A Winning Script for Iraq

Wanted
Secular Strong Man to Rule Iraq
Compensation package to include
1,000,000 barrels of oil per day.

I do not advocate this script.  However it is a script that, however politically unacceptable, would end up "winning" (as defined by Bush) in Iraq.  Strangely enough, with all his bravado, Bush's script to win in Iraq is wishy-washy and riddled with contradictions and is consequently doomed to failure. It may be informative  to investigate what kind of script would be necessary to actually win, if we accept the administration's assumptions.  So here it is:
  1. Continue with the Kegan plan to clear and hold Baghdad.
  2. Hold the Maliki government to the stated benchmarks in the "New Way Forward" script and to his promise to get-it-done by November.  
  3. Then add to that a stated consequence (4), that would be implimented directly if the Maliki government fails to meet their promises.
  4. If the Iraqi government does not fulfill its expectations,  then reoccupy Baghdad and impose a secular government there.  The same effect could be produced by a US support of a military coup.
Discussion:  There is adequate evidence that the Maliki government is primarialy a Shia conspiracy to wait out the occupation and then install a theocracy.  Supporting and arming such a enterprise does not really meet Bush's stated objectives.  If however, this is not true, then Bush's way forward has a real chance and we should be able to see real progress by November.  But the pressure of knowing the dire consequences of failure is a profound motivator to win.  In any case, if Maliki fails, then the reocuppation of Baghdad and the installation of a new secular government there still meet Bush's stated objectives.  If the American public buy into those objectives, then it should be possible to sell them a practical way to achieve them.  This will pit the military might of the US directly against the cunning of the apparent enemy.  We should be up to the task.  If done right, this script, however abhorant, will at least introduce clarity of purpose into the conflict.  Would not such a bold clarity win?

  If i was Bush and bought into this script, i would leak a memo from the Pentagon that disclosed a plan to back a military coup in Iraq if it looked like Maliki was going to fail.   This would have the same motivating effect as a publicly stated contingency without the kind of political rammifications that Mark is complaining about in his comments.   Think of the effect such a memo would have on Shia leaders like Moqtada Sadr and the Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.  These clerics would be faced, on the one hand with reining in their death squads, helping the new way forward work and then at least ending up with a Shia dominated government.  Or, on the other hand, being faced with demolition by US forces and ending up with a secular government.  Given those choices, which way do you think they will go?  Such a leak would only serve to help the new way forward.  And, again, if Maliki fails anyway, then we actually should have the strong man ready to make his coup. Voil

Tags

  1. iraq
  2. scripts
  3. winning
  4. nie
  5. strongman

Comments


Realist says
The reoccupation of Baghdad on Maliki's failure is new.  Try getting that past the Democratic congress. The problem with it might be that theoretically Iraq is soverign & we must deal with the legally elected government which has Maliki at the head. 

Seth says
Realist 2007-01-18 11:21:50 5778
 Try getting that past the Democratic congress.
Don't need to ..
source: Tony Snow
The White House press spokesperson, said resolutions passed by Congress will not affect Bush's decision-making. "The president has obligations as a commander in chief. And he will go ahead and execute them."

source: Realist 2007-01-18 11:21:50 5778
The problem with it might be that theoretically Iraq is soverign & we must deal with the legally elected government which has Maliki at the head.
These problems are solved by military might.  Iraq was soverign before we invaded it. 

The only critical problem with the script that i can see is that it may not be all that easy to install a secular government composed of Iraqi leaders. 

One wonders what how Bush has written his own script should Maliki default on his promises. Certainly he has a plan.  Do you think it is substantually different than this one?

Realist says
Here is a cartoon that may point to the options in the cards:
To concede to a Shia government is to ignore the facts that most of the people do not want a theocracy & that Saudi Arabia will get in the mix, being Sunni, if we leave in a hurry.


Abdullah al-Ahmar says
Lol you just hanged him !

