Hurricane Season prediction models way off

About: hurricanes hardly happen - october 4, 2006 - the new york sun

source: Call it the hurricane season that wasn't. Forecasters had predicted that this year would witness one of the most severe Atlantic storm seasons in history, a follow-up punch after a record-setting autumn last year that witnessed 28 named storms. Now the same prognosticators say this season will likely end with only 11 tropical storms on the books, of which only six will have attained hurricane strength. None have threatened the American coast with wide-scale destruction.
...  Flashback!  Remember all those so-called scientists during Katrina panic who said that global warming was going to cause more & more hurricanes just like Katrina ?

source: Earlier this year, 60 prominent Canadian scientists sent an open letter to their prime minister calling attention to the limits of modern climate science in predicting either weather trends or how changes in human behavior will affect those patterns. "Observational evidence does not support today's computer climate models," they wrote, "so there is little reason to trust model predictions of the future." Faulty forecasts of the current hurricane season are a case in point
...
Environmentalist Wackos please take note!
This is your road in life!
Too bad Gore's science can't stand up to scrutiny any other way!







... See url http://www.junkscience.com for the countdown clock for Gore's shame!


Tags

  1. global warming
  2. wacko warning

Comments


Seth says
Yeah i had anticipated a bad hurricane season myself ... luckily it hasn't happened.

Mark de LA says
Yep, the weather people predicted snow locally for the Denver area - not a flake (of snow) . (;-((

Mark de LA says
I wonder just how long it will be until we have another Scopes Trial on whether teachers are allowed to teach anything except global warming alarmism.



Seth says
M 2006-10-12 07:14:45 4582
Yep, the weather people predicted snow locally for the Denver area - not a flake (of snow) . (;-((
What is the difference between weather prediction and climate prediction?

Mark de LA says
climate Look up climate at Dictionary.com1375, from O.Fr. climat, from L. clima (gen. climatis) "region, slope of the Earth," from Gk. klima "region, zone," from base of klinein "to slope," thus "slope of the Earth from equator to pole," from PIE base *klei- "to lean" (see lean (v.)). Angle of sun on the slope defined the zones assigned by early geographers. Meaning moved from "region" to "weather associated with that region" by c.1600. Climatology first recorded 1843.weather Look up weather at Dictionary.comO.E. weder, from P.Gmc. *wedran (cf. O.S. wedar, O.N. ve

Seth says
The question remains: What is the salient difference between weather prediction and climate prediction?

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-10-12 07:50:14 4582
The question remains: What is the salient difference between weather prediction and climate prediction?
To me they are distinctions without a difference. The website American Heritage Book of English Usage is not much of a help.  For those that want to make a difference I suspect it would be the difference between climatology & meteorology .  It is probably more about how much the grants are worth to the research scientists. I suspect that nowadays climatology gets the bigger bucks.

I suspect that climate & environment are equivalent notions AND weather & meteorology are similarly equated. Thus to pin it down for you (assuming you were ignorant of the difference beforehand)  climate is the environment & weather is about the storms & phenomena in the environment. 

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-10-12 08:56:56 4582
M 2006-10-12 08:01:52 4582
seth 2006-10-12 07:50:14 4582
The question remains: What is the salient difference between weather prediction and climate prediction?
To me they are distinctions without a difference.
I don't think you will find the answer by analyzing dictionary definitions.  But here is a respected scientist in field who has answered that question:  Short and simple arguments for why climate can be predicted.
Leave it to someone who has a dog in this fight. His answer was neither short nor simple. My last definitions were good.

Seth says
M 2006-11-27 10:11:53 4582
Here is a hurricane wrapup which may (or not for the church of the Alarmist Ooze) cause the latter dismal gloom.
Most of those studying climate change know the difference between climate and weather (see my comments above).  Note that the following is a description of weather that happened this year ...
source: Hurricane Predictions Off Track As Tranquil Season Wafts Away
So what happened? Lots.

Storms were starved for fuel after ingesting masses of dry Saharan dust and air over the Atlantic Ocean. Scientists say the storm-snuffing dust was more abundant than usual this year.

In the season's peak, storms were curving right like errant field goals. High pressure that normally hunkers near Bermuda shifted far eastward, and five storms rode the clockwise winds away from Florida.

Finally, a rapidly growing El Nino, a warming of water over the tropical Pacific Ocean, shifted winds high in the atmosphere southward. The winds left developing storms disheveled and unable to become organized.
... The climate change will happen over the next century and beyond.  May i suggest that you enjoy your good weather while you can ... you childern can deal with the bad weather when it comes.

Mark de LA says
Here is a hurricane wrapup which may (or not for the church of the Alarmist Ooze) cause the latter dismal gloom.


Mark de LA says
Welcome back O, grand of the Church of the Alarmist Ooze! It's been a while!

Mark de LA says


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