Modeling Negotiations

About: improvisational negotiation book

What might be more fun than arguing about or trying to predict what is going to happen with the Middle East & Radical-Extremist Islamites, Jews, Palestinians & Iran etc. is to model what might become successful negotiations for a century of lasting peace for all the stakeholders in that area of the World & by extension perhaps the whole World. 
Let's assume that war & force have to be ruled out as unworkable solutions. Let's also say that religious domination is also unlikely to work to a peaceful end considering that humans are always free to think what they will regardless of their external circumstances.  The next domain to explore then might just be cooperative economics.

I propose to look at economic points from the following nodes

(pic from google cooperation images)

Tags

  1. negotiations
  2. modeling
  3. middle east

Comments


Mark de LA says
What would a large infusion of capital into the Palestinian areas of the Middle East produce ? More or less terrorism? How about business investment? Tourism ? What would a "let's get back to business" movement produce in that area? Is Extremist Islam anti-business? Does Extremist Islam desire to revert back to a 4th century world ?

Seth says
M 2006-11-20 09:35:18 5044
What would a large infusion of capital into the Palestinian areas of the Middle East produce ? More or less terrorism? How about business investment? Tourism ? What would a "let's get back to business" movement produce in that area? Is Extremist Islam anti-business? Does Extremist Islam desire to revert back to a 4th century world ?
Wow, we are a long way from "business investment" ... they don't even have enough money to pay their civil servants due to the freeze on aid from the Quartet.  Obviously if the people are busy with thriving commerce, there will be less terrorism.  I see no evidance that "Extremist Islam desire to revert back to a 4th century world" ... that seems to be more of a thing talked about by Western pundits.  On the other hand turning Gaza into a tourist srtip mall by massive capital investment, does not sound like a solution.  You do raise an interesting question ... what is a good industry for Gaza ... for the West Bank ?

Mark de LA says
Nobody suggested a tourist strip mall. Investment can be in traditional trade outlets or self-sufficient energy resources & many other things. The excesses of Dubai's man-made islands & ski slopes in the desert are not what I am talking about, but who knows ? If those who pretend to speak for the Palestinians were to declare at the top of their lungs that Israel has a right to exist most of their inability to pay their bureaucrats would disappear instantly. So, is there a possibility for Hamas & Hezbollah & Iran's proxies to recognize that right ? Say, in the name of thriving commerce ? I think the Wikipedia mentioned that the first conflicts that Mohammed fought were over trade.

Seth says
I doubt that there are incentives or sanctions or staged combination of both that will work to eliminate nuclear proliferation.   I think you need to deal with the motivation to go nuclear ... which, me thinks, is to gain prestige and leverage against other nations ... it is membership i an exclusive club of countries that you cannot kick around with impunity ... or so it is percieved by those trying to get in. What is the new idea that this node introduces?

Mark de LA says
seth 2006-11-21 08:41:14 5044
 What is the new idea that this node introduces?
Why it is the stuff in red!   Is a century of peace, commerce & cooperation (instead of conflict) worth giving up the drumbeat of war ?
In America you might ask the same question or "Is all the national treasure & blood worth spending on conflict or could it be better spent on a crash project to find an perfect energy for all purposes that does not involve Middle Eastern (or any source) oil. The oil trump card needs to be trumped without going to the nuclear trump card. Without the oil trump card the Middle East would simmer down & regular commerce & development could take place.

Mark de LA says
    We can probably agree that the throttling of commerce & economics (known as sanctions) is never complete enough to achieve instant changes.  Furthermore it spawns a huge black market usually profiting the regime that is in power (Iraq & Saddam for example; Kim Jhong Ill & N. Korea). Officially blockades & such are considered an act of war & are what started the US Civil War.  So, either the unanimity of economic sanctions would have to be improved giving an outlaw regime that it truly stands alone or positive incentives rather than negative incentives need to be developed.
     As far as Iran goes the offering of positive incentives to stop their nuclear ambitions has failed over & over again.  Russia & China seem to have a stake in Iran continuing to supply oil in return for whatever (nuclear technology & reactors, missles etc ?).
     So the question is what incentives can work ?  I do not want to restart the argument about global nuclear disarmament here again & I will delete such comments if they occur. 


Mark de LA says
We started off OK, but got off into the usual rather quickly.  I have deleted the comments that were not pertinent here. Any further comments S/B to the idea that successful negotiations for a century of lasting peace for all the stakeholders in the area of the World (Middle East) can be modeled here & that commerce & trade is the portal for achieving success.
Arguing who is right & who is wrong from the power & religious & social perspectives has proved fruitless so far.


Mark de LA says
WFB on the minimum wage is [here: url http://tinyurl.com/ybxbqn] - the last comment on surfs may be applicable somehow to the economics of poverty & hence this item.

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