140 years of OIL left

About: bostonherald.com - international news: world has tapped just 18 percent of global oil supplies, saudi executive says

Maybe with the price of gasoline in Iowa comes this bit of bad news (for some) - until Seth pours concrete into the Middle Eastern oil wells. See 4222 for a laugh

... ALSO

Analyst predicts plunge in gas prices

source: ... WASHINGTON " The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil could mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline prices to lows not seen since the late 1990s " perhaps as low as $1.15 a gallon.

...

Let's use the easing (lull) in oil prices to find something else to use for USA energy.

Comments

Seth says

Well i doubt that anyone needs to worry about Israel or US pouring concrete down oil wells to thwart radical Iranian militants growing influence in the ME, even though that would drive up the price of oil and provide a practical motive to "find something else to use for USA energy".

But what might militate against a continuing drop in oil prices might be Al-Qaida making good on its recent threat ... [emphasis mine]

source: Ayman al-Zawahiri

"You shouldn't bother yourselves with defending your forces in Iraq and Afghanistan because they are doomed to defeat and are all but defeated, fighting their last battles, Rather, you should reinforce your defences in two regions. The first is the Gulf, from where you will be expelled, God willing, ...

Mark de LA says

seth 2006-09-14 07:47:11 4405
- snip -

I don't take alqueda's word for anything! Most of it is unreliable threats to foster more fear & terror. That's why some call them terrorists!

Mark de LA says
In other good news here:

WHIFF OF BANKRUPTCY JOLTS AIR AMERICA

Seth says

M 2006-09-14 08:16:18 4405

I don't take alqueda's word for anything! Most of it is unreliable threats to foster more fear & terror.

Well i have not been trackin their "word" vs "their actions" over time. It would be informative to find someone who has. We do know of at least one famous threat where their word was reliable. Of course that was before their command and control got demolished. In any case i suspect that the Gulf states have beefed up their vigilance ... i mean after all, if i could catch the Al-Qaeda message so easily, i doubt that terrorists cells would have missed it.

Mark de LA says

seth 2006-09-14 08:34:50 4405

- snip -

Well i have not been trackin their "word" vs "their actions" over time. It would be informative to find someone who has.
-snip-

What must be going thru the mind of the person who wrote this ? Suppose alqueda had a 51% rating - should we trust them ?
P.S. I suspect Homeland Security knows.

Seth says

Actually this has got me shaking in my boots. I made a $20 bet with Denise that oil prices would never drop below $2 as measured by actual gas stations in Renton Washington. Now i'm looking for some way to hedge my bet.

Seth says

M 2006-09-14 08:51:54 4405

Suppose alqueda had a 51% rating - should we trust them ?

Well if over time they successfully carried out 51% of their threats, then their threats are 51% reliable. One could say that we trust their word 51% of the time when it is threatening. That would have very little if any bearing on whether we should trust their word if it was not threatening. Off the top of my head i don't remember anything that they have ever said that did not sound threatening, so personally i have zero trust of them in that area. Does that clarify what i said?

Mark de LA says

seth 2006-09-14 09:03:25 4405

-snip-

Does that clarify what i said?

I guess. I go back to my original statement - no study required!

source: I don't take alqueda's word for anything!

... they are terrorists! - that's all I need to know!

Seth says

M 2006-09-14 09:09:07 4405

... they are terrorists! - that's all I need to know!

Well i read the news and study it to glean knowledge to be used for predictions. The predictions validate the knowledge. Otherwise my reading and the studying would not be sufficiently motivated and my curiousity would be academic and solely voyeuristic. For example, if i hear of a explosion of some oil facility in Kuwit, Saudia Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, or Quitar, i will not be surprised. Were i to have some spare capital, some knowledge of futures trading, and the knowledge of Al-Qaeda threat reliablity, i might be able to make a profitable trade ... after all the price is way down now ... time to buy.

Mark de LA says
Here are some others you might go for. I know there are sites that trade in such. See: this link. Or perhaps just google newsfutures.

