Changing Dynamics in Iraq


The phase that started with the Al Qaeda bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra might be comming to an end. The objectives of that action must have been to create a cival war between Shia and Sunni increasing chaos in Iraq such that the weak Shia sectarian government would fail and Al Qaedaism could flourish.  That objective has been accomplished.  The surge has been primarialy targed against decreasing that sectarian fighting ... especially in Baghdad. In September Petraeus will probably report that sectarian violence will have dramatically dimished.

There is one primary unifying force that tends to unite the Shia and Sunni sects ... and that is their common enemy ... the West (US, Briton, Israel).  There is a report that Iran will attempt to leverage this to effect a humiliating exit of US forces from the Middle East.  Should that stratagy play out, we can see how our dynamics diagram will change ... the Shia node will merge with the Insurgents/Al-Qaeda node.  They will attack the US military force and the Iraqi government green zone instead of each other. 

Just so you can predict whether your comment will be accepted on this node, please note that this node is not about me, not about you, not about democrats, not about republicans and certainly not about being right  ... it is about predicting what will happen.

Tags

  1. iraq
  2. war
  3. scripts
  4. iraq war diagram

Comments


Seth says
source: FM: Green Zone Most Dangerous Place in Iraq
In a wide-ranging interview on Australia's ABC TV network Monday, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari made a striking claim: "The Green Zone is the most dangerous place in Iraq these days. So outside the Green Zone is much safer."
Is this an early indication of my prediction: "They will attack the US military force and the Iraqi government green zone instead of each other" ?

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