke power in the Middle East. Perhaps you noticed that they do not give a shit what the West thinks.
same article: ...

Ahmadinejad indicated on Sunday nuclear policy would not change in his second term since the issue "belongs in the past."


...what could become very worrisome is if N. Korea (Norks) manage to export enough weaponized Plutonium to Iran in it's current bid to piss off the US.

... & of course on the other side of the World, today, Kim Ill is going to test his missiles in the direction of Hawaii. (mostly speculation, but one more notch ratcheting it up with louder drums)

So if ElBaradei's analysis is true, then Obama's direction of moving away from talk of "regime change and axis of evil" is certainly the right direction.
Nope! Your analysis is faulty.  Iran wants to be a big nuke power in the Middle East. Perhaps you noticed that they do not give a shit what the West thinks.
same article: ...

Ahmadinejad indicated on Sunday nuclear policy would not change in his second term since the issue "belongs in the past."


...what could become very worrisome is if N. Korea (Norks) manage to export enough weaponized Plutonium to Iran in it's current bid to piss off the US.


Seth says
MR 2009-06-18 08:32:29 4240
The head of the IAEA says:
source: ...

The enrichment process can be configured to produce fuel either for nuclear power plants or weapons.

"(Iran) wants to send a message to its neighbors, it wants to send a message to the rest of the world: yes, don't mess with us, we can have nuclear weapons if we want it," said ElBaradei.

"But the ultimate aim of Iran, as I understand it, is that they want to be recognized as a major power in the Middle East and they are. "This is to them the road to get that recognition to power and prestige and ... an insurance policy against what they heard in the past about regime change, axis of evil."


... & of course on the other side of the World, today, Kim Ill is going to test his missiles in the direction of Hawaii. (mostly speculation, but one more notch ratcheting it up with louder drums)

So if ElBaradei's analysis is true, then Obama's direction of moving away from talk of "regime change and axis of evil" is certainly the right direction.

Mark de LA says
If you are looking for regime change by election in Iran, be careful what you wish for.
source: ...In 1981, when Mousavi first appeared, UPI explained that "Appearances aside, Mousavi heralds a more vigorous propagation of the radical Islamic foreign policy of exporting Iran's revolution." In 1987, Reuters quoted Mousavi at a demonstration in Tehran saying "Tomorrow will be the day we step on the Great Satan. Tomorrow is the time for America to see our iron fists." And in 1989, after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini, the Washington Post described Mousavi as "a leading radical who in the past has competed with Khamenei for primacy in setting government policy pledged subservience, along with his entire cabinet, to the new leader." 
...etc.  read the whole blog for more. The alternative to Ahmadinejad may be worse.



Mark de LA says
WSJ: ...

Events are fast pushing Israel toward a pre-emptive military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, probably by next spring. That strike could well fail. Or it could succeed at the price of oil at $300 a barrel, a Middle East war, and American servicemen caught in between. So why is the Obama administration doing everything it can to speed the war process along?

At July's G-8 summit in Italy, Iran was given a September deadline to start negotiations over its nuclear programs. Last week, Iran gave its answer: No.

~~

That impression is strengthened by Mr. Obama's decision to drop Iran from the agenda when he chairs a meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Sept. 24; by Defense Secretary Robert Gates publicly opposing military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities; and by Russia's announcement that it will not support any further sanctions on Iran.

...Just what do you think BHO is going to do at the UN talks on nuclear proliferation except perhaps unilaterally disarm ours?



Mark de LA says
And in spite of Iran's proclaiming it is going to develop more nuclear fuel processing locationswhat do you folks think the disclosure of their working on a nuclear bomb trigger will cause in the way of sanctions or world pressure? Is this the final nail? Some say that Obama's Nobel speech could be considered as the Obama doctrine in such matters. Another view hopes for change.
<== go hug your atomic mushrooms!

Seth says
As of 8:24 Monday, Google World news has not registered  this story - no news front, but i'm sure you can get there if you search for it. 

source: But memeorandum has a news front
Catherine Philp / Times of London:
Secret document exposes Iran's nuclear trigger  —  Confidential intelligence documents obtained by The Times show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.  —  The notes, from Iran's most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test …
&amp;amp;amp;lt;!-- cts('http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6955351.ece'); --&amp;amp;amp;gt;
Fox World news hasn't reported it yet, but of course Matt Drudge picked it up.  No special report yet from main stream broadcasting or notification from CNN or Washing Post in my emails. 