Seth says
There is another dynamic that might inform the timing of jumps in the price of oil in the next 12 months ... and that is the result of the US midterm election. Will the democrats gain control of Congress or not. What would Al-Qaeda prefer: democrats or republicans? Well i'm not gonna call that yet ... but it certainly is a interesting question to answer. But lets go down both legs: (1) Al-Qaeda prefers democrats: then they will strike after the election, (2) Al-Qaeda prefers republicans: then they will strike before the election because raising the terror level will favor republicans. Now doesn't that give a bit of guidance in our study of the news?

Mark de LA says
There is something in that, but I think that alqueda is smart enough to wait for the 2008 election & wait for a democrat president who is more likely to respond like a clinton (maybe even a clinton) than a bush.

Seth says
Some analysis of oil futures: Oil correction looks overdone.

Seth says

M 2006-09-14 10:24:04 4405

There is something in that, but I think that alqueda is smart enough to wait for the 2008 election & wait for a democrat president who is more likely to respond like a clinton (maybe even a clinton) than a bush.

Well waiting 2 years might be asking too much. Also i suspect that Al-Qaeda my not even have sufficient command-control abilities left to actually time such a strike. Which means that were the event to occur, it would probably be timed by individual cells. I don't even know what a retalitory stike against Al-Quada might look like ... would the strike be in Pakistan? It is not clear that Al-Quada or their allies would even be afraid of such a stike any more, whether launched in a democratic or a republican manner . But i am quite beyond my predictive abilities here ... i need more knowledge to get any closer.

Mark de LA says

seth 2006-09-15 11:55:21 4405

M 2006-09-15 11:28:04 4405

I guess as far as Iowa goes - Seth looses the bet on oil below $2. See the prices of gas in Iowa <== here.

The bet was explicitidly for the actual event of me observing a price in a Renton area gas station. If you find any, let me know and i will go look.

Well you folks may have more additives or restrictions for environmental bs. You are safe for now!

Mark de LA says
I guess as far as Iowa goes - Seth looses the bet on oil below $2. See the prices of gas in Iowa <== here.

Seth says

seth 2006-09-14 09:39:19 4405

I think that Yemen is close enough to vindicate my prediction.

Seth says
People are continually making claims of Bush's manipulation of the American voter. I think we should take most of those claims with a grain of salt. Below i report on a claim that i myslef suspected was the case but had not heard anyone else talk about it ... until now. Me thinksl, even though it makes a lot of sense, that we should be very skeptical of this purported scheme. However this one, has made a prediction ... if the prediction is vindicated, does it not lend credance to the scheme ? The first step in the scheme is already vindicated ... I have put in bold type the part of the scheme that we are to look for in the future.

source: Lowered Oil and Gas Prices: Stage Three of the Bush October Surprise

As we are approaching the mid-term US Congressional elections during the first week of November, the NIME has demonstrated an amazing discipline and cooperation with the Bush administration.

However, it is absolutely certain that oil prices will rally directly after the US mid-term Congressional elections. The current lower prices represent a service from the NIME merchants and brokers to the Bush administration in return for the huge wealth they have accumulated during the Bush terms in office.

... read the entire article and the supporting links.

So place your bets. I bet that prices will rise dramatically after the elections. Anybody care to take me up on it?

word nazi says

seth 2006-09-17 10:11:21 4405 ...SNIP...however, it is absolutely certain that oil prices will rally directly after the US mid-term Congressional elections.

It depends a lot more on such things as the weather & hurricanes, the state of the war in the Middle East, Iraq, & what someone said during the last oil spike ... "If politicians would keep their mouths shut then the price of gasoline would go down!" ... Ahmadinejad

Seth says

seth 2006-09-15 14:30:07 4405

seth 2006-09-14 09:39:19 4405

I think that Yemen is close enough to vindicate my prediction.

140 years of OIL left

About: bostonherald.com - international news: world has tapped just 18 percent of global oil supplies, saudi executive says

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