Mark de LA says
seth 2007-01-18 14:03:10 5778
Maliki is a Shia sectarian and not a strong man ... he obviously does not fill the bill.  Sadar is a strong man and could fill the bill, but then that does not qualify for Bush's victory.   Too bad that there does not appear to be anyone in the world with enough wisdom to step into the frey and setup such a situation.  Why didnt Condy seek out such an individual?
You keep forgetting about the elections in Iraq. We have been trying to work with the Constitution & duly elected government of Iraq. Sadar is a gangster & a Shiite.  It's not up to Dr. Rice to select a different person. Politics must prevail in the political domain. The problem is outsiders & the remnants of factions that have militias & gangs who still don't like the duly elected government. Maliki has said that he wants to disarm the militae. Let's assist & see if he can keep his word.

Seth says
(2) in the demo's plan is not a forgone conclusion.  In fact quite the opposite might happen.  I know, everybody says this, it has become a mantra; but it is one of those assumptions that needs to be challenged.  Assertaining the truth of such a matter is an example of why we need mechinisms in place to determine the truth of various propositions apart from political biases.  In any case me thinks it is an even bet.  There must have been a way to set up the withdrawal such that an effective strong man would have been poised to fill the power vacum and prevent a blood bath.  Maliki is a Shia sectarian and not a strong man ... he obviously does not fill the bill.  Sadar is a strong man and could fill the bill, but then that does not qualify for Bush's victory.   Too bad that there does not appear to be anyone in the world with enough wisdom to step into the frey and setup such a situation.  Why didnt Condy seek out such an individual?
Wanted
Secular Strong Man to Rule Iraq
Compensation package to include
1,000,000 barrels of oil per day.

Seth says
It appears that the Washington Post has seen the lack of a followthrough as well ...
source: washingtopost.com
We need to define that intermediate strategy. Right now there are only three policies on the table: (1) the surge, which a majority of Congress opposes, (2) the status quo, which everybody opposes, and (3) the abandonment of Iraq, which appears to be the default Democratic alternative.

What is missing is a fourth alternative, both as a threat to Maliki and as an actual fallback if the surge fails. The Pentagon should be working on a sustainable Plan B ...
... They, however, have a very different Plan B in mind.

Seth says
M 2007-01-18 17:19:57 5778
We invaded in order to provide the liberation of the country from a dictator who was murdering his own people & who was bribing the UN to get around sanctions; who violated UN resolutions & who, if santions were lifted, would have had an WMD (probably nuclear) having worked on them before & having used them on his own people.  Having done that we now have supervised (along with the UN) the elections, constitution & establishment of a duly elected government.  Seth, don't be obtuse. Any new democracy has problems. It took the US a while to get things straight.  Three are those who are anti-democracy. Most of them are thugs & terrorists & insurgents.  Get over it! 
Please watch you tone on my blog as i will watch mine on yours.  In any case you have provided absolutely no insight here that goes beyond PC administration rhetoric.

Seth says
M 2007-01-18 15:44:47 5778
You keep forgetting about the elections in Iraq. We have been trying to work with the Constitution & duly elected government of Iraq. Sadar is a gangster & a Shiite.  It's not up to Dr. Rice to select a different person. Politics must prevail in the political domain. The problem is outsiders & the remnants of factions that have militias & gangs who still don't like the duly elected government. Maliki has said that he wants to disarm the militae. Let's assist & see if he can keep his word.
Was it "politics must prevail in a political domain" when invaded Iraq?  Is it "politics must prevail" when we contrive to thwart Hammas's duly elected government in Gaza?  If you want victory in Iraq, then you must be prepared not to speak out of both sides of your neck.   You must be prepared to do what is necessary.
Maliki has said that he wants to disarm the militae. Let's assist & see if he can keep his word.
Yep that is step 1 of the script.  This script addressed the issue of what you do when that fails.  Revisit the script in January 2008 ... it might make more sense to you then.   

Mark de LA says
seth 2007-01-19 09:05:10 5778
It appears that the Washington Post has seen the lack of a follow-through as well ...
source: washingtopost.com
We need to define that intermediate strategy. Right now there are only three policies on the table: (1) the surge, which a majority of Congress opposes, (2) the status quo, which everybody opposes, and (3) the abandonment of Iraq, which appears to be the default Democratic alternative.

What is missing is a fourth alternative, both as a threat to Maliki and as an actual fallback if the surge fails. The Pentagon should be working on a sustainable Plan B ...
... They, however, have a very different Plan B in mind.
Yep, there are lots of armchair generals without any responsibility for the results causing a lot of global warming with their hot air! It almost makes my bowels surge with enthusiasm.    Hmmm... Do ya think the generals might not want to broadcast all of their strategy to the enemy?