But, thanks M for notifying me, i haven't been paying much attention to this shit lately.  Been working hard trying to get tagtalking.net/test up.


Mark de LA says
Is Iran forecasting a stike on the US?
source: ...

"The Iranian nation, with its unity and God's grace, will punch the arrogance (Western powers) on the 22nd of Bahman (February 11) in a way that will leave them stunned," Khamenei, who is also Iran's commander-in-chief, told a gathering of air force personnel.


... How's that talking to Ahmadinejad & the terrorists going for you, Obama ?


Mark de LA says
maybe someone should send this cartoon to Obama:


Seth says
Please note that this item is not about Obama.

C says
seth 2010-02-08 14:55:38 4240
Please note that this item is not about Obama.
Right!, sorry- Obama promised but has no influence on Iran & their drums of war & continuous sabre rattling.


C says
The drums are beating again with Israel intercepting & inspecting shipments to Gaza, presumably humanitarian aid, but coming from questionable sources. Here is the latest kicker:

Without a inspections how does Israel protect itself? OTOH, without weapons how does Hamas remain in control of Gaza?
.... the beat goes on .....

C says
An interesting analysis of the strategy of sanctions vs a 3-pronged approach yields this:
WaPo: ... Many who condemned the Bush administration's lack of transparency before the invasion of Iraq today discourage public discussion of military options concerning Iran. But we cannot afford to shirk this debate or dismiss it as warmongering; it is precisely a public recognition of a viable military option that could preclude its need
... it is worth considering unless you are one that likes the idea that Iran may have nukes by the end of the year. Personally, I prefer regime change in view of 14034 & others.



Mark de LA says
Thanks a lot to our pals the Russians: ( )we have in news this weekend:
I hope we are still laughing about it in a year or two. 

Mark de LA says
(***)
Apparently now Iran no longer fears the US &, imho,  is agitating for a fight. See this article about their intent to send warships within range of our coastlines:
CNN:: ...  Iran plans to send ships near the Atlantic coast of the United States, state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported Tuesday, quoting a commander.

"The Navy of the Iranian Army will have a powerful presence near the United States borders," read the headline of the story, in Farsi.

"Commander of the Navy of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran broke the news about the plans for the presence of this force in the Atlantic Ocean and said that the same way that the world arrogant power is present near our marine borders, we, with the help of our sailors who follow the concept of the supreme jurisprudence, shall also establish a powerful presence near the marine borders of the United States," the story said. The reference to the "world arrogant power" was presumably intended to refer to the United States.

... Somehow, current politics of the US regime notwithstanding, I would vote that Iran is the most arrogant power in the World right now.
The question in my mind is do we have a president like JFK who can turn them back, like in the Cuban Missle Crisis, of days gone bye?  My preference would be to make them all disappear without a trace & when Iran complains ask "What Ships?".

Mark de LA says
seth 2011-09-28 16:13:54 4240
source: M above
My preference would be to make them all disappear without a trace & when Iran complains ask "What Ships?"
don't you think that just a tad bit of an over reaction?  
Maybe, maybe not.  It would be amusing though.







Seth says
M 2011-12-08 09:36:32 4240
seth 2011-12-08 09:12:01 4240
M 2011-12-07 22:59:10 4240
Surveillance inside Iran with our most high tech drones losing one in the process? WTF. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/08/world/middleeast/drone-crash-in-iran-reveals-secret-us-surveillance-bid.html?_r=1&hp

If these drones can fly undetected they are a great new weapon ... both offensive and for surveillance.  I think i said that before.  The battlefield is moving from manned to high-tech automation ... is becoming a war of technology.   What is interesting is that the last time this happened, the Chinese swarmed in and bought the lost parts and some of our technology ended up in their weapons.  I think this war is, and has been, happening out of the control of the politicians ... it is the continuation of age old weapons evolution.
.... & we lost the stealth helicopter tail assembly getting Bin Laden in Pakistan. Of course, we will be making less of these while we disarm the defense department. (;-
The weapons don't just build themselves or evolve on their own.  Congress still has the power of the purse - corrupt though the process is.

Iran is saying that they "electronically hijacked the drone and steered it to the ground" ... watch their video.


