You can't end a war, you can only win it or lose it.

Bullshit, uncle Jimbo !!!

If i am fighting somone and i simply walk away, i have neither won nor lost ...uncle Jimbo's balligerant belief's notwithstanding.   His beliefs are just a direct coding of a zero sum game and would lock the world into RWG forever should everybody believe them.  Me hopes that people can see the error of that kind of thinking and rhetoric. 

People, let's get into that upper right quadrant !

Tags

  1. war
  2. rwg
  3. my comments
  4. iraq war diagram

Comments


Mark de LA says
Hmm.... your diagram has nothing to do with WAR! WAR is different! People rarely get killed in commerce unless it is of the black market kind.
There is usually a 3rd kind of way to terminate a war - the truce & the cease-fire. Korea & Viet Nam are examples.  So is the first Gulf War. Had the US gone for victory in the first Gulf War today's problems would not be so great. Victory works every time it's tried.
 
I wonder if this will do the job.  Can Congress just end the war with a resolution ? If so, then why haven't they done it if they think that the majority of Americans want it ?

Mark de LA says
BTW, truce & cease-fire is just a postponement of a war. It usually comes back to bite somebody in the ass later on! E.g. the Palestinians, N. Korea, Iraq ....
Then there are some people who refuse to acknowledge defeat anyway, they just hang out until nobody is watching & restart the war themselves like Lebanon, the Palestinians etc. Complete victory & subjugation is the only way to really end & win a war; as ugly as that sounds.

Seth says
M 2007-05-04 08:40:49 7091
 your diagram has nothing to do with WAR! WAR is different! People rarely get killed in commerce unless it is of the black market kind.
Well the diagram was scraped from an economic example, but game theory does apply in all cases where you have a win or a loose for the players.  It was originally applied to the Prisoner's dilema which had nothing to do with economics. 

Seth says
M 2007-05-04 08:46:50 7091
Complete victory & subjugation is the only way to really end & win a war; as ugly as that sounds.
Yep, sounds ugly indeed ... not to mention that it is just wrong ... and is, in fact, a defeatist attitude surrendering humanity to rwg forever.  Now, dude (as you would say), get out of the loop!

Seth says
source:  my comment on Jimbo's blog
Comment below written by: Seth Russell

If i am fighting you and i just walk away, i have neither won nor lost. You've locked us into a zero sum game here. I've illustrated it better on my blog today. The human race should alway try for the win-win!

Posted by: Seth Russell | May 4, 2007 10:42:10 AM

... thank's, Jimbo, for not deleting it

Mark de LA says
seth 2007-05-04 09:01:08 7091
M 2007-05-04 08:46:50 7091
Complete victory & subjugation is the only way to really end & win a war; as ugly as that sounds.
Yep, sounds ugly indeed ... not to mention that it is just wrong ... and is, in fact, a defeatist attitude surrendering humanity to rwg forever.  Now, dude (as you would say), get out of the loop!
Sounds like you just enjoined the RWG! ... just proving that you are very much in the loop.  My statement is a reality-check! My previous comments in particular show that wars don't end; they just go away & resurrect.  That is HISTORY! Now if you have a solution that works at the level of peoples or countries or humanity itself - start another train of thought or put it on 7059


Rich Casebolt says
Seth ... problem is, the enemy gets a vote.

What if THEY are not interested in win-win?

What do you do then?

Keep in mind ... that virtually ALL the progress in terms of liberating people, reducing arms stockpiles, and reducing tensions since WWII ... has come at the hands of leaders willing to CONFRONT totalitarian enemies, and stand until they either turn away from that way of doing business ... or are destroyed from within or without.

And, give us some credit for nuance, Seth ... in the eyes of people like Jimbo and myself who are pro-victory, "THEM" is limited to the jihadis and thugs who take up arms against anyone who does not submit to their will ... a "THEM" that does not include the vast majority of Iraqis (or even Muslims for that matter) ... people who we are striving to PERMANENTLY protect -- for our own interest in security, as well as for our compassion for their humanity -- from terror and the thug regimes that spawn it.