Seth says
M 2007-01-19 10:52:24 5778
 Do ya think the generals might not want to broadcast all of their strategy to the enemy?
Sending messages of deterance and motivation to your enemys and allys has been done since warefare begun.  Sending a message to the Shai leadership in Iraq that they may loose control of the country if they do not eliminate violence is exactly the motivation they might need.  Unfortunately (and this is something that you apprently missed) that same message heard by the Sunni insurgents would have the opposite effect.  The callenge of this script is to figure out how to nuteralize that.  Only thing i can think of so far is to somehow use it leverage the Sunni into reconcilliation talks with Maliki. 

Seth says
There is a rumor supporting this script ...
source: Informed Comment
A rumor is circulating among well-connected and formerly high-level Iraqi bureaucrats in exile in places like Damascus that a military coup is being prepared for Iraq.


See Also

  1. Thought Watching Baghdad Gated Communities Develop with 270 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  2. Thought Lucifer Takes over with 202 viewings related by tag "winning".
  3. Thought about: neurotic Iraqi wife with 42 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  4. Thought Politics = RWG with 24 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  5. Thought about: The Scorpion and the Tortoise: Enacted in American politics with 14 viewings related by tag "winning".
  6. Thought The 2004-2005 Murder Rate in the US with 4 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  7. Thought Accessing The Threat of The Islamic Army's Abeer Missile with 4 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  8. Thought Antisemitic Maliki ? with 2 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  9. Thought about: Divide and rule - America's plan for Baghdad with 2 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  10. Thought Quick Script Writing Tutorial with 2 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  11. Thought The Dogs Of War with 2 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  12. Thought about: Situation Called Dire in West Iraq with 1 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  13. Thought An Iraqi woman struggling with her faith with 1 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  14. Thought Usually the Enemy Declares Victory First with 1 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  15. Thought The Bush administration feared that destroying Zarqawi's camp in Iraq could undercut its case for war against Saddam. with 1 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  16. Thought Persians Vs Arabs with 1 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  17. Thought One man's propaganda is another man's truth is a third man's JOKE with 1 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  18. Thought Was the Osama/Sadam connection manufactured, or not? with 1 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  19. Thought What are the benchmarks for Iraq and what is the salient differences between them and deadlines? with 1 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  20. Thought The Al-shaaoura (non?) Event with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  21. Thought The Occupation of Iraq: Winning The War, Losing The Peace with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  22. Thought Saddam & Weapons of Mass Destruction with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  23. Thought A terrible question ... with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  24. Thought Obama *** Then VS Now - with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  25. Thought about: Aljazeera Cartoons with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  26. Thought What we do to each other matters, for that is the very being of our humanity. with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  27. Thought about: Is Iran planning a cataclysmic strike for August 22? with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  28. Thought Murder & Merde with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  29. Thought about: The New Way Forward with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  30. Thought about: Olmert gives IDF green light to expand ground offensive with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  31. Thought about: Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  32. Thought Would that it was Otherwise with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  33. Thought Support The Troops with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  34. Thought UN Resolution 1701 with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  35. Thought The Shame of War In A Democracy with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  36. Thought The Quintessential Jewish Script with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  37. Thought What does stay the course really mean? with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  38. Thought Community Organizing & Power with 0 viewings related by tag "winning".
  39. Thought Other Side of the Story Anyone ? with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  40. Thought about: Al-Qaeda planning militant Islamic state within Iraq with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  41. Thought Where are we in the script ? with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  42. Thought Means Justify the Ends? with 0 viewings related by tag "winning".
  43. Thought Rumsfield Rice visit Iraq (2nd day) with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  44. Thought Tracking internal Israeli politics with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  45. Thought Supplemental Funding of the Surge with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  46. Thought Iranian diplomat kidnapped with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  47. Thought about: Doc Searls: War in pieces with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  48. Thought One road to peace ... saying things that need to be said. with 0 viewings related by tag "scripts".
  49. Thought Cut and run ? with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".
  50. Thought Pictures from the Front Lines with 0 viewings related by tag "iraq".