Even if Congress intended to stop the arms race, which they overwhelmingly do not, i doubt that they could.  That would be something that would need of the changing the nature of society ... not so very easy to legislate that kind of thing. Who knows, perhaps if Ron Paul could get elected, we would move in that direction. 

Mark de LA says
FROM DRUDGE THIS MORNING.  I WONDER WHO HELPED IRAN HACK THE DRONE & WHY OBAMA DID'NT BOMB IT WHEN IT WAS OUT IN THE OPEN?

If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure'...
Iran lodges complaint with Interpol over U.S. 'assassination threats'...



WAR GAMES: IRAN TO CLOSE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Seth says
Ahmadinejad wants the West to believe Iran hacked the drone and brought it down.  Who knows if that is what happened or not.  Thing is, if they did that, then it may have been over Afghanistan and not even in their air space.  These guys are know to make up shit.  In any case i'm sure the defense industry is scurrying around putting in more encryption and security. 

If Iran closes the straits, even for an hour, i think that will be a act of war.  Sadly this is another case of "what are these ass holes thinking" ... and all the ass holes are not in Iran ... luckily one of the ass holes is not named Obama.

Mark de LA says
Still doesn't explain why something with such military secrets wasn't booby-trapped or why such secrets were deployed where they could be lost &/or captured without some failsafe self-neutering capability. There are probably elements of the administration that relish giving parity to the enemy in the disgusting theory that will prevent war!


Mark de LA says
Continued sabre rattling over the holidays while Obama vacations :
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/29/world/meast/iran-strait-hormuz-explainer/index.html?hpt=hp_c1
source: ... (CNN) -- Iran's vice president has warned that the country could block the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions are imposed on its exports of crude oil. What does the threat mean and what is likely to happen next?
...
BTW, imho & in my naval science classes a blockade is considered an act of war.  It was essentially the act of war that started the civil war with the North blockading the South: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_blockade
.... they should find other ways of sanctioning Iran.  Nobody has said they are going to blockade Iran yet. Hence mostly sabre rattling.



Seth says
Well things are shaping up for a complex arrangement or a perfect storm here ... hawks/doves ... fear of nukes/fear of oil ... jews/muslims ... suni/shia ... the triggered cuts to military/deficit ... all going to be taking place in the election year.  Twill be quite a distraction from our individual lives ... lots of big screen drama.  OMFG !


Seth says
Hopefully Obama will say nothing publicly, ignoring warring words puts them in their place.  When the Stennis moves back into the gulf, i suspect Iran's words will be shown to be hollow ... only effect being on the price of oil which ran up to $102/barrel this morning. 

Mark de LA says
seth 2012-01-09 10:49:27 4240
source: my way news
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran has begun uranium enrichment at a new underground site built to withstand possible airstrikes, a leading hard-line newspaper reported Sunday in another show of defiance against Western pressure to rein in Tehran's nuclear program.
...
Iran has no problem lying to infidels!

Seth says
source: my way news
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran has begun uranium enrichment at a new underground site built to withstand possible airstrikes, a leading hard-line newspaper reported Sunday in another show of defiance against Western pressure to rein in Tehran's nuclear program.
...

Seth says
source: nyt
The Obama administration is relying on a secret channel of communication to warn Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a “red line” that would provoke an American response, according to United States government officials.
...

C says
seth 2012-01-13 11:43:15 4240
source: nyt
The Obama administration is relying on a secret channel of communication to warn Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a “red line” that would provoke an American response, according to United States government officials.
...
tee hee hee ... on that "secret channel" via NYTimes. Release a deniable secret channel communication into the public is just another move on the chessboard. Hope it works, though.



Seth says
source: Iran definitely closing Strait of Hormuz over EU oil embargo [emphaiss mine]
... a senior Iranian official said Iran would “definitely” close the Strait of Hormuz if an EU oil embargo disrupted the export of crude oil.
I'ts is interesting to note the change of the text of the threat from the title of the article to bet body of the article ... also from the last time we heard the threat.  In other words, from my interpretation, Iran is backing off their threat a bit ... apparently Europe is not going to buy any more Iranian oil ... but that does not mean that it will "disrupt the export of crude" from Iran.