In an earlier time, we would have neither been able, nor inclined, to make such a distinction.

Efforts that distract us from the confrontation and defeat of such enemies, like you are proposing, will lead us back to that earlier time ... when, our backs against the wall, we have to engage in sand-to-glass-conversion-via-neutron-fluence on a national scale ...

... to put an end to an existential threat to world civilization, that we could instead put down now, at a much lower cost in blood and treasure.

Seth says
M 2007-05-04 09:15:16 7091
My previous comments in particular show that wars don't end; they just go away & resurrect.  That is HISTORY!
Sure one can cherry pick from history and arrive at your belief, but there are examples to the contrary ... the VietNam war is a case in point ... we just walked away, and now there is no more war in VietNam.  If you make an complete study that includes every conflict for a period of history me thinks that you will not end with the conclusion that you have arrived at. 

Mark de LA says
The WW-II war in the Pacific with Japan is an example, ended decisively at Hiroshima & Nagasaki; they surrendered & now we count them more or less as allies! That's the way to win a war.  OTOH, if you want to nuance defeat into something else then go for it, you own it!  Does anyone doubt what the Jihadis would do if they actually managed to defeat the US? Complete subjugation to their version of Allah! (Islam = subjugation)!

Rich Casebolt says
<i>the VietNam war is a case in point ... we just walked away, and now there is no more war in VietNam.</i>

Yes -- after the Communists killed thousands there, imprisoned even more in re-education camps, while the "lucky" ones escaped as the "boat people" (if they weren't killed by the ocean or pirates in the process).

The war went on after we left, Seth ... it was just a lot more one-sided.

And it put Vietnam into a Dark Age that it is just now coming out of.

Some things are worse than war.

Seth says
M 2007-05-04 09:46:22 7091
seth 2007-05-04 09:24:14 7091
M 2007-05-04 09:17:10 7091
BTW, if you redo the diagram for war it might be interesting!
It would be identical with just the words Seller and Buyer changed to Combatant(1) and Combatant(2).
You would also have to get rid of the words money in the upper right quadrant.  Then what you have is the various binary combinations of win/loose for 2 participants which provides no insight on a WAR!
Right, it does not shed any insight on stratagies for winning a war, but it does point the direction out of the war instead of the defeatist attitude twards getting out of the war that Jimbo has coded into his belief that "You can't end a war, you can only win it or lose it" which is why it is directly applicable here.  The point being you need to look for a shared purpose where both parties to the conflict get what they want.  If you assume from the get-go that there is no such shared purpose, then you are in fact doomed to the conflict. 

Seth says
Rich Casebolt 2007-05-04 09:28:23 7091
Seth ... problem is, the enemy gets a vote.
What if THEY are not interested in win-win?
What do you do then?
Keep in mind ... that virtually ALL the progress in terms of liberating people, reducing arms stockpiles, and reducing tensions since WWII ... has come at the hands of leaders willing to CONFRONT totalitarian enemies, and stand until they either turn away from that way of doing business ... or are destroyed from within or without.

Note the second "win" part of win-win ... everybody is interesting in winning ... especially a people who are suffering the devistations of war.  Finding the the win part of the other side is always difficult, but rarely impossible.  In the case of the Iraqi people we need to break that down to particula factions: Shia, Sunni, Al-Qaeda, Kurds etc .. you need to figure out how each factor gets what they really want such that it does not intefear with what the other factions want.  Don't just assume that there is no solution ... don't throw more fuel on the fire ... think outside of the tempestous cauldron ... or not, just keep the killing going if that is what you are programed to do.
And, give us some credit for nuance, Seth ... in the eyes of people like Jimbo and myself who are pro-victory, "THEM" is limited to the jihadis and thugs who take up arms against anyone who does not submit to their will ... a "THEM" that does not include the vast majority of Iraqis (or even Muslims for that matter) ... people who we are striving to PERMANENTLY protect -- for our own interest in security, as well as for our compassion for their humanity -- from terror and the thug regimes that spawn it.

