Tracking The Price Of Oil

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  1. oil prices
  2. oil
  3. peak oil
  4. events
  5. tracking

Comments


Seth says
Thanks, oil-price.net for this interactive graph.  This kind of script cannot be placed in a item or comment here at fastblogit,  but of course the wizzard has the ability ... just update the db with .

Seth says

M 2008-06-06 11:56:14 8298
Probably more like $4.25 where you are & $3.76 near where I am!  Whatever service you use even if it is the USPS the costs will rise with the costs of fuel.  When you can email your products then you can be smug about the rise in ga$oline price$. 

topping off another $2.  Now we are on pace to vindicate my prediction of $140 by June 9th.   Thanks for the correction, i guess my mind is still back a year ago when i was saying that it would never get lower than $2/gal. 

Mark de LA says
seth 2007-10-26 08:27:36 8298
source: Fars news agency
Oil rose above $92 a barrel for the first time in New York after the US charge Iran with baseless accusations and stepped up pressure on foreign companies to cut ties with the Middle East oil producer.
I wonder if Bush predicted that the first effect of his new sanctions on Iran would be to increase  the price of oil and put more money in Iran's coffers?
Once Iran has a nuke & destroys Israel &/or attacks the US then nobody will be left to worry about the price of oil.  A good many Iranians don't like their government, but are opressed by the mullahs & Mamoud's goons.  When/if external pressure forces a change in government in Iran then we will see a decline in the price of oil.

I wonder if Bush predicted that the first effect of his new sanctions on Iran would be to increase  the price of oil and put more money in Iran's coffers?
Once Iran has a nuke & destroys Israel &/or attacks the US then nobody will be left to worry about the price of oil.  A good many Iranians don't like their government, but are opressed by the mullahs & Mamoud's goons.  When/if external pressure forces a change in government in Iran then we will see a decline in the price of oil.


Seth says
Yahoo finance also has a good graph, but it is hard to beat the one below ...



Seth says

But if you want grist for panic, you should read Six Degrees and the review here.    This world will change, whether we like it or not.   It makes little difference whether people change their thinking because of fear of climate change, or from fear of running out of oil.  I'm thinking that escilating gas prices will be more motivating to some people than the more abstract threat of a 1 or 2 degree rise in temperature in this centuery.  Six degrees will tell you what to expect based upon 1 or 2 ... degrees.   What changes do you expect from gas at $4/gal ...$10 ... $100  ... $1000 ?




Seth says
MR 2007-11-26 11:05:30 8298
seth 2007-11-26 11:03:28 8298
MR 2007-11-26 10:43:46 8298
Like that means something?
If it is true, then it means that the price of oil and gass will keep going up and up and will never go back down.  From now on ... every year less oil will be pumped from the ground notwistanding that the demand for it goes up.  This is a new perdicament to which industrial developement must adapt.  But it is good news for the planet ... apparently oil is running out just when we should stop using it anyway. 
Panic on!
MR, there is absolutely no hint of panic in what i have said here !  I wish you would stop accusing me of it.  It is important to grok what is comming so that we can adapt to it. 

Seth says


I finally caught it above $100

... wonder if it will stick there?


Seth says
A new high today ...
Now if i wanted to confuse fluxuations with trends i'd write a artitle entiteled "Oil goes througth the roof ...  $5/gal gass expected this year".    Come on guys let's get those fear juices flowing this morning!

Seth says

I'm beginning to think that this price of oil is more about the value of the dollar than the value of oil.   The more money you print, the less it is worth.


Mark de LA says
seth 2008-03-07 11:05:19 8298
I'm beginning to think that this price of oil is more about the value of the dollar than the value of oil.   The more money you print, the less it is worth.

It's more like the more the government spends the less the private sector (banks & governments - foreign & domestic) are willing to underwrite the national debt. The national debt competes with private debt.  The US$ is worth less abroad if the balance of payments is in favor of the foreign governments. Couple that with the encouragement of US banks to make loans on houses to questionable people just for the illusion of prosperity & the American dream & you have a lot of banks with loan assets which are not liquid.  Finally, you have an election year where the M$M, mostly liberal, want to regain power such that all economic news, however positive, will be re-cast as bad news in the hope that the electorate will vote for change. IMHO, we have the ingredients of perfect economic storm !  Hang on for a bumpy ride.


Mark de LA says
OTOH, maybe I should rent Road Warrior (Mad Max) & pick up a tip or two just in case !


Seth says

New all time high today.


Seth says


Ok ok ... this has got to be the top of the spike.


Seth says
M 2008-03-13 09:26:08 8298
Shouldn't you who advocated pouring concrete in oil wells be celebrating on this kind of news?

Oh i am ... i am ... but these dizzying heights, me thinks, cannot be sustained ... they reflect a bit of  exuberant greed on the part of speculators and will, in the short term, i predict, come down.  But who knows, if i am still reporting $110 next year (or even higher) then we are truly sliding down that dreaded hill. 

But note that at $110 many more alternatives become attractive than at $90 where the price probably should be sans all the speculation.