Mark de LA says
Iran ups the ante a bit (?):
source: ...
That plot “shows that some Iranian officials — probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived U.S. actions that threaten the regime,” Clapper said in the testimony, which was submitted to the Senate Intelligence Committee in advance of a threat assessment hearing Tuesday. “We are also concerned about Iranian plotting against U.S. or allied interests overseas.”
... Apparently this is mostly Senate Testimony (US Imagination) rather than Iran rattling sabres this time. The idea that US soil might be involved rather than Israel is somewhat unsettling but may be calculus of the administration or DHS for popular support for something as yet unknown in the future.



Seth says
seth 2012-01-31 14:57:27 4240
MR 2012-01-31 14:47:59 4240
If Obama & Clinton can find some way to have Iran save face & to a lesser extent the USA also & have oil not escalate - perhaps dropping in price he might win the election. The challenge is that he is not even believed in this country for most of what he says.
I tend to believe more what Obama says than what the other side says ... so obviously you have just expressed your partisan opinion ... as have i.

But, how about this ... Iran will be playing a "You can't hurt us" game  here ... read this report.  That does help us, and them, avoid a war.  I just wonder if that game can be played all the way to the end of the year.
Here is another report that bears on the last i linked to.   Obviously the political situation and internal economy in Iran are playing on the board.  I'd look for a analysis piece about that ... and not one written by a right wing Israeli.

Mark de LA says
I just enjoy the diplomatic & undiplomatic game of chess going on here including the side games in the administration & in elections & in your mind.

Your Move!

Seth says
MR 2012-01-31 14:10:53 4240
seth 2012-01-31 14:08:41 4240
Ian ups the anti ... NOT!  As you observe this is just testimony in the US senate by the Director of National Intelligence ... and apparently the speculation is based upon last year's failed attack on the Saudi ambassador ...
source: Director of National Intelligence
That plot “shows that some Iranian officials " probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei " have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived U.S. actions that threaten the regime,”
That plot does not show anything of the sort to me, especially since most analysts say the Supreme Leader was not even aware of it.   So, no, that, imho, does not justify your question "Iran ups the ante a bit (?)" ... but, yes, it is all part of the drums of war.  Get people scared.   Me, if i were you, i would listen very carefully for the downbeat ... like  for example: Iran inviting the IAEA back for a look at their underground bunkers.  Now, personally, i believe that Iran is trying to develop a bomb ... or perhaps more likely is profiting by threatening to do so ... but are they and the West going to back away from the brink?  I sure hope so ... don't think it pays anybody go go to war over this.  I just said that to say ... I listen for peace ... i don't listen for war.
I don't listen to liars - especially ones that declare to the World they want to wipe US & Israel off the map! 

It's not the Iranians that one needs to listen to ... yes they cannot be trusted ... not to mention that their interests seem to be 180 degrees from ours.   

Me, i would think that this is more the kind of thing to listen to.  Both adversaries are playing here with double edged swords.  Don't watch Israel and don't watch the bomb ... watch the oil.  I keep wondering if Obama will come to a point where the decision on one hand is go to war with Iran and pay $10/gal for gas ... or on the other hand not to go to war and still pay $10/ gal.  $10/gal probably implies Obama will loose the election.  So, me thinks the trick is not to let it come to that ... which trick also keeps us out of a war. 


Mark de LA says
It seems pretty clear where this ayatollah stands on Israel:
source:

The Iranian government, through a website proxy, has laid out the legal and religious justification for the destruction of Israel and the slaughter of its people.

The doctrine includes wiping out Israeli assets and Jewish people worldwide.

Calling Israel a danger to Islam, the conservative website Alef, with ties to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said the opportunity must not be lost to remove “this corrupting material. It is a ‘jurisprudential justification” to kill all the Jews and annihilate Israel, and in that, the Islamic government of Iran must take the helm.”

& Because Israel is going to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran is justified in launching a pre-emptive, cataclysmic attack against the Jewish state, the doctrine argues.
... Seems like that is the same reason that Israel might attack Iran who previously & many times has said it will wipe Israel off the face of the map.



Mark de LA says
US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely: ...

Officials in key parts of the Obama administration are increasingly convinced that sanctions will not deter Tehran from pursuing its nuclear programme, and believe that the US will be left with no option but to launch an attack on Iran or watch Israel do so.