In an earlier time, we would have neither been able, nor inclined, to make such a distinction.

Efforts that distract us from the confrontation and defeat of such enemies, like you are proposing, will lead us back to that earlier time ... when, our backs against the wall, we have to engage in sand-to-glass-conversion-via-neutron-fluence on a national scale ...

... to put an end to an existential threat to world civilization, that we could instead put down now, at a much lower cost in blood and treasure.
Well i agree this war is nuansed and complex ... not like WWII where there was just us and the gooks.  And by insisting on the binary language of "victory" or "surrender", you and Jimbo are actually removing all of the nuanses. Note the two separate vectors comming out of the US military force ... one of those we must continue and perhaps even win ... the other is working directly against a stable Iraqi government. 

Btw, i do not accept your assumptions when you say "to put an end to an existential threat to world civilization, that we could instead put down now, at a much lower cost in blood and treasure", but more about that perhaps later.

 In any case i thank you for your even headed well considered reasoning and hope that such dialogue will continue between us in the future.


Seth says
M 2007-05-04 10:04:36 7091
seth 2007-05-04 09:56:34 7091
M 2007-05-04 09:46:22 7091
seth 2007-05-04 09:24:14 7091
M 2007-05-04 09:17:10 7091
BTW, if you redo the diagram for war it might be interesting!
It would be identical with just the words Seller and Buyer changed to Combatant(1) and Combatant(2).
You would also have to get rid of the words money in the upper right quadrant.  Then what you have is the various binary combinations of win/loose for 2 participants which provides no insight on a WAR!
Right, it does not shed any insight on stratagies for winning a war, but it does point the direction out of the war instead of the defeatist attitude twards getting out of the war that Jimbo has coded into his belief that "You can't end a war, you can only win it or lose it" which is why it is directly applicable here.  The point being you need to look for a shared purpose where both parties to the conflict get what they want.  If you assume from the get-go that there is no such shared purpose, then you are in fact doomed to the conflict. 
Win-win is an over-used slogan used by the fuzzy-thinking crowd; almost a meme to induce somnolence or hypnosis.  Oh! WOW - win-win I must automatically go for whatever that is all about! Test it out in History & reality - when has it ever happened in war?
In every conflict where there was a truce and the war did not break out again.  Do the detailed work of a complete study if you want a better truth.

Seth says
Watch JimBo's empassioned video in which he spews his anamosities out on youtube.   The only thing that bugs me about such spewings is that they don't make sense unless you distort the other point of view ... hint: study the ISG, phased redeployment does not mean what you said it did. 

Mark de LA says
In my mind there is not much to research.  Basically, this is an opinion piece. I have failed to convince you & that's OK. We will live to fight & die another day.

Seth says
seth 2007-05-04 13:31:23 7091
M 2007-05-04 12:33:38 7091
source: ...
In every conflict where there was a truce and the war did not break out again.  Do the detailed work of a complete study if you want a better truth.

...In other words you can't come up with one.  I cite the World War II with Japan as a counter example!
No i don't have any such knowledge on the top of my head and we will never know without an enquiry into the facts of the matter.  Such an enquiry, which would be a shared purpose, would list ever war in the 20th (and perhaps the 19th) centuries, there cost in lives on both sides - civilian and military, there cost in $, how they were ended, and whether they sprung up again.  Let the chips fall where they may.  Otherwise we are just randomly pissing into the wind.
To bad you haven't taken me up on this project.  It would have been a very interesting project. It could be expanded to inclde a database of wars and various facts about them ... it might actually be useful in forming foreign policy.  This came up again in my mind from reading Fred Thompson's excellant piece in the national review.

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