Seth says
source: foxbusiness
Crude prices soared to over $111 a barrel and neared a new all-time record after the Energy Department reported a surprise decline in U.S. oil inventories.
... just tracking the peaks as we slide down the hill.

Seth says
source: Fears emerge over Russia oil output
Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels, one of the country

Seth says
M 2008-04-15 08:33:50 8298
& that in Montana & the Dakotas & of course the ANWR which 'vrios & congress keeps off-limits.  The biggest blunder (or Clinton conspiracy) is keeping the coal in Utah & Colorado off limits.
Thing i would like to see is a graph of the history of large finds over the past 20 years compared to the growth in world demand and the depletion of producing fields ... watch The Oil Drum for this.  What i think i would see is that the Dakota find and the Brazil find are drops in the bucket in comparison to the depletion and growth in  demand. 

I had expected the price to retreat from the $113 high of 4/15 but apparently we have not seen the temporary ceeling yet.  The US gov's printing more money, of course, will not help nor will releasing of drops of oil from the strategic reserve. 

So will i be posting higher and higer peaks here more and mor often?

Seth says

The headline reads Oil Jumps Over $3 After Report On U.S. Shot Toward Iran Boat.  Of course, Iran denies.  I wonder how many oil speculators there are in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps ,,, buy, attack, sell ... hmmm?  Also those wanting to grok the relationship between the American dollar, oil, and Iranian speculation should know that the Iranians have opened their own exchange where oil is not being traded in dollars.

Seth says
source: Supply Concerns Drive Oil Prices to New Highs
The cost of light, sweet crude oil, used to produce gasoline and other key products, hit $118.05 in early trading in New York.

The jump in prices came after a Royal Dutch Shell PLC joint venture in Nigeria said Monday it would likely have to cut crude deliveries some 169,000 barrels a day in April and May because militants sabotaged a pipeline last week in the country's restive south.
But i remain unconvinced that supply problems are the biggest contributor to the surging price.  I ran into this graph that shows the price of oil purchased in various currencies compared to being purchased in gold.   Notice how the price in gold had remained pretty constant for the past 7 years.  Sorry the only source from this graph is this url.



Seth says
It jumped up almost another dollar as we were talking.  There is little doubt that speculation and inflation are driving this price.  I still think tthe price going up early, ahead of a real shortage, is healthy for the long term outlook because it give industry more time to adapt to alternatives as well as bring in more difficult fields.  But if inflation stabilizes and demand decreases this bubble will burst ... or not.  That is the drama to watch for in this node. 

Of course the other aspect of this is that some factions are making lots of money on this ... the price of bringing up a barrel and transporting it is about $9.  Those factions are growning in wealth and power.   Me thinks that they will be doing whatever to keep the price up ... the solution, of course, is wind, solar, trash, geothermal, atomic, etc.  But please your judgements elsewhere, they will just lenghten the node without contributing to the drama.


Mark de LA says
M 2008-04-22 10:01:18 8298
It's like a recession or a depression - you get everyone talking up a shortage then everyone who has hoards (anticipating a killing in the future) & the prices go up.  That, plus the total refusal of the environwacks to allow tapping into the US resources or build refineries or nuke plants makes it all work in the direction you are charting (equally available daily by drudge).  Such is what things you all have desired & reap.  Soon such methodology will lead to food rationing (already being talked up in the M$M over rice & corn (ethonol conversion cause?). 
Even townhall.com's cartoon expresses the doom!


Seth says
Keeps going ...
source: ecotechdaily
Oil prices stormed to a new record Tuesday after a Goldman Sachs report suggested crude could rise to $200/barrel in the next 24 months.
...



Seth says
source: Crude futures touch $122 as dollar weakens
Oil prices are increasingly likely to hit between $150 and $200 a barrel over the next six to 24 months, said Arjun N. Murti and other Goldman Sachs analysts in a research report.
Pick you favorite reason ... but it is a new peak.

Seth says

A new all time peak today.   Based roughfly on the monthly and quarterly graphs oil is going up by over $10/month.   So i predict oil will be above $140/barrel by June 9th.  IOW, the bubble will not burst, Bush will not stop filling the reserve. 


Mark de LA says
M 2008-06-07 07:48:30 8298
BTW, so far there are no electric or atomic airplanes & jets. What then? Nobody is talking about airplanes without oil.
You should track the national average gas price at the pump as well. In my neighborhood it is much more stable than the price of crude.

Seth says
New high today after a brief fallback.  Note that the one month graph never shows the current day. 

On May 13 the Senate passed a bill to stop filling the strategic reserve by a veto proof margin (97-1).  But Bush is right this will have no effect on our graph here ... the hesitation in the rise of graph that started around that time notwistanding.  Seriously those were unrelated.  It does, however, make good sense to fill the reserve when oil goes low, and release when it goes high.  Used that way it becomes a slight break to runaway prices. 