The president has made clear in public, and in private to Israel, that he is determined to give sufficient time for recent measures, such as the financial blockade and the looming European oil embargo, to bite deeper into Iran's already battered economy before retreating from its principal strategy to pressure Tehran.

... Hmmmm..... & Iran sends 'message of peace and friendship'...

Dispatches warships back to Mediterranean...
(tee hee hee on that drudge headline pair)  & Syria heats up with: REPORT: US sends in drones... (What was that song ... Send in the Clowns ? Syria being a Tehran puppet/proxy makes this not off topic.
P.S. the song is about the World losing it's sanity IMHO!


Mark de LA says
The machinations in the headlines on Iran remind me of the final scene in Dr. Strangelove:
 & the song:

Mark de LA says
more sabre rattling & no real inspections?
source: ...

Iran said it would it would “act without waiting” with regards to protecting its national interests that may be threatened by foreign countries, Reuters reported.

The report said Mohammad Hejazi, the deputy head of the Islamic Republic’s armed forces, told the country’s semi-official news agency news to the country’s pre-emptive stance.



Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/02/21/iran-says-un-nuke-inspectors-will-not-visit-sites/#ixzz1n2SW91re
...


Mark de LA says
& more Drudge:
IRAN: 'Ready to wipe Israel off map'...

UN sees spike in Tehran's uranium production...

NYT: US spies see no evidence of bomb... (naturally for the NYT - I suspect that the first evidence will be a mushroom cloud over TelAviv or NYC) - still unclear if there is no evidence why Teheran doesn't allow inspections. Is she as stupid as Saddam Hussein wanting to pretend to the world that he had them. What strategy is operative here?




Mark de LA says
Personally, I am curious as to whether the US ever threatened another country or people with the use of atomic weapons. Merely having used them twice during war that seemed like enough. I don't think we did even during the Cuban Missle Crisis. That could perhaps prove a point. If you have them you don't make idle threats because you know what the outcome would be. If you don't you are free to bluster & threaten.
... just thinking out loud.


Mark de LA says
M 2012-03-03 13:01:30 4240
More Drudge - some say Netanyahu wants Obama to threaten force:
..
Personally I do want to see what Obama does that is not war & achieves the objective that Iran does NOT get the bomb - it's still a dangerous chess game.
And election results:

Fundamentalists gain in Iran...

Seth says
Re: 6 B.S. Myths ...

M 2012-03-05 07:36:48 15851
M 2012-03-05 07:17:36 15851
Point #6 of Hill's BS seens to fade with this in the recent news: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d7620ab4-6532-11e1-9c8a-00144feab7de.html#axzz1oFqEfEo6
~
My point was a valid as yours.  If none of this is anything to worry about (not that worrying does any good or bad) - then let the good times roll & ignore the threats even if Obama is concerned about them.



Well i agree, worrying is a waste of time.  My question is whether to add my voice to the mob crying for war, or the one cautioning against it.  To that question, my answer is a resounding: "Give peace a chance" !   I can only hope that, under a sober leadership, a complete understanding of the divisions in Iran and how the messages spoken by POTUS can affect an Iranian decisions will emerge ... obviously flower power will do nothing. 

In breaking news this morning, the president said to Netanyahu that "We have your back" ... presenting a unified front against Iran and perhaps putting more pressure on Iran to move in the right direction under threat that Israel will strike them and be backed up with the might of the US military.  But what Netanyahu said in response was actually more interesting: "Israel must reserve the right to defend itself and after all, that's the very purpose of the Jewish state, to restore to the Jewish people control over our destiny, [bold emphasis mine]" .... in other words, watch our Iran, you have but a short time to back off the bomb.  It will be interesting to see if those messages and emphasis will change after their meeting. 

Mark de LA says
We all three agree then: You, John Lennon & I "Give Peace a Chance" - my original comment:
Flower Power is an attitude (& a being) - quite a bit more artistic than todays shitting occupiers.

Mark de LA says
Lest you think the US has no contingency plans:
Source: ...

The Pentagon’s senior policy official, who until recently took part in detailed war planning, said on Tuesday that U.S. military strike plans for Iranian nuclear facilities are very advanced and ready for use.

Michele Flournoy, who last month stepped down as undersecretary of defense for policy, also said the Obama administration is opposed to using force now because of worries that Iran will redouble its nuclear arms work, increase the secrecy of its program, and use proxy terrorists in the region to attack Americans.

“The United States military has very developed contingency plans for just about everything imaginable, including this scenario,” Flournoy said during her first public remarks since leaving the Pentagon. “And those plans are there, they exist, they are ready.”

...


Seth says

source: harretz.com today
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested the United States approve the sale of advanced refueling aircraft as well as GBU-28 bunker-piercing bombs to Israel during a recent meeting with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, a top U.S. official said on Tuesday.

The American official said that U.S. President Barack Obama instructed Panetta to work directly with Defense Minister Ehud Barak on the matter, indicating that the U.S. administration was inclined to look favorably upon the request as soon as possible.
... I guess that puts some credence in Obama's words: "We got your back!"  and "Speak softly and carry a big stick!".


Mark de LA says
I'm not sure what this is but I'm curious why the Iraq experience to hide their WMD programs didn't serve as a poor example of deception.

Satellite images of an Iranian military facility appear to show trucks and earth-moving vehicles at the site, indicating an attempted cleanup radioactive traces possibly left by tests of a nuclear-weapon trigger, diplomats told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

Two of the diplomats said the crews may be trying to erase evidence of tests of a small experimental neutron device used to set off a nuclear explosion. A third diplomat could not confirm that but said any attempt to trigger a so-called neutron initiator at the Parchin site could only be in the context of trying to develop nuclear arms.

The images, provided to the IAEA by member countries, are recent and constantly updated, said one of the diplomats.

The diplomats are nuclear experts accredited to the International Atomic Energy Agency. All asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive information



Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/03/07/iran-reportedly-cleaning-up-nuclear-work/?test=latestnews#ixzz1oTtLr3Oh
...


Mark de LA says
source: ... TV report: Netanyahu holding elections so he is free to deal with Iran in September-October 

In the interview Friday with the Israel Hayom daily, Barak recalled a speech given in 2003 by the then-Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who, said Barak, spoke of Israel as being “so small and vulnerable that it is a ‘one-bomb’ nation.

“If one bomb were dropped on it, this nation would not return to its former glory,” Barak quoted Rafsanjani as saying. “After the exchange of blows, Rafsanjani said, Islam would remain and Israel would not remain as it was. He also noted that there need not be any clear markers on the bomb as to where it came from. It could be transported in a shipping container that arrives at some port and simply explodes.”

I wonder if Obama makes any counter moves on the chess board


Mark de LA says
My question is given the RWG & the polarity between the theocratic, supressive state of Iran how do Israel, the West & Iran compromise to avoid a war? All you liberals who believe in compromise what is your plan?  Ron Paul, I think, said "Ignore it, let them have the bomb" ... in so many words.  No leverage has worked so far & it appears that Russia & China are on Iran's side by their actions.


Mark de LA says
Whoever invents the words that Ahmadinejad speaks is a master of memes & threats:
it could be the headline writers here, but the words seem to be the same no matter who writes the stories.  Whether they are backed up by anything is another question.
In this country we have our own - Farrakhan:



Mark de LA says
Fascinating tale in the WAPo - a tale of spying, intrigue etc.  Probably writing a book after & if she clears her name. Stirring up a war with Iran?
I am suspicious of any article which uses the word neocon. That word is used by liberals like the n-word is used by racists imho. You can do a google Gwenyth Todd & get a lot more stuff.


Mark de LA says
Looks like the empty suit/empty chair Obama has chosen sides: or maybe he is scared about Iran's continued war posture.


Iran to hold massive air defense drill in October...
LOOKS LIKE THOSE SANCTIONS ARE REALLY WORKING FOR THE PEACE PRIZE WINNER, EH?
... CONTINUED WORK ON SECURE NUKE SITES BY IRAN
-
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/31/world/middleeast/nuclear-inspectors-confirm-iranian-progress.html?_r=1&hp

Mark de LA says
MR 2009-04-17 19:35:00 4240
Sounds like some drum beating in this article from the UK Times Online. Sounds like more than just war games - more like preparation (at least in this article).

Note the dates.  The "annual" exercises shifts around according to the show of force desired for the politics of the moment.  Such things are political & have happened many times in history. Sorry the link above was not permanent, but I remember it as just about the same things mentioned in the current article.  The idea of "just normal exercises" gives diplomatic cover. 
With all the Arab Fall & stuff happening in the Middle East, where is the UN? Our president went to Vegas to raise more funds.
 