Seth says
M 2008-05-18 08:59:38 8298
Energy Prices in the U.S. since 1975: this timeplot shows how the cost of gasoline in the US is strongly correlated with oil import from foreign countries, while the cost of electricity is not as strongly correlated.
FYI,
(Yet we still can't drill for much of our own oil)

Big jump today.  Word has it that this is a speculative bubble that is ripe for the bursting.  I don't know, prolly is, maybe isn't.  What we do know, however, is that there are some people who are getting filthy rich on this bubble to the detrement of the rest of the economy.  Seems to me that a smart politician would really study the mechinism of speculation here and see if there was some way to put a brake on it without infringing on the free marketplace.

Seth says
M 2008-05-20 12:24:25 8298
Seth (above): ... What we do know, however, is that there are some people who are getting filthy rich on this bubble to the detriment of the rest of the economy.
...spoken out of envy like a true Progressive! For most businesses whose raw materials increase in price one would have some sympathy.  Some people complained about the tech bubble which brought into power Ebay & Google! What's different here? (& the housing bubble) The problem is the environmentalists & politicians who restrict the supply side in the supply <=> demand equation.  Higher prices make higher taxes for the spenders of your money - you should be smiling. Your dreams of pouring concrete in the oil wells nevertheless has been realized by a commodity bubble which is just as effective & less irreversible.


There was no part of envey in what i said.  The question is to parse out how much of the current price here is supply/demand driven and how much is speculation.  To think clearly about that we need to know where that line is drawn.  Me thinks the futures market has evolved for speculators to make money, but not necessarily for suppliers and  customers to get a fair price.  I think that clear knowledge alone, spoken by the right people, can burst this bubble.


Seth says
New peak today, oil having jumped up over $11 in the last two days.   Too bad, as it looked like the bubble had burst ... see dramatic fall of graph on the left since last peak.   As to why ... maybe look here.   Inevitably as this keeps going up, it spells the death knoll for a easy recovery of our economy in the short run.   Yet maybe, just maybe, it signals the urgancy to retrofit our energy infrastructure far more effectively than a rise in global temperature.  I guess that's why i'm happy to watch it rise. 

Seth says

M 2008-06-06 09:52:58 8298
shet: ... I guess that's why i'm happy to watch it rise. 
... Wait until UPS starts charging 2X what they do now to ship your merchandise & see what effect that will have on your business!
Wow its really jumping up.  Look at the graph tomorrow ... it will look like an almost vertical jump right back up to (and perhaps above) the previous peak. Btw, people are switching more and more to Fedex ... speaktomecatalog.com is no exception.  UPS is jut too expensive.   Last weekend i test drove a Toyota Prius.   Nice car but i'm gonna hold out for a 100mpg or better which i expect will be available within 5 years.  Denise thinks that mail order will flourish during times of high gas prices (now $2.25/gal here in Washington) because people will not want to drive to the mall.  I'm not so sure ... but i expect big changes in all kinds of businesses and ours is no exception.  Change or die ... change or die ... yes we can ... yes we can ...

Seth says

Long time no update ...

Oil drops below $50/barrel. 

Now we finally see the dimensions of this busted bubble.

Gas hits $1.99 in Renton Washington.

How low will it go?

Seth says
It keeps going down.  Oil is at 48, dow at 8502.

Me thinks that this is going to be one of the best early indicators of the depression.  The oil bubble helped create the depression ... now watch it go down as we search for the bottom.  When it bottoms out, the stock market will be at the bottom too.  When it starts seriously going up, me thinks the depression will start to be over and the market will be recovering.  Then it will soar again and start to become a break to the "old" economy - yet that soaring oil price will be a boon to the alternative energy economy.  That is my predictive script.  It could take up to 4 years to play out. 

Seth says
    Oil 41 ... Dow 8895 ... gas 1.73/gal in Renton

Still keeps going down ... even as OPEC cuts 2.2 million barrels production.

There does not seem to be much correlation between the stock market and price of oil in the short term. 






Seth says

Oil 38 ... Dow 8800

Oil going down ... stocks going up this week.

Seth says

Oil 35 ... Dow 8600

Of course this was the day Bush put out the news of the bridge loan to auto industry

Is this the bottom?  Were you to go long on oil, this would be the day to buy.


Seth says

Oil back to 35 ... Dow 8019

The bubble you see to the left started when Israel invaded Gaza ... it has totally burst now.  Even though oil has been falling for about 7 days, gas still is up over $2 here.  I wonder when gas will start to fall again?

Mark de LA says
Barrons (live market) has it:

I noticed the uptick in gasoline prices recently even though the price/barrel was decreasing. wonder why?
Even Hugo Chavez is shitting his pants.

Seth says

Oil and stocks continue to slide

... oil 34 Dow 7795. 

Seth says

Oil on it's way back up.  Dow around 7400.  Most commodities and gold up also.  Dollar is down.   Recovery or inflation?


Seth says

Oil starts back up, "driven by the prospect of higher oil demand as major economies recover" ... the dollar floats down ... the bear market bounce looses steam. 

Seth says

Oil definitely heading back up this summer.  Dollar went down to 80 cents.  One thing holding the dollar up is China wanting the Yen to be cheep.  

Seth says

In case you didn't notice, oil is seriously going up.  Dollar index is at .80 and dow is 8758. 

Seth says

Oil took a big jump this morning and is back above where it was a fue weeks ago. Perhaps on the usual warnings of oil running out.

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