Seth says
January 4, 2012 Iran Warns US against Sending Back Aircraft Carrier to Persian Gulf

TEHRAN (FNA)- Iran's top Army Commander Major General Ataollah Salehi on Tuesday warned the US to avoid sending back its aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf
 
source: September 17 1912  U.S. Navy Sends Stennis Strike Group back to Persian Gulf

When the USS John C. Stennis reaches the Persian Gulf, which is scheduled to be in one month’s time, they will join the USS Enterprise Strike Group, giving the United States military a significant presence in the region amid concerns of a conflict between Israel and Iran, which could provoke Iranian responses that would attempt to disrupt commercial shipping lanes in the area.

... perhaps to take part in exercises.


Mark de LA says
Netanyahu warns Tehran only months away from nuke weapon fuel...

Makes His Case...
--------------------------
Iran seems to be one of the few countries that has been bellicose toward another country (Israel) for so long & yet continues to refine uranium & has backing of Russia & China.  What does she expect?  Maybe she thinks this is her best shot time-wise. The United Nations has no teeth.  The US has teeth for a while,  but may be afraid to use them. 
->  ???


Seth says
M 2012-09-16 23:54:54 4240
Netanyahu warns Tehran only months away from nuke weapon fuel...

Makes His Case...
--------------------------
Iran seems to be one of the few countries that has been bellicose toward another country (Israel) for so long & yet continues to refine uranium & has backing of Russia & China.  What does she expect?  Maybe she thinks this is her best shot time-wise. The United Nations has no teeth.  The US has teeth for a while,  but may be afraid to use them. 
->  ???


I noticed that Netanyahu did not point to, or even hint at, any new intelligence to back up his claim ... and that he said substantially the same thing in 1992.  How much of this panic about a red line real? ... how much of it is made up ... to coincide with other current political events in Israel and US ?

Mark de LA says
seth 2012-09-17 13:58:23 4240
M 2012-09-16 23:54:54 4240
Netanyahu warns Tehran only months away from nuke weapon fuel...

Makes His Case...
--------------------------
Iran seems to be one of the few countries that has been bellicose toward another country (Israel) for so long & yet continues to refine uranium & has backing of Russia & China.  What does she expect?  Maybe she thinks this is her best shot time-wise. The United Nations has no teeth.  The US has teeth for a while,  but may be afraid to use them. 
->  ???


I noticed that Netanyahu did not point to, or even hint at, any new intelligence to back up his claim ... and that he said substantially the same thing in 1992.  How much of this panic about a red line real? ... how much of it is made up ... to coincide with other current political events in Israel and US ?
Yep, but the UN Nuclear inspectors etc have been kicked out since then etc.  Intelligence is something you keep close to the vest because it also exposes how you know something & who might be collaborating with the enemy.  I like this headline better: http://www.myfoxdc.com/story/19561388/iran-atomic-chief-says-explosives-cut-power-at-facility - at least something is being done besides ass kissing.


Seth says
Bibi draws his red line ...


so his time frame is ... "in the spring or summer of 2013"

Mark de LA says
Cooler heads prevail.  An interesting distinction of Strategic Ambiguity comes from Rand Paul:
What can make it work even stronger in a Teddy Roosevelt kind of way of speaking softly & carrying a big stick is to make the stick real enough for the opposition to believe it.  The current regime is doing it's best to throw the stick away.

(*)

Mark de LA says
... & the regime in Iran is laughing at the World instead. Corruption in World will for oil & commerce prevails with Russia, China, N. Korea, Venezuela & the like.



Seth says
I guess those under the cover conversations between ? & ? on nuclear stuff didn't work very well - maybe Iran's client state Syria was just a ruse or maybe Iran tested Obama's resolve & found it to be a pink line with purple polka dots.  Iran is also a client state of Russia who helped build the sites so maybe even the chemweapons of Syria not a biggie.


Seth says
Y: ...

Iran's Revolutionary Guards committed to



 'Death to America'

In light of negotiations with US, conservative groups in Iran call for continued use of 'Death to America' as official slogan, celebrate anniversary of US Embassy hostage crisis

... new tone working with the Kerry-Obama axis, eh?

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